July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Most models I was looking at had us partly to mostly cloudy for today and tomorrow, between 50-90% cloud cover approximately, so not far off. I saw some TV forecasts that didn't even mention the cloud cover though.

We are stuck in this perpetually moist airmass with dews constantly near 70 and above. It seems lows dont even drop into the 60s anymore in July here because it's so humid. Guess we should be thankful, there's so many fires burning right now in Canada that if we got a cool dry Canadian airmass right now our skies would still be gray lol

Yep, like a few years ago.

This July is probably going to turn out only slightly above normal, not a bakeoff July like some of the historic summers we've had.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our longest heatwave around the area was 20 days from 7-29-88 to 8-17-88 at Newark. The ridge axis and strongest 500mb height anomaly was centered over the Great Lakes. At the surface the Bermuda high was pressed to our south with lower pressure over New England keeping the flow more SW. 

 

 

Just referring to New York City and Long Island since I remember 1988 where the heat was focused west of us.  We never hit 100 here in 1988 and we had shorter heatwaves that were interrupted by a lot of back door fronts.  1988 is not listed on the NYC longest heatwaves page nor is it high up on the 90+ day summer list, but years like 1993, 1999 and 2002 are prominently featured.

As I remember it, 1993 specifically had a heat ridge that held up fronts in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, which is why that area had historic flooding while we had endless summer.

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Just referring to New York City and Long Island since I remember 1988 where the heat was focused west of us.  We never hit 100 here in 1988 and we had shorter heatwaves that were interrupted by a lot of back door fronts.  1988 is not listed on the NYC longest heatwaves page, but years like 1993, 1999 and 2002 are prominently featured.

As I remember it, 1993 specifically had a heat ridge that held up fronts in the Midwest and Mississippi River Valley, which is why that area had historic flooding while we had endless summer.

 

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

Wow that's absolutely amazing Chris... is that the Bermuda High centered over SE PA? That's the equivalent of Sandy making landfall in S NJ, you rarely if ever see a track and position like that.

Did the same thing happen in 1999 and 2002 during the very long heatwaves in those years too?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge during that 10 day heatwave in Central Park from 7-7-93 to 7-16-93 was centered in SE PA. Lower heights and pressures over New England kept the flow W to SW here. So no onshore flow influence back then like we are getting now.

 

This was the most intense and extreme heatwave I've ever experienced, both extreme in duration and intense in how long peak triple digit heat lasted.  Most of the posters who didn't experience 1993 have no idea what kind of heat we had back then and have never experienced anything like it in our area!

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This was the most intense and extreme heatwave I've ever experienced, both extreme in duration and intense in how long peak triple digit heat lasted.  Most of the posters who didn't experience 1993 have no idea what kind of heat we had back then and have never experienced anything like it in our area!

The only thing I can realistically compare it to is the December 1992 noreaster in terms of how intense it was and how long it lasted.  The 1990s were chock full of extreme weather the likes of which we have not experienced since!

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow that's absolutely amazing Chris... is that the Bermuda High centered over SE PA? That's the equivalent of Sandy making landfall in S NJ, you rarely if ever see a track and position like that.

Did the same thing happen in 1999 and 2002 during the very long heatwaves in those years too?

 

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer.

 

 

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	18
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	18
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	18
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	16
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	14

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	13
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	11
PORT JERVIS	COOP	10
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
ST. JAMES	COOP	10
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	8
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY	COOP	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP	WBAN	7
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
Syracuse Area	ThreadEx	7
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	6
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6
SHRUB OAK	COOP	6
MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	6

 

 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

their per capita emissions are lower than ours

China has most of our manufacturing with a lot less of emissions control. 

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer.

 

 

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	18
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	18
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	18
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	16
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	14

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	13
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	11
PORT JERVIS	COOP	10
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
ST. JAMES	COOP	10
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	8
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY	COOP	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP	WBAN	7
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
Syracuse Area	ThreadEx	7
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	6
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6
SHRUB OAK	COOP	6
MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	6

 

 

JFK has more 90 degree days to this point of any summer since 2010 though and still has 50% more 90 degree days than Central Park lol

This isn't what I would consider a hot July, it's only slightly warmer than normal.  There has been only one truly hot day this month.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the ridge axis was to our west. This is why JFK only has around half as many 90° days as NJ this year so far. The warm spots in NJ may very well top 40 days reaching 90° again this year. While the number to the east of NYC with the sea breeze will be much lower. The ridge axis has been located to the east of New England again this summer.

 

 

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Newark Area	ThreadEx	18
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT	WBAN	18
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	18
TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	16
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	16
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	16
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	16
HARRISON	COOP	16
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO	COOP	14

 

90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 11, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13
New York-LGA Area	ThreadEx	13
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	11
PORT JERVIS	COOP	10
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW	COOP	10
POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
STONYKILL NEW YORK	RAWS	10
Poughkeepsie Area	ThreadEx	10
ST. JAMES	COOP	10
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	9
New York-Kennedy Airport Area	ThreadEx	9
SARA NEW YORK	RAWS	9
VICTOR 2NW	COOP	8
LANSING MANOR	COOP	8
WEBSTER 2 NE	COOP	8
GANG MILLS NEW YORK	RAWS	8
SHERBURNE NEW YORK	RAWS	8
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7
HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY	COOP	7
DANSVILLE	COOP	7
SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP	WBAN	7
WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT	WBAN	7
Islip Area	ThreadEx	7
Syracuse Area	ThreadEx	7
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	6
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6
SHRUB OAK	COOP	6
MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	6

 

 

What causes the ridge axis to be so far to the east? Doesn't that mean the Bermuda High is weaker? You'd think that if the Bermuda High was extremely strong it would extend much farther to the west.... like how strong low pressure systems tend to move further to the west? With reference to tropical season usually when we have really strong Bermuda Highs TCs like the type I described tend to move due west and hit Florida or the Gulf.

 

[donsutherland1]

The weekend will conclude on a warm note tomorrow. Temperatures will top out mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. 

Another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). 

 

[anthonymm]

So I guess lows in the 60s for July for the park are basically a thing of the past. Any bets on if we see a single < 70 F low in the park this month? 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

No by world government I mean world unity rather than having each nation doing its own thing. Not dictatorships like Russia or China either.

It will happen one day, it will be the next step in human political evolution.

Globalists in the context of what you're referring to are corrupt crony capitalists, that's not my idea of a world government.

 

You've been watching too much Star Trek 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

You've been watching too much Star Trek 

I love that show.... one can only dream.

I remember the protagonist in one of Stephen Spielberg's movies saying that we'll have world unity only when we find intelligent alien life and then we'll all realize human beings are all part of a single global family.

[jm1220]

Back to Miami on Tuesday. My point and click is 90-92 for the high Tue-Fri and I’m sure mid 70s dewpoints. 

[anthonymm]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Back to Miami on Tuesday. My point and click is 90-92 for the high Tue-Fri and I’m sure mid 70s dewpoints. 

Our summers are basically miami tier now, except with the highs being about 4-5 degrees cooler on average. The lows are startlingly similar, mid 70s (yuck).

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 91
TEB: 89
EWR: 88
TTN: 87
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 85
NYC: 83
ACY: 83
ISP: 81
BLM: 81
JFK: 80

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's definitely a human nature thing not a US vs rest of the world thing.

The fossil fuel cartels are large multinational corporations and they hold sway over most of the world's governments -- this is why you see their lobbyists even at UN climate conventions.

If you want to see real decisive action against climate change (or against anything else that is a problem in society today), you need to ban corporate lobbyists completely just like we did with big tobacco lobbyists.  And corporate lobbying is a global problem that extends far beyond this country.

I realized that when I started reading stories coming out of the UK about judges imprisoning peaceful climate change activists, including college professors and climate scientists at the behest of fossil fuel companies.  The judges put these scientists and professors in prison even before they went on trial (if there even was a trial) as a way to silence them from protesting.  They were released in a few days to a few weeks, kept in prison long enough to try to teach them a lesson not to protest.

Are these imprisonments recent?  I must have my head in the sand.  If we don't all destroy ourselves first, maybe in about 300 years or more the world might start unifying.  Though I'm not sure if human nature can evolve.  Again, a single culture doesn't seem possible, unless it is some kind of dystopia...

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Our summers are basically miami tier now, except with the highs being about 4-5 degrees cooler on average. The lows are startlingly similar, mid 70s (yuck).

That's the worst part. High dews and high lows.

I'd take mid 90s every day if it meant dews stay in the 50s or below and lows bottomed out in the mid 60s. 

[nycwinter]

16 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That's the worst part. High dews and high lows.

I'd take mid 90s every day if it meant dews stay in the 50s or below and lows bottomed out in the mid 60s. 

you could always move to arizona to get what you want..

[doncat]

Onshore flow keeping 90's at bay but still....85/71 split here today.

[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you could always move to arizona to get what you want..

Arizona where? Up in Flagstaff?

Otherwise it's way too hot. Phoenix average high is like 106 in July, too hot. 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So I guess lows in the 60s for July for the park are basically a thing of the past. Any bets on if we see a single < 70 F low in the park this month? 

Happens in plenty places outside the park, who cares except for the homeless that sleep there?

[JerseyWx]

5 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Our summers are basically miami tier now, except with the highs being about 4-5 degrees cooler on average. The lows are startlingly similar, mid 70s (yuck).

Our summers have always been hazy, hot and humid.  That's just typical Jersey and New York climate.  Yes I know that it has gotten worse, with dewpoints averaging higher than they used to, but it's not like we were ever arid like the high desert out west.