July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hot weather with low humidity and clear blue skies is ideal summer weather!

The years he went to Greece is probably when we had that kind of weather here (1991, 1993, 1995*, 1999, 2002).

I'm putting an asterisk next to 1995 because although August was historically dry, late July had some of the most humid kind of heat I've ever experienced!

 

I enjoyed the beach days better during the cooler summers like 2009 and 2004. Much smaller crowds coming into Long Beach with less traffic and parking issues.

Also significantly better temperatures for bike riding the boardwalk. During that cool 2004 summer there were plenty of days in the 70s in Long Beach. So on one occasion I was able to get a 40 mile bike ride in.

During some of the warmest summers, it was a struggle to even get a good 10-20 miler in at times.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the coldest July 4th low for many across the region.
 

Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	NEWCOMB	COOP	37
VT	MOUNT MANSFIELD	COOP	37
NY	LAKE PLACID 2 S	COOP	38
NY	RAY BROOK	COOP	39
VT	CAVENDISH	COOP	39
VT	ENOSBURG FALLS	COOP	39

 

 for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

PA	TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT	WBAN	35
NJ	MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	39
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	41
NJ	SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	41
PA	PHOENIXVILLE 1 E	COOP	42
NJ	NEWTON	COOP	42
PA	EAST STROUDSBURG	COOP	43
NJ	HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	43
NJ	INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	43
NJ	PEMBERTON	COOP	44
PA	HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN	COOP	45
NJ	HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	45
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	45
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	45
NJ	ESTELL MANOR	COOP	46
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	46
NJ	TOMS RIVER	COOP	46
PA	NESHAMINY FALLS	COOP	46
PA	BUCKSVILLE	COOP	46
NJ	SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	46

 

Data for July 4, 1986 through July 4, 1986
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	41
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	43
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	43
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	44
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	44
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	44
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	45
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	47
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	47
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	47
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	48
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	48
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	48
CT	GROTON	COOP	48
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	49
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	49
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	50
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	50
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	50
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	51
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	51
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	51
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	52
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	52
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	52
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	52
NY	VANDERBILT MUSEUM	COOP	53
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	54
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	54
CT	NEW HAVEN	COOP	54
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	54
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	54
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	55
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	55
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	55
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	56
NY	GREENPORT POWER HOUSE	COOP	57
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	58
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	59
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	59

 

I think the low was 50 even in Central Park in August 1986 in the period I referenced in my above post, Chris.  It felt like early fall, very low humidity, clear blue skies, very crisp, my first time viewing the Perseids and it was the best I ever saw them from here.  The only time I saw them better was from the Poconos a few years ago, in varying colors (something you can't see in a light polluted area like we live in.) You can't even see the Milky Way in our disgustingly high level of light pollution, something you can see in the Poconos even during twilight before the sky is fully dark!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

83 / 73 been 70 - 80% cloudy most the day.  Late clearing could get some mid /upper 80s

 

 

It's been mostly sunny here since before noon.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The area around NYC has been fortunate in recent years that the most significant record low max temperatures have been going by to the north. If LGA was able to beat their previous low max of 86° back in 2013 by 2° like BTV did, then they would have their first 88° low. But luckily they have only had a low max of 84° in recent years.
 

 

I don't mind the no record high mins but it's rather boring without triple digit temperatures, luckily we got that in June, otherwise our summers have been mediocre since 2013.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Both things can be true at the same time. Record dew points with the sea breeze front and convection getting pushed to our west. So we get a more stable high dew point marine layer along the coast.  

the warmer air can also hold more moisture before it starts to rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I enjoyed the beach days better during the cooler summers like 2009 and 2004. Much smaller crowds coming into Long Beach with less traffic and parking issues.

Also significantly better temperatures for bike riding the boardwalk. During that cool 2004 summer there were plenty of days in the 70s in Long Beach. So on one occasion I was able to get a 40 mile bike ride in.

During some of the warmest summers, it was a struggle to even get a good 10-20 miler in at times.

How did you like 2010 when it was hot without too much humidity?

I'd love to know how the Bermuda High was aligned that summer to give us such wonderful weather.

To be more specific, how was it aligned in the July 4-7 period when JFK was 100+ on three out of four days?

Was it similar to how it was aligned in early July 1966 when JFK was 100+ for three consecutive days?

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

How bout them clouds. 

it cleared out here just before 11 lol

[SACRUS]

 

 

86 / 74

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I enjoyed the beach days better during the cooler summers like 2009 and 2004. Much smaller crowds coming into Long Beach with less traffic and parking issues.

Also significantly better temperatures for bike riding the boardwalk. During that cool 2004 summer there were plenty of days in the 70s in Long Beach. So on one occasion I was able to get a 40 mile bike ride in.

During some of the warmest summers, it was a struggle to even get a good 10-20 miler in at times.

The crowds are ridiculous these days in town during the summer-September is the best month by far. It wasn’t as crowded before Sandy and all the new construction. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How did you like 2010 when it was hot without too much humidity?

I'd love to know how the Bermuda High was aligned that summer to give us such wonderful weather.

To be more specific, how was it aligned in the July 4-7 period when JFK was 100+ on three out of four days?

Was it similar to how it was aligned in early July 1966 when JFK was 100+ for three consecutive days?

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes.

The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. 

Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. 

I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

[WestBabylonWeather]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes.

The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. 

Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. 

I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

I remember 2010-2011. The dump trucks were out taking the snow away 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes.

The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. 

Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. 

I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

I wonder if they need to make those beaches private and only let local residents have access?

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes.

The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. 

Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. 

I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

How high was surge from Sandy there? 9 feet?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

86 / 74

it's been mostly sunny all afternoon :-)

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The summer of 2010 was really crowded in Long Beach with all the NYC to LB beach trains that summer. Very little parking was available and the local restaurants like Ginos were packed. Never experienced a summer like that in Long Beach with the lack of sea breezes.

The 2010-2011 winter was one of the best winters ever in Long Beach. Snow mountains down near the boardwalk near Riverside where all the road crews brought the snow off the streets in dump trucks. 

Then the extreme July 2011 heat and the major flooding in August. First with the 11” deluge in a few hours around the 14th and the Irene coastal flooding near the end of the month. 

I moved out before Sandy. My old place was one of the few spots on the barrier Island where the flooding didn’t come into the house. The street flooded and it came over the curb. But the tide stopped rising 2 inches before coming over the top step into the first floor. Came back a few days after Sandy to visit all my old neighbors.

the 2010-2011 couplet goes into a long list of historically hot summers followed by very snowy winters, other couplets like that include 1955-56, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96 and of course 2010-11

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if they need to make those beaches private and only let local residents have access?

 

The city of Long Beach made a decision a long time ago that they were going to use the beach for generating revenue. Atlantic Beach to the west has beaches only for residents plus private beach clubs which many from places like the 5 towns and Garden City were members. Lido Beach has an only for residents section plus some beach parks for residents of the Town of Hempstead. Point Lookout is mostly residents only.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The city of Long Beach made a decision a long time ago that they were going to use the beach for generating revenue. Atlantic Beach to the west has beaches only for residents plus private beach clubs which many from places like the 5 towns and Garden City were members. Lido Beach has an only for residents section plus some beach parks for residents of the Town of Hempstead. Point Lookout is mostly residents onky.

I used to go to Atlantic Beach, I loved it there.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The best Chinese restaurant on the South Shore in the old days used to be right at the base of the Atlantic Beach bridge.

I loved walking right across lol

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Eh. When I say not good I don't mean unclean. I just mean it's always wavy. It's ocean facing after all. 

It's also not as crystal clear and most of the time you have to travel a distance to get to the sea. 

I've been to many beaches on the south shore and barrier islands. They're all very similar in terms of style and type. 

My biggest gripe is with the breaking waves which come with wind present or not. They're always there. 

 

The waves are what make the beach great…

[wdrag]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

No thread yet, but considering on for I95 corridor northwest across NNJ and se NYS for iso 5" in 3-6 hours Mon afternoon-Night. Will review more guidance late in the day and repost around 8P.  12z/13 SPC HREF is more or less mirroring the heavier GFS qpf. Am pretty sure the iso ~ 5" occurs but where?. 

 

No thread as of 609P/13 but since PHI has a Flood Watch posted..am leaning to an issuance as an OBS-NOW FF thread at 6A Monday...  all of the above pertains.  Will also look and see if I need to combine the wfront/qstry front additional for Tuesday.  

Have a good night. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm with readings generally in the lower 80s. A warm front will cross the region tomorrow night and Tuesday with some showers and thundershowers. Some locations have the potential to receive excessive amounts of rain.

Afterward, it will turn somewhat warmer. The heat will likely peak on Thursday and Friday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 Friday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs

 

PHL: 92
TEB: 89
TTN: 86
EWR: 86
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 85
LGA: 84
JFK: 83
NYC: 83
ISP: 82
BLM: 81

[psv88]

81 today. We are stuck under this cloud deck all day. Just hugged the spine of Long Island. Annoying 

[doncat]

85/71 today...same split 3 straight days.

[Snowlover11]

better get some rain tomorrow.

[Snowlover11]

Flood Watch issued for everyone besides LI.

 

1-3” of rain with some picking up 3-5” of rain.

Rates could reach 2+” an hour. 

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thanks. Looking forward to crossing Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas off my list 

Enjoy. Montana will be one of the relatively cooler spots in a sea of warm this week. Good timing.  If this was the winter, then people on here would be commenting on how another cooldown missed to our west again.

 

[winterwarlock]

Year without a summer

[steve392]

76 and so dam humid already. Had a brief downpour around 5am ish.  

[qg_omega]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Year without a summer

Its been record hot????