June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[winterwx21]

Good to finally see some sunshine. Temp popped to 86 here. Feels steamy out there with the dewpoint at 72. 

[Picard]

And just like that.  The sun comes out and dewpoints into the 70s.   Feels like summer.

[forkyfork]

nice 

[jm1220]

Yep. Sun’s out here and first summer true sauna afternoon. 

[TWCCraig]

Only 75/70 (Temp/Dew point) here on the south shore with full sun. Maxed at 79 around 2pm with 0.26" of rain this morning

[Poker2015]

Hit 90 before when the sun was out. 74 dew point, yuck

[FPizz]

24 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Hit 90 before when the sun was out. 74 dew point, yuck

You hit 90?  The warmest ambient station that I see in our area is 87 (I'm discounting the 93 as that can't be correct).  

[Cyg]

Just took a 10 mile bike ride. Sure feels like summer out now.

[Sundog]

85/73. 

These dewpoints are terrible. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

nice 

I hope you turned on your a/c too

I'm glad I'm not the only one who uses La Crosse, I have three of their weather stations.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

85/73. 

These dewpoints are terrible. 

a/c time!!

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Only 75/70 (Temp/Dew point) here on the south shore with full sun. Maxed at 79 around 2pm with 0.26" of rain this morning

we were in the mid 80s out here in the western part of the south shore.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. Sun’s out here and first summer true sauna afternoon. 

you forgot about Thursday when we were all in the 90s lol

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope you turned on your a/c too

I'm glad I'm not the only one who uses La Crosse, I have three of their weather stations.

I used to have a La Crosse many years ago, like 20 years ago. Now I have nothing and depend on someone's Ambient Weather station a couple blocks away lol

[Intensewind002]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we were in the mid 80s out here in the western part of the south shore.

It was/is 78 here in lindenhurst, wild what difference a few miles can make

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, MANDA said:

You can talk about temperatures but to be forecasting or expecting records and extremes 10 days out is not wise.

Extreme temperature forecast 7-10 days out seldom occurs.  Usually, the extremes temper out...

[Dark Star]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a/c time!!

Dunno, humidity seemed to have dropped as the afternoon went on?

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I used to have a La Crosse many years ago, like 20 years ago. Now I have nothing and depend on someone's Ambient Weather station a couple blocks away lol

I hope they sited it properly lol, have you taken a trip there to see where they put it?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Dunno, humidity seemed to have dropped as the afternoon went on?

Now maybe, it just dropped into the upper 70s here

[donsutherland1]

Warmer air began to overspread the region today. This week's warmth will peak tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the region. A few areas could reach or exceed 90°. The arrival of this warmth will mark the start of a sustained period of above normal temperatures.

No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that will likely change shortly afterward. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -4.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.248 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[steve392]

Decent day.  Sun beating down on yard, you could just feel tge moisture evaporating.  Sitting in backyard now watching the huge storms over Sussex county move to my northeast from little ferry.  

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warmer air began to overspread the region today. This week's warmth will peak tomorrow with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the region. A few areas could reach or exceed 90°. The arrival of this warmth will mark the start of a sustained period of above normal temperatures.

No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that will likely change shortly afterward. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 90s in the New York City area and upper 90s to lower 100s in the hot spots in New Jersey. There remains some uncertainty about the magnitude of the heat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The SOI was -4.36 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.248 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal). 

 

any early call on July, Don? a continuation of the heat? do you think it will reach the magnitude of 2010-2013 or will it be somewhat less than that?

 

[steve392]

Man... Can't even go half a day without f'ing raining!  Ughhhh

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

any early call on July, Don? a continuation of the heat? do you think it will reach the magnitude of 2010-2013 or will it be somewhat less than that?

 

I expect July and August will both be warmer than normal. The pattern that is now evolving will likely be the dominant pattern this summer. I don't think next week's excessive heat will be the last such outbreak this season.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I expect July and August will both be warmer than normal. The pattern that is now evolving will likely be the dominant pattern this summer. I don't think next week's excessive heat will be the last such outbreak this season.

I agree, I guess I am asking that if the chances are higher than normal for both NYC and JFK to hit 100 degrees at least once in July, like they did during the 2010-2013 era.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Man... Can't even go half a day without f'ing raining!  Ughhhh

we had it in the morning you're getting it now.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I agree, I guess I am asking that if the chances are higher than normal for both NYC and JFK to hit 100 degrees at least once in July, like they did during the 2010-2013 era.

Assuming things dry out, there could be another opportunity.

[Wannabehippie]

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

[steve392]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we had it in the morning you're getting it now.

I had rain overnight and this morning. Cleared up do nice til before.