Central PA Summer 2025

[pawatch]

Hope everyone is safe and nobody gets flooded, These kind of storms are deceiving on the yearly totals. Mostly all run off

[mahantango#1]

5.85 total rain for the month of June.

[mitchnick]

Loud, windy storms around 10:30-11 last night left exactly an inch.

Tired of lawn mowing...as every year.

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 70 and 4.07” of rain here. Honestly, I was expecting more but the late night stuff didn’t quite perform the way the earlier stuff did. Still, has to be one of my highest one-day totals on record, will check the spreadsheet later. Not loving the look for later today. We could really use a break over this way. 

[Jns2183]

So repeat it seemx

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[AccuChris]

Finished with 5.27” in Lebanon yesterday, about 10” for the month of June and now 29.54” on the year. Over 21” of rain from May 1-June 30 here…incredible!


.

[ChescoWx]

We generally saw between 1" to as much as nearly 3" of rain across Chester County last evening and overnight. Some spots like West Bradford received 2.92" of rain with Glenmoore at 2.06" and East Nantmeal with 1.73" of rain. We could see quite a bit more rain later today as a cold front approaches from the west tonight. The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch from 2pm through 2am Wednesday. The NWS has a forecast of another 1" to 2" of rain but some of the shorter-range models show even more across some spots. Today will be our warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 80's. We fall back pretty close to normal or a bit below tomorrow with near normal temperatures through Saturday before we warm back to a few degrees above normal by next Sunday. No 90-degree temperatures are expected at least in the higher spots of the county throughout the week.

[Jns2183]

Finished with 5.27” in Lebanon yesterday, about 10” for the month of June and now 29.54” on the year. Over 21” of rain from May 1-June 30 here…incredible!


.

Amazingly you have about 10.5" more than me

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[canderson]

.75” last night. That storm between 10-1130 pm dropped .6”. 

[Superstorm]

2.40" storm total.

8.35" rain total for the month of June.

We are waterlogged.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

After scanning through my records, I've only had seven other occasions when I registered a single-day total greater than yesterday's 4.07", three of which occurred in the epic month of August 2018.  My official total for June is 9.25", good for my wettest June ever and within a half inch of May's 9.7".  I now sit at 27.52" for the year.

After perusing some sources this morning, I have a bad feeling for what's to come later today.  Hope to be wrong.

[Itstrainingtime]

2.83" of total rainfall for me, with 0.03" falling since midnight. 

[Itstrainingtime]

The activity in western PA/WV/MD looks to have a good forward motion to it. 

#lookingforbrightspots

[Porsche]

2.46" yesterday

5.93" June

[Superstorm]

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

After scanning through my records, I've only had seven other occasions when I registered a single-day total greater than yesterday's 4.07", three of which occurred in the epic month of August 2018.  My official total for June is 9.25", good for my wettest June ever and within a half inch of May's 9.7".  I now sit at 27.52" for the year.

After perusing some sources this morning, I have a bad feeling for what's to come later today.  Hope to be wrong.

Yeah, this aint going to be pretty if we go over 1" totals.

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, pawatch said:

Hope everyone is safe and nobody gets flooded, These kind of storms are deceiving on the yearly totals. Mostly all run off

while thats often the case, we are waterlogged down here and runoff is largely cause soil cant hold anymore.  NWS suggested that in their recent disco for today's possible "fun".  I passed 3 stranded cars on way to work, and 2 were in pretty deep (etown rd and near my home in akron).

 

Good luck to all who got hammered yesterday and may get it again today.  that graph above is ominous for us southers.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

The activity in western PA/WV/MD looks to have a good forward motion to it. 

#lookingforbrightspots

Yes, I'm hoping that's our saving grace today, that the cold front rams things right on through.  The lack of steering winds yesterday was a big part of the problem.  Still, we can't afford much out our way without big issues arising quickly.  I'm in Harrisburg today so maybe I brought the storms with me up this way.

[Jns2183]

Yes, I'm hoping that's our saving grace today, that the cold front rams things right on through.  The lack of steering winds yesterday was a big part of the problem.  Still, we can't afford much out our way without big issues arising quickly.  I'm in Harrisburg today so maybe I brought the storms with me up this way.

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty

2:00 PM (Second Image)

Thermodynamics:

Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere.

CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down.


CIN: Nearly eliminated.

Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing.

Interpretation:
This is the convective initiation (CI) window.
Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present.
Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall.



---

5:00 PM (Third Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile.

Fully saturated up to ~500 mb.


Wind:

Still weak steering, slight veering.

Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding.


Interpretation:
This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms.
Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production.
Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain.



---

8:00 PM (Bottom Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE remains robust.

Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency.


Winds:

Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall.

Shear drops significantly.


Interpretation:
Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains.
Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration.


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[Itstrainingtime]

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

After scanning through my records, I've only had seven other occasions when I registered a single-day total greater than yesterday's 4.07", three of which occurred in the epic month of August 2018.  My official total for June is 9.25", good for my wettest June ever and within a half inch of May's 9.7".  I now sit at 27.52" for the year.

After perusing some sources this morning, I have a bad feeling for what's to come later today.  Hope to be wrong.

I'm sitting at 30.88" YTD - you have; however, doubled my rainfall total since Saturday that really narrowed the gap. I really "cleaned up" during May. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

while thats often the case, we are waterlogged down here and runoff is largely cause soil cant hold anymore.  NWS suggested that in their recent disco for today's possible "fun".  I passed 3 stranded cars on way to work, and 2 were in pretty deep (etown rd and near my home in akron).

 

Good luck to all who got hammered yesterday and may get it again today.  that graph above is ominous for us southers.

 

Good to hear from you during your hibernation. A lot of us are certainly at the point of crying "uncle". 

Of course, we'll probably flip a switch and enter a prolonged dry spell over the 2nd half of summer. It would be nice if we could ration all of this out, ya know? 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty

2:00 PM (Second Image)

Thermodynamics:

Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere.

CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down.


CIN: Nearly eliminated.

Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing.

Interpretation:
This is the convective initiation (CI) window.
Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present.
Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall.



---

5:00 PM (Third Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile.

Fully saturated up to ~500 mb.


Wind:

Still weak steering, slight veering.

Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding.


Interpretation:
This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms.
Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production.
Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain.



---

8:00 PM (Bottom Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE remains robust.

Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency.


Winds:

Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall.

Shear drops significantly.


Interpretation:
Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains.
Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration.


Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

Nice work pal.  Enjoyed the read.  Thanks for the insight.

[Itstrainingtime]

Conestoga River is now over flood stage at Lancaster. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sitting at 30.88" YTD - you have; however, doubled my rainfall total since Saturday that really narrowed the gap. I really "cleaned up" during May. 

Good to hear from you during your hibernation. A lot of us are certainly at the point of crying "uncle". 

Of course, we'll probably flip a switch and enter a prolonged dry spell over the 2nd half of summer. It would be nice if we could ration all of this out, ya know? 

Hangin in and hangin on....

The weather and cooko for cocco puff light and sound show last night, coupled w/ the monsoonal rains, scared my arse right outta my cave....so here i am.  

hell...i'll say it.....UNCLE!  What a diff a year makes.  Not sure which evil is better, but like my wife always says, too much is better than not enough, so I'll go w/ that, and see how tonight goes.  

Hope you are doing well/better.  

and hope the rest of you blokes are well also.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hangin in and hangin on....

The weather and cooko for cocco puff light and sound show last night, coupled w/ the monsoonal rains, scared my arse right outta my cave....so here i am.  

hell...i'll say it.....UNCLE!  What a diff a year makes.  Not sure which evil is better, but like my wife always says, too much is better than not enough, so I'll go w/ that, and see how tonight goes.  

Hope you are doing well/better.  

and hope the rest of you blokes are well also.

 

 

I have an appointment tomorrow with a lung specialist. A recent test showed something of concern (non-cancerous, they believe) so I'll have a better idea of what's happening soon. Current thought is that the chest infection that started all of this back in April might have caused permanent damage. Right now there's just too much unknown for me to really say more. I'll update when I'm able to.

Overall, I feel better than I have in years, ironically. 

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

2.40" storm total.

8.35" rain total for the month of June.

We are waterlogged.

A lot of us need to dry out. At least 10 days without any rain.

[Superstorm]

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sitting at 30.88" YTD - you have; however, doubled my rainfall total since Saturday that really narrowed the gap. I really "cleaned up" during May. 

Good to hear from you during your hibernation. A lot of us are certainly at the point of crying "uncle". 

Of course, we'll probably flip a switch and enter a prolonged dry spell over the 2nd half of summer. It would be nice if we could ration all of this out, ya know? 

Im feeling slighted....Im only at 25.16".

Rationing could mean LESS precip in the prime "winter" months.

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I have an appointment tomorrow with a lung specialist. A recent test showed something of concern (non-cancerous, they believe) so I'll have a better idea of what's happening soon. Current thought is that the chest infection that started all of this back in April might have caused permanent damage. Right now there's just too much unknown for me to really say more. I'll update when I'm able to.

Overall, I feel better than I have in years, ironically. 

Keeping you in my thoughts n prayers for a good outcome.  Health scares even without a diagnosis, can lead to healthier habits, or better self awareness, so that in itself is a good thing.

 

[Voyager]

46 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The NAM forecast soundings are not pretty

2:00 PM (Second Image)

Thermodynamics:

Moisture has deepened significantly through the low-mid troposphere.

CAPE increasing. Inversion breaking down.


CIN: Nearly eliminated.

Wind: Weak veering. Still light but flow is organizing.

Interpretation:
This is the convective initiation (CI) window.
Expect first storms around or after this point, especially if boundaries are present.
Tall, narrow CAPE profile supports efficient rainfall.



---

5:00 PM (Third Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE is strong, with tall and narrow shape: classic flash flood profile.

Fully saturated up to ~500 mb.


Wind:

Still weak steering, slight veering.

Winds supportive of parallel cell orientation, a key factor in training/banding.


Interpretation:
This is the high risk time for backbuilding storms.
Low LCLs + tall moist layer = efficient rain production.
Very favorable for anchored convection with heavy rain.



---

8:00 PM (Bottom Image)

Thermodynamics:

CAPE remains robust.

Deep warm-cloud layer (melting level) = high rainfall efficiency.


Winds:

Very weak aloft → poor storm motion → cells likely to stall.

Shear drops significantly.


Interpretation:
Flash flood risk peaks if convection sustains.
Weak outflow winds suggest training, merging cores, or cell regeneration.


Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk
 

Great discussion, but is it region wide, or more south and east positioned?

[canderson]

I at around  21” rain for the year. Give or take .5-.75”. 

[canderson]

27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I have an appointment tomorrow with a lung specialist. A recent test showed something of concern (non-cancerous, they believe) so I'll have a better idea of what's happening soon. Current thought is that the chest infection that started all of this back in April might have caused permanent damage. Right now there's just too much unknown for me to really say more. I'll update when I'm able to.

Overall, I feel better than I have in years, ironically. 

Sending good vibes!