June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Up into the 90s today, 91 already.....

 

now 93 just before the start of the Yankees game

[LoboLeader1]

Gorgeous 76 degree day here in the Berks, it's currently 90F back home in HPN.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Partly to mostly cloudy in west babylon. Sea breeze boundary maybe. Ugh. Still patches of blue though. 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Partly to mostly cloudy in west babylon. Sea breeze boundary maybe. Ugh. Still patches of blue though. 

Yep, we're going mostly cloudy though, but before that happened the temperature here peaked at 94 at 2 PM.

[bluewave]

On 6/28/2025 at 10:02 AM, LibertyBell said:

I grew up near Prospect Park, and spent my weekends playing frisbee in there growing up :-)

 

Yeah, great part of NYC. The whole area from around Prospect Park to the Brooklyn Waterfront has seen a real renaissance over the last 20 years. Gorgeous views especially when we get some snow.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

92 / 68

[SACRUS]

 

 

See if something minimal pops over FL

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, great part of NYC. The whole area from around Prospect Park to the Brooklyn Waterfront has seen a real renaissance over the last 20 years. Gorgeous views especially when we get some snow.

 

 

It's where I experienced the April 1982 Blizzard!!

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

92 / 68

It's completely overcast Tony, where did all these clouds come from?

 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's where I experienced the April 1982 Blizzard!!

That still remains one of my all-time favorite snowstorms. Probably the most electrified blizzard. The record cold and snow in April 1982 would have been impressive in the 1880s or 1780s. 

[Rjay]

Another NW wind day with a late afternoon 90 here.  91 currently  

[steve392]

89 and a strong sun today.  Even with breeze it was blazing. 

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared into the lower 90s in many parts of the area today. Today was also the second time this year and 18th time overall that Central Park did not reach 90° or above when Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark reached 90° or above. 17/18 (94%) of those dates have occurred since 2000 and 12/18 (67%) have occurred since 2010. Prior to 2000, 0.6% of days with 90° or above highs at Islip, JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark did not reach 90° in Central Park. Since 2000, 10.1% of such days saw a high below 90° at Central Park while 10.6% had no high of 90° at Central Park since 2010.

Very warm weather will prevail through mid week. New York City will see highs in the upper 80s. Newark will likely be near or just above 90° on each day during this period. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. Both the 0zz GFS and ECMWF show potential for more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was +2.81 on Friday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.405 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2° (1.2° above normal). 

 

[psv88]

90/68/93 here. No sea breeze. Hot as fuck even on the water on the north shore 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Another NW wind day with a late afternoon 90 here.  91 currently  

Yes the perfect day with a one hour interruption with clouds

Got to 94 here at 2 pm just before the clouds

[Intensewind002]

90/66 Heat index of 93 in Lindenhurst right now

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That still remains one of my all-time favorite snowstorms. Probably the most electrified blizzard. The record cold and snow in April 1982 would have been impressive in the 1880s or 1780s. 

The only comparable snowstorms I can think of occurred in the 1870s.  I wonder what caused that snowstorm and cold so many decades after the planet had already started to warm?

 

[Roger Smith]

Today's min of 77F at NYC was 1F off the 2021 record which replaced 1870 (77F) so it was tied second warmest for the date.

[Sundog]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The only comparable snowstorms I can think of occurred in the 1870s.  I wonder what caused that snowstorm and cold so many decades after the planet had already started to warm?

 

The event is extremely unlikely but not impossible. 

Plus early 80s was peak aerosol pollution, we had capped climate change through air pollution. Then there is also natural variability. 

 

 

[jm1220]

High of 92. Heat’s definitely back. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

High of 92. Heat’s definitely back. 

Same here. Roasting

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

See if something minimal pops over FL

Looks like Barry will be on shore around 1am Monday. 

[donsutherland1]

Today, Newark topped out at 95°. Central Park hit 89°. Prior to 2000, Central Park failed to reach 90° or above on just 0.4% of the days that Newark hit 95° or above. Since 2000, that figure has increased nearly 16-fold to 5.5%.

For June, I constructed regression equations for the pre-2000 and 2000-present periods. The independent variables were ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR. The dependent variable was NYC.

Based on today's 91, 92, 91, and 95 highs at ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR, the pre-2000 equation suggested a high of 93.28 at Central Park (95% CIE: 90.5-96.0). The 2000-present equation suggested a high of 90.52 at Central Park (95% (CIE: 88.9-92.1). The difference in the estimates suggests that Central Park's highs are nearly 2.8° cooler relative to surrounding locations in the 2000-2024 period. The coefficients of determination were 0.86 and 0.95 respectively. Given the high coefficients of determination for both cases, one can have strong confidence that today's highs are notably cooler relative to those at surrounding sites than they would have been prior to 2000, especially as the predicted 2000-2024 high falls outside the 95% confidence interval for the pre-2000 period.

[LoboLeader1]

Topped off at 91 today.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

The event is extremely unlikely but not impossible. 

Plus early 80s was peak aerosol pollution, we had capped climate change through air pollution. Then there is also natural variability. 

 

 

That's why the idea of putting more aerosols into the stratosphere has some merit.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 95
ACY: 95
PHL: 93
New Brnswck: 92
TEB: 92
JFK: 92
PHL: 93
ISP: 91
TTN: 91
LGA: 91
BLM: 90 * no intra hours highs

NYC: 89

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today, Newark topped out at 95°. Central Park hit 88°. Prior to 2000, Central Park failed to reach 90° or above on just 0.4% of the days that Newark hit 95° or above. Since 2000, that figure has increased nearly 16-fold to 5.5%.

For June, I constructed regression equations for the pre-2000 and 2000-present periods. The independent variables were ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR. The dependent variable was NYC.

Based on today's 90, 92, 90, and 95 highs at ISP, JFK, LGA, and EWR, the pre-2000 equation suggested a high of 92.96 at Central Park (95% CIE: 90.1-95.8). The 2000-present equation suggested a high of 92.06 at Central Park (95% (CIE: 88.5-91.6). The difference in the estimates suggests that Central Park's highs are 2.9° cooler relative to surrounding locations in the 2000-2024 period. The coefficients of determination were 0.86 and 0.95 respectively. Given the high coefficients of determination for both cases, one can have strong confidence that today's highs are notably cooler relative to those at surrounding sites than they would have been prior to 2000.

There's not even any rain to keep the park wet, it has to be all about shade.  JFK hit 92, I hit 94, it was a legit hot day, no reason for Central Park to be 88.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 95
ACY: 95
New Brnswck: 92
TEB: 92
JFK: 92
PHL: 93
ISP: 91
TTN: 91
LGA: 91
BLM: 90

NYC: 89

89, so did sneak in an extra degree in between hours Tony?

KMJX was also 95 today.

 

[Sundog]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

That's why the idea of putting more aerosols into the stratosphere has some merit.

I'm in favor of anything that will bring the average global temperature down. 

People say you can't run a global experiment like that without knowing the outcome. 

Oh but running a fossil fuel driven global experiment is no problem? We're already doing something bad, might as well mitigate the effects!

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 95
ACY: 95
New Brnswck: 92
TEB: 92
JFK: 92
PHL: 93
ISP: 91
TTN: 91
LGA: 91
BLM: 90 * no intra hours highs

NYC: 89

That 89 is really something it's like the station is trolling us