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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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The only thing the models are truly showing in the long term is a slightly above to above normal overall pattern where the very hot/humid stuff doesn't last more than a two or three days before a front moves through.  Seems repetitive over the next 10 days. Rinse wash repeat.  Not seeing the end of summer anywhere in site, just more of a roller-coaster pattern - you know the type that makes everyone angry on this forum!

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7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

The only thing the models are truly showing in the long term is a slightly above to above normal overall pattern where the very hot/humid stuff doesn't last more than a two or three days before a front moves through.  Seems repetitive over the next 10 days. Rinse wash repeat.  Not seeing the end of summer anywhere in site, just more of a roller-coaster pattern - you know the type that makes everyone angry on this forum!

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  

Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  

centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  

Day 11

Screenshot_20250721_175540_Chrome.jpg

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12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  

Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  

centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  

Day 11

Screenshot_20250721_175540_Chrome.jpg

Sweet. < 50% chance of BN

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25 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

The only thing the models are truly showing in the long term is a slightly above to above normal overall pattern where the very hot/humid stuff doesn't last more than a two or three days before a front moves through.  Seems repetitive over the next 10 days. Rinse wash repeat.  Not seeing the end of summer anywhere in site, just more of a roller-coaster pattern - you know the type that makes everyone angry on this forum!

There’s almost no cold fronts. Basically wash out. After the big heat Thurs-Saturday.. temps cool a bit but dews remain very high right thru day 10 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s the support? That model flops around like a set of saggies in desperate need of a brassiere 

the 12z gfs did have that idea of carving out a seasonably decent trough over the EC.  That's been the idea for a while but delayed a bit, I talked about it last week.  Looks more aggressive than at that time, though

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

the 12z gfs did have that idea of carving out a seasonably decent trough over the EC.  That's been the idea for a while but delayed a bit, I talked about it last week.  Looks more aggressive than at that time, though

"Both the West Coast and the Northeast are forecast to be  influenced by weak mid-level troughs bringing near normal temperatures to the  West Coast and near to below normal temperature chances to the Northeast. "

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