July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing all the stalled fronts and cloudy weather in July which we did not have in the 90s especially?

 

More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers.
 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first 10 days of July have been very warm across the New York City area. 

New York City-Central Park: 79.0° (27th warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 79.7° (8th warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.0° (11th warmest)
Newark: 82.2° (7th warmest)

Mean monthly temperatures for cases with July 1-10 mean temperatures at or above the 2025 figures ere as follows:

New York City-Central Park: 78.8° 
New York City-JFK Airport: 78.4° 
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.1° (8th warmest)
Newark: 80.8°

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. 

Some of the guidance suggests that another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.962 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

Interesting how JFK is running 0.7 degrees hotter than NYC.

By the way today and tomorrow are Manhattanhenge days!!

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers.
 

 

 

 

Yes and much better weather, sunnier, less humid, etc.

We were lucky to get four summers in a row like that from 2010-2013

By the way, you left out 1980, 1991 and 2002, those were some dry and hot summers too!!!

Could also add in 1944, 1948, 1949 and 1953 although that's before my time lol.

 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, it does a good job providing an overview of one of the major consequences of humanity's collective choice to continue to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. I believe that Matt Luongo, one of the climate scientists on the interview, said it correctly when he stated that it is "a political and social decision on how much we want to not emit CO2." I believe a combination of motivated reasoning, cognitive psychological biases, limited leadership capacity, and structural realities of complex societies (built on a status quo foundation, poor capacity to make rapid changes due to the complex relationships involved, etc.) have shaped humanity's collective decision. 

There is some debate over whether the AMOC will completely break down or merely slow. In one recent surprise, scientists found that the SMOC (southern meridional overturning circulation off Antarctica has actually reversed. That outcome could lead to the oceans releasing some of the CO2 that they have absorbed. Moreover, because the ocean and atmosphere is coupled, the changes related to ocean currents have synoptic implications. The rapid warming of the Western Pacific Ocean's negative PDO-type circulation that is enhancing drought in the Southwest is one example. 

 

I am looking forward to the next in this series of podcasts that they are putting out this summer. Very informative.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and much better weather, sunnier, less humid, etc.

We were lucky to get four summers in a row like that from 2010-2013

By the way, you left out 1980, 1991 and 2002, those were some dry and hot summers too!!!

Could also add in 1944, 1948, 1949 and 1953 although that's before my time lol.

 

The reason the 1995 summer was so humid with the nearly 130° heat index around 7-15 was due to corn sweat pooling under the inversion and getting transported to the East Coast.

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting how JFK is running 0.7 degrees hotter than NYC.

By the way today and tomorrow are Manhattanhenge days!!

 

JFK has been warmer than Central Park on a number of occasions in July. The last such time was 2009 (JFK: 73.68° and Central Park: 73.66°) The largest difference was 0.3° in 1969 (JFK: 75.0° and Central Park: 74.7°). It's only happened during cool July cases. 2025 would be the first very warm July case where JFK was warmer.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Polynesian civilization prior to the arrival of Europeans in the early 18th century. 

I suspect that today’s teens will be among the leading edge of a generation or generations that won’t view fossil fuels as indispensable and will see the vast planet-scale harm they have inflicted and then will move aggressively to curb their burning, even if the short-term effect is disruptive.They won’t believe the past generations who propped up the fossil fuels-centric society have the standing to object, much less complain about disruptions. After all, had they pursued a very gradual phaseout, the warming would have been limited and the societal burden on the younger generations would have been much less than that which they will inherit. 

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

I suspect that had society gone down the very gradual path of phaseout beginning around 1995-2000 when the issue first gained clarity, considerable progress could have been made. Had society pursued the effort along the lines of a Manhattan or Apollo Project, I suspect substantial and rapid progress would have occurred. Those pathways were foregone.

I do agree that nuclear power is part of the solution. I'd also like to see a really aggressive R&D project into fusion, as it offers the greatest potential in the medium- and long-term. 

[Dark Star]

43 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

Unfortunately, the world is still dangerous.  Technology has outpaced the advancement of human nature.  Though we wish to see a utopian world, it cannot be achieved until we are ALL ready...

[psv88]

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Polynesian civilization prior to the arrival of Europeans in the early 18th century. 

I suspect that today’s teens will be among the leading edge of a generation or generations that won’t view fossil fuels as indispensable and will see the vast planet-scale harm they have inflicted and then will move aggressively to curb their burning, even if the short-term effect is disruptive.They won’t believe the past generations who propped up the fossil fuels-centric society have the standing to object, much less complain about disruptions. After all, had they pursued a very gradual phaseout, the warming would have been limited and the societal burden on the younger generations would have been much less than that which they will inherit. 

Gen Alpha are entering HS in the fall. I was hoping we would have this fixed by now, but here we are.

 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

I feel like we are getting close to plasma and fusion energy. In the mean time we should be investing in the next generation nuclear fission plants, especially with What are Small Modular Reactors. Lower in cost. Can be built off site in a factory/assembly line type setting, lowering costs greatly.
If the US, China, and India get on board with SMRs, and get them built out to replace fossil fuel plants, we can take a big chunk out of what is causing CO2 levels to rise.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-fusion-boron-plasma
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I feel like we are getting close to plasma and fusion energy. In the mean time we should be investing in the next generation nuclear fission plants, especially with What are Small Modular Reactors. Lower in cost. Can be built off site in a factory/assembly line type setting, lowering costs greatly.
If the US, China, and India get on board with SMRs, and get them built out to replace fossil fuel plants, we can take a big chunk out of what is causing CO2 levels to rise.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-fusion-boron-plasma
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs

We are now investing in coal again. Good luck!

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

First evening all week I wasn’t a sweaty mess after a 45 minute walk outside. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Gen Alpha are entering HS in the fall. I was hoping we would have this fixed by now, but here we are.

 

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:


PHL: 90
TEB: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 85
NYC: 84
ACY: 84
JFK: 82
BLM: 80
ISP: 79

[nycwinter]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

 you find high dewpoints beautiful whatever floats your boat...

[nycwinter]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

back in the 1970's and early 1980's or even earlier the us had deadly heat waves that killed hundreds before widespread ac became common.. europeans will have to become use to getting ac..

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

[Sundog]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

I think many times people in the US have a level of self centered-ness. 

The USA is only responsible for like 10% of global emissions. 

The US can be completely greenhouse gas neutral tomorrow and the problem would have barely changed. 

A billion people still go to the bathroom in the fields, a few billion more don't have clean water to drink. They're not interested in nor care about climate change.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

i thought the amoc was slowing down  if that continues and it stops would that not mean a colder europe in the future?

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

What's truly mind-blowing is that in only 50 years temperatures have increased by that much whereas they've been mostly stable for 10s of 1000s of years prior to that. 

[forkyfork]

societal breakdown is the only way climate change will be stopped

[forkyfork]

[SACRUS]

 

82 / 71 partly cloudy  - sun poking through.  Warm/humid the next few days mostly 80s- hotter inland spots away from sea breeze may make it to 90  Scattered storms Sun late and more Monday.  Hot/humid week ahead and overall hotter into the beyond.

 

7/12 - 7/14: Warm / humid storms rain focus in Monday
7/15 - 7/18 : Hotter / humid.
7/19 - Beyond :  Hot / humid  wetter overall

 

 

[steve392]

Just uncomfortable out.  

[Dark Star]

49 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

I volunteer you to get China on board...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i thought the amoc was slowing down  if that continues and it stops would that not mean a colder europe in the future?

Some newer studies are backing off those older predictions. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:


Highs:

EWR: 99 (2011)
NYC: 99 (1966)
LGA: 98 (1966)
JFK: 98 (2011)
New Brnswck: 98 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1945)
NYC: 57 (1926)
LGA: 59 (1940)
JFK: 58 (1973)
New Brnswck: 48 (1945)



Historical:

 

 

1842: One of the most severe hurricanes in the history of the coastal Carolinas struck the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the evening of the 12th into the 13th. The entire village of Portsmouth was destroyed except for one building. The storm apparently passed inland near Norfolk, VA and caused massive flooding from Virginia into Pennsylvania. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936: The hottest three-day periods up to this time in United States history occurred beginning on this date as the average temperature was 88.5°; the second warmest such period occurred three days earlier. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1951 - The Kaw River flood occurred. The month of June that year was the wettest of record for the state of Kansas, and during the four days preceding the flood much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri received more than ten inches of rain. Flooding in the Midwest claimed 41 lives, left 200 thousand persons homeless, and caused a billion dollars property damage. Kansas City was hardest hit. The central industrial district sustained 870 million dollars property damage. (The Kansas City Weather Alamnac)

 

1974: Philmont Scout Ranch, Colfax County, N. Mex.-- Lightning struck a group of scouts and leaders who had gathered beneath a nylon dining canopy to avoid heavy rain; killed one, injured six. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1975: A nearly stationary front north to south over Pennsylvania caused rain and thunderstorms over the region for 3 days beginning on this date. Amounts of two inches plus in 24 hours and 4 inches plus for the 3 days were common. In Pennsylvania, Perkasie reported 7 inches, Lansdale: 5.11 inches, West Chester: 6.94 inches through the 13th; and Schwenksville reported 6 inches in 30 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: First 90° day of year was very late in the year. This was the latest 90°F day ever recorded in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1980 - Lightning struck a large broiler house in Branford, FL, and the ensuing fire broiled 11,000 nearly ready broilers. Firemen were able to save a few thousand chickens, however. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cool air invaded the High Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 37 degrees. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in the central U.S. produced 6.5 inches of rain at Fort Dodge, IA, and 2.5 inches in one hour at St. Joseph MO. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Dakotas, including baseball size hail at Aberdeen, SD, and softball size hail near Fullerton, ND. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in Arkansas and northeastern Texas, with 6.59 inches reported at Mesquite, TX, in just an hour and fifteen minutes. Garland, TX, reported water up to the tops of cars following a torrential downpour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms over eastern Kansas deluged McFarland with more than six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms in Wyoming produced up to eighteen inches of dime size hail near Rock Springs, along with torrential rains, and a three foot high wall of mud and water swept into the town causing more than 1.5 million dollars damage. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Arkansas, deluging Dardanelle, AR, with 3.50 inches of rain in less than twenty minutes. About seventy cows were killed when lightning struck a tree in Jones County, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1993: Thunderstorms dumped up to 4 inches of rain in 30 minutes in the Pierre and Ft. Pierre areas in South Dakota. As golf ball size hail also pounded the area the runoff from the heavy rains piled the hail into drifts five feet high. On the same day a severe thunderstorm dumped large hail and heavy rains in the Lantry area in Dewey County. The water which could not be absorbed by already saturated ground ran four to five feet deep through some buildings in town.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees, overnight lows on falling to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s created heat indexes peaking at 125 degrees. Electricity and water usage reached record levels, causing periodic outages.



1996: Hurricane Bertha makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC with maximum winds of 105 mph, but the storm surge dealt the most devastation. The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, were declared federal disaster areas. Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For many, it was the second hit in the ten months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area. The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and included storm surge flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops. Over 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches along a coastal strip from South Carolina to Maine. Overall, as many as 12 deaths resulted with 8 in the U.S. and territories.

 

1997: Lightning can hit the ground 15+ miles from the thunderstorm. Two golfers at a Tampa Florida course were hit by the first observed lightning bolt of a distant thunderstorm; it came from the storms cirrus anvil. The sun was shining at their location and one of the two men was killed.  (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

1998: The temperature at the Dallas/Ft. Worth Airport in Texas rose to 100°. Dallas saw the temperature go to 100° or hotter on 56 days during the summer of 1998. There were 39 nights that the mercury never dropped below 80°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Hail up to the size of softballs fell in and around Onaka, SD damaging vehicles, farm equipment, and homes. High winds along with hail up to the size of baseballs caused some structural, vehicle, crop, and tree damage in and around Astoria, SD and Toronto, SD.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: July 12th to July 20th Reno, Nevada: A record string of days with temperatures above 101°F: nine straight days. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2011: High humidity levels and dew points were higher during the summer 2011 compared with 2010, resulting in unusually warm nighttime temperatures. A low temperature of 81 at Richmond on July 12th was the first ever daily low of 80 and above. A steady southwest wind overnight also contributed to this event. (Ref.NWS, Wakefield, Virginia - A New Record High Minimum Temperature)

2022: On the evening of July 12 between 8PM and 10 PM around 4.50 inches of rain fell in the Buchanan County, Virginia area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

 

[SACRUS]

83 / 71 still in/out sun