July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think it will be like last Thursday was??

The sea breeze fronts will probably be the focus for convection along with the remnant moisture from Chantal. Some areas might not see much rain next few days. While others could get a quick 2-3”+. Kind of like Florida where you can drive a few miles between sunny and thunderstorms.

 

[Snowlover11]

Absolutely disgusting outside. Every bug to man kind is flying around.

[winterwarlock]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like Tuesday might be our next shot at widespread 90 degrees, Tony??

Yeah looking like 93 with dews of 80 and heat indices of 111

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sea breeze fronts will probably be the focus for convection along with the remnant moisture from Chantal. Some areas might not see much rain next few days. While others could get a quick 2-3”+. Kind of like Florida where you can drive a few miles between sunny and thunderstorms.

 

Yep, could be a scenario where it’s bone dry on the south shore but 5 miles inland a deluge. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, could be a scenario where it’s bone dry on the south shore but 5 miles inland a deluge. 

I think everyone will be cloudy and overcast though (like it is right now). So even if it's not raining it's going to look gloomy and depressing.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Absolutely disgusting outside. Every bug to man kind is flying around.

Time to start spraying!  Why don't the birds eat all of them?

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 74 mainly cloudy with spotty sun.  Clouds in the way of 90 today for most, Chantal's shadow comes through with scattered storms and high humidity.  Mainly mid - upper 80s today - anywhere with enough sun (inland) can make a run for 90.  Tue / Wed hot / humid with scattered storms - heat focused inland with seabreeze - mid 90s in the hot areas.  Thu - Sat look mainly cloudy / slow moving scattered / isolated heavy storms, rain ad W. Atl ridge blocks frontal from advancine.   Ridge building cleaner with higher heights and expanding heat towards mid month and beyond.

 

7/7 : Chantal's wake - clouds - humid scattered storms
7/8 - 7/9 : Hot / humid  - scattered storms
7/10 - 7/12 : Humid / wet
7.13 - 7/14 :  Warm/ humid 
7/15  - Beyond :   Hotter / humid overall - still looks wetter overall perhaps not as wet ad this period

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 (2010)
JFK: 100 (2010)

Lows:

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 56 (1914)
LGA: 59 (1972)
JFK: 56 (1965)

Historical: 

1892: Record high barometer of 30.52 inches was observed in Washington, DC.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1892: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.51 inches of mercury for the month of July. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1905: The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, Arizona to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. The current record for Arizona is 128 degrees set in Lake Havasu City on 6-29-1994.

1915 - A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship Dick Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel)

1974: Shields, ND --a man was struck and killed by lightning while working in a hayfield.  (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1981 - Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1984: A 90 foot excursion boat carrying employees of the SCI Corporation on an outing capsized during a severe thunderstorm on the Tennessee River near Huntsville, AL, killing 11 people. The disaster was caused by a microburst. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes in Colorado, and three in West Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Bula, TX. In the midst of a record thirty-nine day string of 100 degree days, the temperature at Tucson, AZ, dipped to 66 degrees, marking their third straight record low for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Youngstown, OH, hit 100 degrees, and for the second day in a row, Flint, MI, reached 101 degrees, equalling all-time records for those two cities. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather during the day, with more than 100 reports of large hail and damaging winds from Ohio to Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Thunderstorm winds reached 90 mph in Sullivan County, NH, and golf ball size hail was reported in Pennsylvania. Twenty-four cities, mostly in the southwestern U.S., reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Cedar City, UT, and 114 degrees at Moab, UT, were all-time records for those locations. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City. 

1991: July 7-8, 1991..."The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1991" States that were affected --- ....SD, IA, MN, WI, MI, IN, OH, ON, NY, PA Tornadoes struck across southern Lower Michigan. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage. Overall, $30 million dollars in damage resulted with wind gusts over 85 mph. Over 850,000 people were without electricity following the storms; some for up to a week.(Ref. For More Information)

1993: The day after lightning started several fires, strong non-thunderstorm winds blew across much of northern Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 70 mph and lasted for several hours. A 1,200 pound bale of hay was rolled a quarter mile by the winds that also blew down many trees. Highway 51, near Hennessey, was closed until the downed trees could be cleaned up.
When clusters of thunderstorms collapse and dissipate rapidly, they sometimes produce a downburst of very warm air, called a "heat burst ". A collapsing thunderstorm in the northeast part of the Texas Panhandle produced a heat burst that reached Arnett and Gage, OK just before midnight. Winds gusted to 67 mph at Arnett, as the temperature rose from 82° to 97° in 30 minutes. At Gage, the wind gusted to 70 mph, while the temperature rose from 85° to 102° in one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F).
DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 (2010)
JFK: 100 (2010)

Lows:

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 56 (1914)
LGA: 59 (1972)
JFK: 56 (1965)

Historical: 

1892: Record high barometer of 30.52 inches was observed in Washington, DC.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1892: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.51 inches of mercury for the month of July. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1905: The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, Arizona to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. The current record for Arizona is 128 degrees set in Lake Havasu City on 6-29-1994.

1915 - A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship Dick Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel)

1974: Shields, ND --a man was struck and killed by lightning while working in a hayfield.  (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1981 - Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1984: A 90 foot excursion boat carrying employees of the SCI Corporation on an outing capsized during a severe thunderstorm on the Tennessee River near Huntsville, AL, killing 11 people. The disaster was caused by a microburst. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes in Colorado, and three in West Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Bula, TX. In the midst of a record thirty-nine day string of 100 degree days, the temperature at Tucson, AZ, dipped to 66 degrees, marking their third straight record low for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Youngstown, OH, hit 100 degrees, and for the second day in a row, Flint, MI, reached 101 degrees, equalling all-time records for those two cities. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather during the day, with more than 100 reports of large hail and damaging winds from Ohio to Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Thunderstorm winds reached 90 mph in Sullivan County, NH, and golf ball size hail was reported in Pennsylvania. Twenty-four cities, mostly in the southwestern U.S., reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Cedar City, UT, and 114 degrees at Moab, UT, were all-time records for those locations. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City. 

1991: July 7-8, 1991..."The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1991" States that were affected --- ....SD, IA, MN, WI, MI, IN, OH, ON, NY, PA Tornadoes struck across southern Lower Michigan. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage. Overall, $30 million dollars in damage resulted with wind gusts over 85 mph. Over 850,000 people were without electricity following the storms; some for up to a week.(Ref. For More Information)

1993: The day after lightning started several fires, strong non-thunderstorm winds blew across much of northern Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 70 mph and lasted for several hours. A 1,200 pound bale of hay was rolled a quarter mile by the winds that also blew down many trees. Highway 51, near Hennessey, was closed until the downed trees could be cleaned up.
When clusters of thunderstorms collapse and dissipate rapidly, they sometimes produce a downburst of very warm air, called a "heat burst ". A collapsing thunderstorm in the northeast part of the Texas Panhandle produced a heat burst that reached Arnett and Gage, OK just before midnight. Winds gusted to 67 mph at Arnett, as the temperature rose from 82° to 97° in 30 minutes. At Gage, the wind gusted to 70 mph, while the temperature rose from 85° to 102° in one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F).
DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

2010: BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F).
DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

 

all the historically hot summers were setting records right now....

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 (2010)
JFK: 100 (2010)

 

see no foliage interference when it's historically hot.....

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1993)
NYC: 100 (2010)
LGA: 101 (2010)
JFK: 100 (2010)

Lows:

EWR: 57 (1940)
NYC: 56 (1914)
LGA: 59 (1972)
JFK: 56 (1965)

Historical: 

1892: Record high barometer of 30.52 inches was observed in Washington, DC.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1892: Boston, Massachusetts recorded its highest pressure 30.51 inches of mercury for the month of July. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1905: The mercury soared to 127 degrees at Parker, Arizona to tie the state record established at Fort Mohave on the 15th of June in 1896. The current record for Arizona is 128 degrees set in Lake Havasu City on 6-29-1994.

1915 - A severe wind and thunderstorm caused heavy damage and 38 deaths in and near Cincinnati, OH. Many older buildings were demolished. The steamship Dick Fulton was overturned. (The Weather Channel)

1974: Shields, ND --a man was struck and killed by lightning while working in a hayfield.  (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1981 - Montana was in the midst of a snowstorm that dumped ten inches at Glacier National Park, and produced winds to 90 mph. Meanwhile, Denver, CO, set a record high with a reading of 101 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1984: A 90 foot excursion boat carrying employees of the SCI Corporation on an outing capsized during a severe thunderstorm on the Tennessee River near Huntsville, AL, killing 11 people. The disaster was caused by a microburst. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes in Colorado, and three in West Texas. Thunderstorms also produced softball size hail at Bula, TX. In the midst of a record thirty-nine day string of 100 degree days, the temperature at Tucson, AZ, dipped to 66 degrees, marking their third straight record low for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Youngstown, OH, hit 100 degrees, and for the second day in a row, Flint, MI, reached 101 degrees, equalling all-time records for those two cities. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather during the day, with more than 100 reports of large hail and damaging winds from Ohio to Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Thunderstorm winds reached 90 mph in Sullivan County, NH, and golf ball size hail was reported in Pennsylvania. Twenty-four cities, mostly in the southwestern U.S., reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 105 degrees at Cedar City, UT, and 114 degrees at Moab, UT, were all-time records for those locations. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: During the early daylight hours of Sunday, July 7, 1991, a bow echo developed over southeast South Dakota and began racing east, producing very damaging winds. This bow echo was the start of a long-lived derecho that lasted 17 hours and affected areas from the Great Plains into western New York and Pennsylvania. Wind gusts in some places reached 80 to 100 mph. The strongest gust, 103 mph, was measured at Sioux Center, Iowa around mid-morning, and the roof of a school was blown off in nearby Orange City. 

1991: July 7-8, 1991..."The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1991" States that were affected --- ....SD, IA, MN, WI, MI, IN, OH, ON, NY, PA Tornadoes struck across southern Lower Michigan. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage. Overall, $30 million dollars in damage resulted with wind gusts over 85 mph. Over 850,000 people were without electricity following the storms; some for up to a week.(Ref. For More Information)

1993: The day after lightning started several fires, strong non-thunderstorm winds blew across much of northern Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 70 mph and lasted for several hours. A 1,200 pound bale of hay was rolled a quarter mile by the winds that also blew down many trees. Highway 51, near Hennessey, was closed until the downed trees could be cleaned up.
When clusters of thunderstorms collapse and dissipate rapidly, they sometimes produce a downburst of very warm air, called a "heat burst ". A collapsing thunderstorm in the northeast part of the Texas Panhandle produced a heat burst that reached Arnett and Gage, OK just before midnight. Winds gusted to 67 mph at Arnett, as the temperature rose from 82° to 97° in 30 minutes. At Gage, the wind gusted to 70 mph, while the temperature rose from 85° to 102° in one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2010: BWI recorded record high temperatures on 4 days: 6th (105 °F), 7th (101 °F), 24th (101 °F) and 25th (100 °F).
DCA soared to a record 102 °F on the 7th and 101 °F on the 24th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1

1993: The day after lightning started several fires, strong non-thunderstorm winds blew across much of northern Oklahoma. Winds gusted to 70 mph and lasted for several hours. A 1,200 pound bale of hay was rolled a quarter mile by the winds that also blew down many trees. Highway 51, near Hennessey, was closed until the downed trees could be cleaned up.
When clusters of thunderstorms collapse and dissipate rapidly, they sometimes produce a downburst of very warm air, called a "heat burst ". A collapsing thunderstorm in the northeast part of the Texas Panhandle produced a heat burst that reached Arnett and Gage, OK just before midnight. Winds gusted to 67 mph at Arnett, as the temperature rose from 82° to 97° in 30 minutes. At Gage, the wind gusted to 70 mph, while the temperature rose from 85° to 102° in one hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

These are the amazing heat bursts we have been talking about.....

[SACRUS]

 

 

Not much breaks in the clouds today - more sun tue/wed and heat advisories may be needed with the dew point temps in the mid 70s both days.

 

[winterwarlock]

Drizzling out..wtf

[lee59]

Showers coming off the ocean crossing Long Island, especially east.

[Stormlover74]

79/74 with some sun. Steambath

[Stormlover74]

Looks like there will be some storms training over the same area sw of nyc and down into pa (if hrrr is right)

 

[BxEngine]

38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like there will be some storms training over the same area sw of nyc and down into pa (if hrrr is right)

 

The last time the hrrr was right was 1987

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The last time the hrrr was right was 1987

And the nam? Has very little today

[Stormlover74]

Getting a shower/downpour now

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the nam? Has very little today

The 3K has some over NJ like the HRRR but the rest of the area doesn't have much today or even tomorrow verbatim

[Brian5671]

Partial clearing moving north through the area

[forkyfork]

how does a radar site crucial for a big metro area break down every month

[forkyfork]

46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the nam? Has very little today

the mesos that do show storms focus around the parkway

[Stormlover74]

I've spent so much time debunking the myth we had an ef-1 tornado. Some fake site picked up that a tornado hit and now everyone on fb is quoting it as legit including the mayor and local officials. So annoying

[SACRUS]

 

87 / 75 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I've spent so much time debunking the myth we had an ef-1 tornado. Some fake site picked up that a tornado hit and now everyone on fb is quoting it as legit including the mayor and local officials. So annoying

The one that hit about 5 miles northeast of here has tremendous tree damage-that seems to be the trigger for people to assume it was a tornado

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

87 / 75 

The sun has come out here and the skies have cleared out and that has made the day intolerable.

I love heat but hate humidity and this is one of those days you actually want to be cloudy.

I imagine tomorrow will be much worse, I see even the south shore of Long Island will probably hit the low 90s tomorrow from my local forecast.

 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I've spent so much time debunking the myth we had an ef-1 tornado. Some fake site picked up that a tornado hit and now everyone on fb is quoting it as legit including the mayor and local officials. So annoying

I saw those posts too.  So annoying.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

The 3K has some over NJ like the HRRR but the rest of the area doesn't have much today or even tomorrow verbatim

After today our next chance of rain will be Thursday and Friday.

Tomorrow will feel far worse than when it hit 100+ on back to back days in June.

 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

After today our next chance of rain will be Thursday and Friday.

Tomorrow will feel far worse than when it hit 100+ on back to back days in June.

 

I think there will be scattered storms potential both tue and wed (especially later wed)

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

After today our next chance of rain will be Thursday and Friday.

Tomorrow will feel far worse than when it hit 100+ on back to back days in June.

 

most the TS moisture is going to miss to the east-some areas may not see much at all this week....