June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

For totals on 100° days 1993 had a slight edge on 2022.

Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
Newark Area	ThreadEx	9
WAYNE	COOP	5
LODI	COOP	4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	3
TUCKERTON 2 NE	COOP	3
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	3
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	3
TOMS RIVER	COOP	3
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	3
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	3
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	3

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3

 

and 1949 somehow had 8 in EWR and 5 99+ days at NYC, wow

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For totals on 100° days 1993 had a slight edge on 2022.

Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
Newark Area	ThreadEx	9
WAYNE	COOP	5
LODI	COOP	4
BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST	COOP	3
TUCKERTON 2 NE	COOP	3
WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E	COOP	3
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	3
TOMS RIVER	COOP	3
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	3
TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	3
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	3

 

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 days reaching 100°
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6
Newark Area	ThreadEx	6
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	5
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	5
CANOE BROOK	COOP	4
HARRISON	COOP	4
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3

 

eh to be fair Chris, 50% more is somewhat more than slight (9 to 6) 

1993 had slightly more than 1949 did though (9 to 8)

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Here are all of NYC 100+ days.

I find it somewhat ironic that the first recorded 100 degree day (in 1881) was also the latest it's ever happened, 101 on September 7th.

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/100DegreeDays.pdf

 

100 Degree Day Information at Central Park (1869 to Present)
Last Updated: 1/22/25
100 Degree Facts
* Highest Ever Recorded: 106 on July 9, 1936
Most Days by Month: June 3 + July 42 + August 13 + September 2 = Total 60 days
Most in one year: 4 (1966 and 1953)
Most consecutive 100 degree days: 3 July 8-10, 1993 & August 26-28, 1948
Last time had 100 degree day in September: the 2nd in 1953 (102)
Last time had 100 degree day in August: the 9th in 2001 (103)
Last time had 100 degree day in July: the 18th in 2012 (100)
Last time had 100 degree day in June: the 27th in 1966 (101)
100 degree days before 1900: Sept 7, 1881 (101) and July 31, 1898 (100)
All 100 Degree Days
Year Date / Temperature (°F)
2012 Jul 18/ 100
2011 Jul 22/ 104 Jul 23/ 100
2010 Jul 6/ 103 Jul 7/ 100
2001 Aug 9/ 103
1999 July 5/ 101 July 6th / 101
1995 July 15/ 102
1993 July 8/ 100 July 9/ 101 July 10/ 102
1991 July 20/ 100 July 21/ 102
1980 July 20/ 101 July 21/ 102
1977 July 18/ 100 July 19/ 102 July 21/ 104
1966 June 27/ 101 July 2/ 100 July 3/ 103 July 13/ 101
1957 July 21/ 100 July 22/ 101
1955 July 22/ 100 Aug 2/ 100 Aug 5/ 100
1954 July 14/ 100 July 31/ 100
1953 July 17/ 100 July 18/ 101 Aug 31/ 100 Sep/ 102
1952 June 26/ 100
1949 July 4/ 102 Aug 9/ 100
1948 Aug 26/ 103 Aug 27/ 101 Aug 28/ 100
1944 Aug 4/ 100 Aug 5/ 101 Aug 11/ 102
1937 July 9/ 100 July 10/ 100
1936 July 9/ 106 July 10/ 102
1934 June 29/ 101
1933 July 31/ 102 Aug/ 100
1930 July 21/ 102
1926 July 21/ 100 July 22/ 100
1918 Aug 7/ 104
1917 July 31/ 100
1911 July 3/ 100
1901 July 1/ 100 July 2/ 100
1898 July 3/ 100
1881 Sept 7/ 101

They should have done a tally by decade, so I'll try to do that myself. Number of 100+ days per decade / number of years with 100+ days per decade

1880s : 1 / 1

1890s : 1 / 1

1900s : 2 / 1

1910s : 3 / 3

1920s : 2 / 2

1930s : 8 / 5

1940s : 8 / 3

1950s : 12 / 5

1960s : 4 / 1

1970s : 3 / 1

1980s : 2 / 1

1990s : 8 / 4

2000s : 1 / 1

2010s : 5 / 3

 

Doing this tally I'm a little shocked how many 100 degree days had between the 1930s and the 1950s and despite the enormous exception of 1966 which had 4 of them (the only 4 of that entire decade!) a big downturn in 100+ degree days began during the 1960s which only spiked again in the 1990s before resuming the downward trend.  The early 2010s were an exception of course.

There is obviously something cyclical going on here. No other way to explain what happened during the 1930s-1950s period. And how quiet it was both before and after that. And look at how both the 1930s and the 1950s had half of their years (5) hitting 100+ -- that has never been matched either!

 

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They should have done a tally by decade, so I'll try to do that myself. Number of 100+ days per decade / number of years with 100+ days

1880s : 1 / 1

1890s : 1 / 1

1900s : 2 / 1

1910s : 3 / 3

1920s : 2 / 2

1930s : 8 / 5

1940s : 8 / 3

1950s : 12 / 5

1960s : 4 / 1

1970s : 3 / 1

1980s : 2 / 1

1990s : 8 / 4

2000s : 1 / 1

2010s : 5 / 3

 

Doing this tally I'm a little shocked how many 100 degree days had between the 1930s and the 1950s and despite the enormous exception of 1966 which had 4 of them (the only 4 of that entire decade!) a big downturn in 100+ degree days began during the 1960s which only spiked again in the 1990s before resuming the downward trend.  The early 2010s were an exception of course.

There is obviously something cyclical going on here. No other way to explain what happened during the 1930s-1950s period. And how quiet it was both before and after that. And look at how both the 1930s and the 1950s had half of their years (5) hitting 100+ -- that has never been matched either!

 

 

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 
 

2021

1921

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 

I know but the number of 100 degree days from the 1930s through the 1950s and the number of years with 100 degree days is far in excess of anything we had before or since so that is probably cyclical, I wonder when we will see a return to that kind of heat again?

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 
 

2021

1921

 

that is not an intellectually correct argument.

 

The air became more moist in the 2010s…significantly so.

 

That is the reason why we’ve had a significant decline in triple digit heat, but our overnight lows are much warmer.

 

You are an intelligent person.

 

You do yourself a disservice when you’re trying to push a narrative all the time.

 

It’s getting warmer and we know that, but it’s also getting more moist hence the decline in the daytime highs and the significantly warmer nighttime lows.

 

A few leaves in CPK doesnt mean much.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

that is not an intellectually correct argument.

 

The air became more moist in the 2010s…significantly so.

 

That is the reason why we’ve had a significant decline in triple digit heat, but our overnight lows are much warmer.

 

You are an intelligent person.

 

You do yourself a disservice when you’re trying to push a narrative all the time.

 

It’s getting warmer and we know that, but it’s also getting more moist hence the decline in the daytime highs and the significantly warmer nighttime lows.

 

A few leaves in CPK doesnt mean much.

It also left out the huge spike during the 1930s-1950s period

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

that is not an intellectually correct argument.

 

The air became more moist in the 2010s…significantly so.

 

That is the reason why we’ve had a significant decline in triple digit heat, but our overnight lows are much warmer.

 

You are an intelligent person.

 

You do yourself a disservice when you’re trying to push a narrative all the time.

 

It’s getting warmer and we know that, but it’s also getting more moist hence the decline in the daytime highs and the significantly warmer nighttime lows.

 

A few leaves in CPK doesnt mean much.

The leaves make a big difference, once full leaf-out occurs, Central Park diverges from the other area stations. 

Yes we're more moist, average dewpoints have been steadily rising. But the overgrowth at the park shows its effects every late spring when the canopy is fully out and complete.    

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The leaves make a big difference, once full leaf-out occurs, Central Park diverges from the other area stations. 

Yes we're more moist, average dewpoints have been steadily rising. But the overgrowth at the park shows its effects every late spring when the canopy is fully out and complete.    

but that doesn't explain that huge spike during the 30s, 40s and  50s and then we dipped during the 60s, 70s and 80s when the equipment was still properly sited.

 

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but that doesn't explain that huge spike during the 30s, 40s and  50s and then we dipped during the 60s, 70s and 80s when the equipment was still properly sited.

 

Climate variation. 

The cool down in the 60s 70s and 80s is almost certainly due to massive global aerosol production from industry and transportation. 

It was capping the effects of global warming. 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Climate variation. 

The cool down in the 60s 70s and 80s is almost certainly due to massive global aerosol production from industry and transportation. 

It was capping the effects of global warming. 

good point about the 60s-80s but the 30s-50s period might be part of a cycle and when it repeats it will be even hotter....also much drier back then.  The atmosphere is taking on the properties of water in terms of specific heat with how humid and wet it's become lol

 

[Sundog]

Not sure if the 18z GFS is a head fake but it's quite a bit cooler than the last several inferno runs and there is much more of an ocean wind effect involved. 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Not sure if the 18z GFS is a head fake but it's quite a bit cooler than the last several inferno runs and there is much more of an ocean wind effect involved. 

Getting 100+ is no easy feat here. Any small changes can be the difference between that vs 95-98F readings. We'll have to see if models back off slightly. 

[Wannabehippie]

Not directly related to what is discussed here, but still important, given the weather predictions coming up. If not appropriate to post here, I apologize in advance.

[JustinRP37]

37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Not sure if the 18z GFS is a head fake but it's quite a bit cooler than the last several inferno runs and there is much more of an ocean wind effect involved. 

I mean it is going to be quite the head fake from constant gloom and 60s to even the 90s...

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I mean it is going to be quite the head fake from constant gloom and 60s to even the 90s...

Yes haha

But 90s is nothing we've haven't seen day in and day out around here. 

The Euro runs of yesterday showing close to 110F heat were terrifying. 

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 70 for a high today

some breaks in the clouds but rain into NNJ

 

[SACRUS]

On 6/16/2025 at 7:39 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Meanwhile back at the cloudy ranch hour 60 of this cloudy period

 

 

 

 

Latest cold period

 

Jun 14

EWR: 71 / 61 (-6) 0.31
NYC: 68 / 59 (-8) 0.23
LGA: 67 / 59 (-10) 0.13
JFK: 66 / 60 (-7) 1.00
 

 

Jun 15:

 

EWR: 65 / 59 (-11) 0.19
NYC: 64 / 59 (-10) .03
LGA:  65 / 59 (-11)  0.03
JFK: 63 / 59 (-9) 0.07
 

 

Jun 16:

 

EWR: 70 / 62 (-7) 0.03
NYC: 69 / 60 (-7)
LGA: 68 / 60 (-10) 
JFK:  70 / 60 ( -5) 

Jun 17:

EWR: 71 / 63 (-6)
NYC: 67 / 62 (-8)
LGA: 68 / 62 (-9)
JFK: 66 / 64 (-4)

[TWCCraig]

Models still all over the place. GFS is pretty cool for Sunday with low to mid 80's, rains Sunday AM and clouds stick around; while the 18z Euro is now roasting hot Sunday with good offshore flow and temps in the mid 90's. Euro is still very hot Monday but places right along the coast have a sea breeze and therefore cooler. GFS has a good sea breeze for most on Monday, about 10 degrees cooler than the Euro.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Models still all over the place. GFS is pretty cool for Sunday with low to mid 80's, rains Sunday AM and clouds stick around; while the 18z Euro is now roasting hot with good offshore flow and temps in the mid 90's. Euro is still very hot Monday but places right along the coast have a sea breeze and therefore cooler. GFS has a good sea breeze for most on Monday, about 10 degrees cooler than the Euro.

 

Looks like the GFS has some minor MCS into the area while the Euro has it into northern New England on Sunday.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The decline of NYC 100° temperatures since the ASOS was installed under the trees in 1995 is all about the incorrect sitting and not about cycles. 
 

2021

1921

 

Wow, nyc has trees around its station, never heard this mentioned before. 

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Wow, nyc has trees around its station, never heard this mentioned before. 

It sure does. 

You can be surrounded by trees too.

I bet it feels really different though if you stand UNDERNEATH one instead of NEXT to one, right?

Don't be a ball buster lol

[psv88]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

that is not an intellectually correct argument.

 

The air became more moist in the 2010s…significantly so.

 

That is the reason why we’ve had a significant decline in triple digit heat, but our overnight lows are much warmer.

 

You are an intelligent person.

 

You do yourself a disservice when you’re trying to push a narrative all the time.

 

It’s getting warmer and we know that, but it’s also getting more moist hence the decline in the daytime highs and the significantly warmer nighttime lows.

 

A few leaves in CPK doesnt mean much.

Two things can be true and they are here.
 

You are an intelligent person. You can explain why Central Park is the coolest ASOS in the summer and one of the warmest in the winter. What’s the difference between summer and winter in the park which is not present in other stations?

one guess
 

 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Wow, nyc has trees around its station, never heard this mentioned before. 

Yep. Those trees block the snow too.  So they say.

[qg_omega]

10 hours ago, Sundog said:

Yes haha

But 90s is nothing we've haven't seen day in and day out around here. 

The Euro runs of yesterday showing close to 110F heat were terrifying. 

But it’s done this multiple times since its upgrade and never has come close to verifying

[jm1220]

Day #5 with rain. 

[JustinRP37]

It really has been feeling like Groundhog Day. Everyday is the same gloomy morning. This morning though it feels like soup outside.

[IrishRob17]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Day #5 with rain. 

1.03” here since Monday evening, 2.84” for the month. 

[Sundog]

57 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

But it’s done this multiple times since its upgrade and never has come close to verifying

Speaking of which, the 0Z Euro is "cooler" than previous runs, most top temps are now closer to 100. It's still the hottest model by far.

The 6z GFS is much different than the Euro. Top heat into New England. Southerly winds along the coast. 

 

[Sundog]

48 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It really has been feeling like Groundhog Day. Everyday is the same gloomy morning. This morning though it feels like soup outside.

It's gotten more humid so it doesn't even feel good anymore.