July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm with readings generally in the lower 80s. A warm front will cross the region tomorrow night and Tuesday with some showers and thundershowers. Some locations have the potential to receive excessive amounts of rain.

Afterward, it will turn somewhat warmer. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 Friday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs

 

PHL: 92
TEB: 89
TTN: 86
EWR: 86
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 85
LGA: 84
JFK: 83
NYC: 83
ISP: 82
BLM: 81

[psv88]

81 today. We are stuck under this cloud deck all day. Just hugged the spine of Long Island. Annoying 

[doncat]

85/71 today...same split 3 straight days.

[Snowlover11]

better get some rain tomorrow.

[Snowlover11]

Flood Watch issued for everyone besides LI.

 

1-3” of rain with some picking up 3-5” of rain.

Rates could reach 2+” an hour.