June 2025 Obs/Disco

[Typhoon Tip]

Canadian implies potential high heat on this 12z run - definitely moving in a hotter direction, as well. 

previous run vs this 12z centered on 180 hrs

 

[Typhoon Tip]

here it is out at hour 216 ....  that's maximizing.  The ridge construct is so rubust it's hard to image a single cloud in the sky open pure sear must be circumstantial underneath this synoptic structure. G-pot heights approaching 600 dm, 12 hours after this interval over NYC-BOS.    

 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS at the same time... LOL

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is so broken.

[Typhoon Tip]

Very little support from the GEFs ensemble system wrt the operational run doing that with that big closed summer ending menace.   

The 00z had it, the 06z diametrically reversed and had big number heat implied ... 12z vacillated all the way back to the 00z run... so big yo-yooing that doesn't conform to the ensembles/telecon is highly suspect as the GFS being the Good For Shit model

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is so broken.

i mean look at the eps 00z mean .. . 

that's a big time signal for 200 hours boys - 

[bristolri_wx]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

With all due respect ... where are you seeing constraining factors on T or DP ?  

It isn't through conventional means, because from operational trends, to teleconnector/mass field correlations and back , the whole methodology has +2 ST DP and +1.5 SD T at this time, which in sensible terms is 91/73 type stuff ...roughly from D7 to 14 - but these time ranges are obviously negotiable.  

Course, we are talking still a week+ away.  If you are constraining things based on seasonal trend to bone warm pattern and verIfy a low-balled result?  okay.  LOL 

Was looking at the ensembles. Perhaps the output for the longer term is not the best way gauge the actual weather in terms of temps and dews. It also seems like the areas where we want the heat and humidity to be above normal when the flow we need to kick in doesn’t seem so. The southeast doesn’t seem to be having particularly above normal HHH weather which is usually present when we start to get it as well.

I will fully admit I’m paying more attention this summer than usual, so my understanding of correlation of models to patterns may be lacking.

I’m also not predicting a cold snap, after Thursday and Friday I just wasn’t seeing a lot more than 85/65 until late in the period.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Was looking at the ensembles. Perhaps the output for the longer term is not the best way gauge the actual weather in terms of temps and dews. It also seems like the areas where we want the heat and humidity to be above normal when the flow we need to kick in doesn’t seem so. The southeast doesn’t seem to be having particularly above normal HHH weather which is usually present when we start to get it as well.

I will fully admit I’m paying more attention this summer than usual, so my understanding of correlation of models to patterns may be lacking.

I’m also not predicting a cold snap, after Thursday and Friday I just wasn’t seeing a lot more than 85/65 until late in the period.

Keep in mind .. the ensemble mean will 90 some percent of the time or more be less than an operational version's amplitude - particularly out in time when individual members tray off into processing fantasies. 

I mean that's just an unavoidable circumstance of arithmetic, where the entire envelope thus contains both bignormous fantasies, but also, very nominal sad dreams hahaha.   

That is why an EPS mean like this at 200+ hours

   ... signifies there are not a lot of low members.    Anyway, this chart straight up is dead nuts textbook big heat signaling.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The week after could be very warm. The cold BS like we have is done until November.

We’ve heard this before, yet here we are in mid June at 2pm, 60 degrees 

[ineedsnow]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind .. the ensemble mean will 90 some percent of the time or more be less than an operational version's amplitude - particularly out in time when individual members tray off into processing fantasies. 

I mean that's just an unavoidable circumstance of arithmetic, where the entire envelope thus contains both bignormous fantasies, but also, very nominal sad dreams hahaha.   

That is why an EPS mean like this at 200+ hours

   ... signifies there are not a lot of low members.    Anyway, this chart straight up is dead nuts textbook big heat signaling.  

12z Euro torches for a few days even has 100's in parts of SNE

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

Yikes. Hundies with none of that mixed out GFS nonsense from past years either. 100/70 for days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh yeeaaaahhhh boooyyyyyy

[Damage In Tolland]

Even Ineedsnow is excited and become Ineedheat

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it asking too much to get a nice heat dome derecho? Wish I was old enough for this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave_of_1995_derecho_series

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve heard this before, yet here we are in mid June at 2pm, 60 degrees 

It’s done

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeeaaaahhhh boooyyyyyy

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Movement 

[metagraphica]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yikes. Hundies with none of that mixed out GFS nonsense from past years either. 100/70 for days. 

 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeeaaaahhhh boooyyyyyy

Give him the heater, Ricky!

[ma blizzard]

now that is some high end heat for our region on the Euro .. kind of reminds me of 2021 IIRC? 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

 

 

Give him the heater, Ricky!

Verification time

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it asking too much to get a nice heat dome derecho? Wish I was old enough for this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave_of_1995_derecho_series

I remember that ... We had a shot at getting clipped by the ongoing historic heat over the Lakes region that day, but that derecho came thru at dawn and processed the heat south.    We were forecast to 101 that day, but "only" made 92s in the wake of that beast - I think was Saturday.  

It was actually weakening quite a bit by the time it was passing through eastern Mass around 7 am or so... We still managed some 55 mph gusts, but nothing like what happened up the Mohawk Trail/Eastern NY/VT...   I do recall seeing a rope funnel along dangling down from the outflow wedge tho - that was neat.  

The evening before, I remember a bank thermometer - back when they used to have those... - with an 89 in down town Maynard Ma, just before it click back to the time, 11:10 pm.  I was blown away by that kind of heat that late at night.   Seems like I've seen that in urban centers since though. 

For what it is worth, the 00z Euro some sort of an MCS like you're describing around 180 hrs from now.  

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember that ... We had a shot at getting clipped by the ongoing historic heat over the Lakes region that day, but that derecho came thru at dawn and processed the heat south.    We were forecast to 101 that day, but "only" made 92s in the wake of that beast - I think was Saturday.  

It was actually weakening quite a bit by the time it was passing through eastern Mass around 7 am or so... We still managed some 55 mph gusts, but nothing like what happened up the Mohawk Trail/Eastern NY/VT...   I do recall seeing a rope funnel along dangling down from the outflow wedge tho - that was neat.  

The evening before, I remember a bank thermometer - back when they used to have those... - with an 89 in down town Maynard Ma, just before it click back to the time, 11:10 pm.  I was blown away by that kind of heat that late at night.   Seems like I've seen that in urban centers since though. 

For what it is worth, the 00z Euro some sort of an MCS like you're describing around 180 hrs from now.  

I remember this too. I was 11 years old at sleep away camp in Great Barrington, MA. Roaring winds came through in the morning, was a crazy storm.

I believe it was visiting day and my parents had stayed in Stockbridge and apparently the Stockbridge bowl had white caps 

 

[kdxken]

On 6/13/2025 at 8:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Doesn’t look like much rain at all this weekend. Maybe the Jack gets .20. Certainly better than it looked a few days ago even if cloudy and cool 

Looks like  .5 - .6 will just about do it.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

now that is some high end heat for our region on the Euro .. kind of reminds me of 2021 IIRC? 

That one turned out to be more about DP the way I recall... I mean 94 was impressive enough, but we had DPs in the garden sites of Wunder like 82... is was sick. KFIT was 94/76 and that site is a notorious DP hole.   I thought legit at the time, because the day it maxed ( 96/78 here) both my living room window AC unit, and my fucking refrigerator ( yes, the kitchen main appliance one...) died.  As in throw away...  right then and there.   I remember scrambling to set up ice chests to store stuff, while of course ... no place had any window units in stock because everyone and their buddy Jack made a run on them.   I did find a mom n pop that had a window unit, and also similarly a frig - but the frig is actually too big for this kitchen of mine ( oh wel - ), and the window unit made so much sound it was like a aeronautical test at an emission controls complex...   

I have mini splits now.  Bring it on.    But yeah...that one turned out to more HI than actual temperature.    

 

[dendrite]

Cam from Plymouth right now looking north. Sky is def brightening here. 

[bristolri_wx]

Terrible here at Colt State Park. Lots of parties ruined. Breezy, light drizzle/rain, 59 degrees.

Although there may differing opinions on how much summertime ball sweat some of us enjoy, anything is better than this shit on a Saturday in June.

[dendrite]

Sun’s out!

Up to 59°

[ineedsnow]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even Ineedsnow is excited and become Ineedheat

hoping we can manage some big storms at the end of it

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks like  .5 - .6 will just about do it.

 

Not sure where that is but SNE General was under .15. A terrible job by anyone calling for rain and using euro