July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[mreaves]

43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Anyone think Costco's will be open tomorrow? Want to try and go chasing after work but I need to go to Costco 

The one here in VT is closed tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

What’s this shit moving in

[Cyclone-68]

Watch coming for the north country shortly 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s this shit moving in

Is this like a weak pre-frontal trough or something? Looks like it on WV or some weak embedded shortwave trough ahead of the larger s/w trough

[weatherwiz]

what a supercell in far northwestern Maine

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s this shit moving in

weak flow in the summer's a bitch to figure this shit out sometimes.  all these crickets in the flow.   

that band is between the fronts given WPC, which is kind of a piece of shit surface obs option anyway, because they only update the fucker 3 hours at a time.   so who knows ....  what's triggering a band of convection doing between these boundaries

 

it seems to decaying on radar/ sat trends.   but the surface obs on the post side of it are cold.  it's in the low to mid 60s under that wedged clearing over eastern NY this is nuanced scenario.  that's doesn't seem like anything's going to trigger there. 

 

[dryslot]

Watches hoisted up here.

DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC
   border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should
   intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into
   midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE
   and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper
   70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low
   80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While
   the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario,
   it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe
   convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint
   Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with
   a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts
   producing damaging winds seems probable.

[HoarfrostHubb]

In case anyone really can’t figure this out on their own:

https://customerservice.costco.com/app/answers/answer_view/a_id/701/~/what-are-costco’s-holiday-closures%3F

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s this shit moving in

My trees need it. Sorry about rain on the ski bob. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Next chance for a heat wave is Sun-Mon-Tue ...    Tuesday's a bit of a wild card.  May fail, but Sun-Mon are modeled as low or middle 90s. 

Beyond that... there doesn't appear to be an ensemble supported cooler transport, so it's not clear how far down toward normal the ambience will settle off.   It may in fact stay modestly above normal during the remainder of the week. 

Beyond that...watching for the possibility of a newer warm ridge emergence.  The spatial synoptic layout of the ensemble, particularly in the EPS mean, for that that period show a distinct tendency for lowering heights in the Pac Nw...   At this time of year that teleconnects to a ridge in the mid lat continent down stream.   We're talking D10+ so the operational runs don't really have any responsibility to necessarily show that - so we'll see.  But that tendency preceded the eventual emergence of the bigger heat event recently when it too was in the 10 day to 2 week lead, but only vaguely.   It seems to be this is a leitmotif so far this warm season - could be an indicator for a warm summer if that continues.   In the meantime, I do suspect we'll have to contend with bigger heat once or twice during these next 3 weeks at some point.  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Next chance for a heat wave is Sun-Mon-Tue ...    Tuesday's a bit of a wild card.  May fail, but Sun-Mon are modeled as low or middle 90s. 

Beyond that... there doesn't appear to be an ensemble supported cooler transport, so it's not clear how far down toward normal the ambience will settle off.   It may in fact stay modestly above normal during the remainder of the week. 

Beyond that...watching for the possibility of a newer warm ridge emergence.  The spatial synoptic layout of the ensemble, particularly in the EPS mean, for that that period show a distinct tendency for lowering heights in the Pac Nw...   At this time of year that teleconnects to a ridge in the mid lat continent down stream.   We're talking D10+ so the operational runs don't really have any responsibility to necessarily show that - so we'll see.  But that tendency preceded the eventual emergence of the bigger heat event recently when it too was in the 10 day to 2 week lead, but only vaguely.   It seems to be this is a leitmotif so far this warm season - could be an indicator for a warm summer if that continues.   I do suspect we have run in with big heat again during these next 3 weeks at some point.  

Looks like we should be solidly above average, even behind any FROPAs...the only thing we'll noticeably have is a brief period of lower dews. People could call this cheap or whatever because it could be alot of 90/91's but some of the typical torch spots will have a good shot to rack up some 90's over the next few weeks. A quick glimpse of the pattern too should yield hope for MCS potential but we probably get screwed and everything goes from northern Plains, upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley

[dendrite]

Let’s wash out Center Harbor and the Weirs again

[dryslot]

Those cell's near Berlin went severe with some hail in them.

[Chrisrotary12]

NNE round 1.

[dendrite]

Almost 80dBZ up in the county must’ve been fun

[dendrite]

Shit I don’t need hail

[Typhoon Tip]

Impressive CB structures visible here on the NW-N horizon associated with that...

I can also see TCU ( new) just up the way so I suspect Rt 2 may take off down here soon

[dendrite]

Contoocook reporting 1/2” hail again

[Torch Tiger]

A few light storms, nothing too heavy.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Shit I don’t need hail

No we don't need hail.

[Typhoon Tip]

yup there we go  nice cell near orange

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

NNE round 1.

Nashua can't miss this one.  congrats

[Chrisrotary12]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Nashua can't miss this one.  congrats

Make a bet? Nashua always misses

[Chrisrotary12]

Cell by Jackson is mean. Nice meso. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Make a bet? Nashua always misses

congrats in advance (cia)

[NoCORH4L]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup there we go  nice cell near orange

Will be warned soon

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like Hubbdave gets the goods.  will probably split N/S in this area, not expecting anything.

[dryslot]

Bethel-Rumford corridor now warned, Healthy cell too near Bartlett NH.

[NoCORH4L]

My folks are near 89/93 interchange, says traffic at a standstill almost due to violent weather.

[bch2014]

Storming in Meredith, but nothing too out of the ordinary.