Winter 2025-26

[Ruin]

On 10/18/2025 at 1:35 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Ive all ready heard very cold and snowy to the point you wish we skip winter to battleground of the cold and warm meaning ice ice more ice. To the other extra very milk winter no snow temps 15 degrees above normal lol. 

[Jebman]

Ouch very warm dry all winter in Texas. NWS is a genius. We will be extremely hot and dry thru the winter in south Texas.

Meanwhile in other news.......numerous nor'easters smash into DCA along with anomalous cold and snow after snow after snow after snow.

It gets so dry in TX that the Diaspora begins, people leaving for moister and rainier pastures. Nothing can live in our 1930s Dust Bowl. Long range forecasts paint a very dismal picture indeed of the Southwest including Texas. almost no rain at all right into Summer 2026. Also no help from the Tropics: No hurricane landfalls expected in 2026 either, irregardless of ENSO. I know why but I am not saying. I want hurricane ravaging of the US coastlines back. I miss 2005 so much.

The eastern US will have anomalous cold along with record snowpacks, followed by a dismal chilly "spring" followed by an anomalously cool summer 2026 with plenty of rain from May 2026 onward, after a very snowy low sun period.

Many industries now moving into Texas will be leaving next year: Too Damn DRY - No water and notable dust storms reminiscent of Arizona and other places that normally get dust storms. Texas gets renamed The Haboob State, in place of The Lone Star State.

This is the future and the present folks, read em and weep. Lots factories are gonnabe getting out of Austin soon. WATER will be costlier than GOLD or even gasoline.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Ruin said:

Ive all ready heard very cold and snowy to the point you wish we skip winter to battleground of the cold and warm meaning ice ice more ice. To the other extra very milk winter no snow temps 15 degrees above normal lol. 

Whew ! Don't want a milk Winter for sure. 

[Steve25]

8 hours ago, Ruin said:

Ive all ready heard very cold and snowy to the point you wish we skip winter to battleground of the cold and warm meaning ice ice more ice. To the other extra very milk winter no snow temps 15 degrees above normal lol. 

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. 
 

I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

Assuming by neutral you mean "cold" neutral for ENSO (excluding warm neutral years) - I get the following (1990 & later) after -1 or colder novembers at KIAD:

1995-96
1996-97
2000-01
2008-09
2013-14
2021-22

Avg snowfall for those winters is 28.4" at IAD. But that includes two big years, so if we take those out, we get a more realistic target of 13.7" similar to last year.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

the 11 best enso analogs (we won’t know which actually end up the best for another month or two) since 2000 are the Novembers of 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024

There does seem to be some correlation between a colder November and a better chance at snow those winters.  These are stats for BWI. 
 

The 4 warmest November’s were 2001, 2011, 2022 and 2024 and those years went on to average 3.9” of snow. 
 

The 4 Coldest were 2000, 2013, 2017, 2021 and they went on to average 19.4”  

Now let’s assume 2013-14 was a fluke outlier (which I do) even if we remove it and replace it with the next coldest year 2005-6 the mean is 14.5” which is close to a median winter at BWI and significantly better than 3.9” 

So it does seem colder November=better 

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Anyone got winter stats at BWI, IAD, or DCA for a cold November in a weak -ENSO or ENSO neutral?

For the most part we in Dc benefit the most from a mid  December start to a cold pattern. They never last more than one solid month or interspersed in a two month period and then back to mild trend .  I think Nov is about a 50/50 split  whereas in general we do not want October to be solidly below average 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Assuming by neutral you mean "cold" neutral for ENSO (excluding warm neutral years) - I get the following (1990 & later) after -1 or colder novembers at KIAD:

1995-96
1996-97
2000-01
2008-09
2013-14
2021-22

Avg snowfall for those winters is 28.4" at IAD. But that includes two big years, so if we take those out, we get a more realistic target of 13.7" similar to last year.

Thank you for the analysis. I do appreciate it.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

the 11 best enso analogs (we won’t know which actually end up the best for another month or two) since 2000 are the Novembers of 2000, 2001, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024

There does seem to be some correlation between a colder November and a better chance at snow those winters.  These are stats for BWI. 
 

The 4 warmest November’s were 2001, 2011, 2022 and 2024 and those years went on to average 3.9” of snow. 
 

The 4 Coldest were 2000, 2013, 2017, 2021 and they went on to average 19.4”  

Now let’s assume 2013-14 was a fluke outlier (which I do) even if we remove it and replace it with the next coldest year 2005-6 the mean is 14.5” which is close to a median winter at BWI and significantly better than 3.9” 

So it does seem colder November=better 

Thank you. Seems like we don't torch and have a short to get at least one warning level snowfall event. I'll take it.

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

For the most part we in Dc benefit the most from a mid  December start to a cold pattern. They never last more than one solid month or interspersed in a two month period and then back to mild trend .  I think Nov is about a 50/50 split  whereas in general we do not want October to be solidly below average 

I appreciate the insight. Thank you!

[bncho]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Assuming by neutral you mean "cold" neutral for ENSO (excluding warm neutral years) - I get the following (1990 & later) after -1 or colder novembers at KIAD:

1995-96
1996-97
2000-01
2008-09
2013-14
2021-22

Avg snowfall for those winters is 28.4" at IAD. But that includes two big years, so if we take those out, we get a more realistic target of 13.7" similar to last year.

adding on to @Terpeast's message above for DCA and BWI...

Snowfall @ IAD | DCA | BWI
1995-96: 61.9" | 46.0" | 62.5"
1996-97: 17.8" | 6.7" | 15.3"
2000-01: 12.9" | 7.4" | 8.7"
2008-09: 8.0" | 7.5" | 9.1"
2013-14: 52.8" | 32.0" | 39.0"
2021-22: 15.8" | 13.2" | 14.4"
-----
Averages:
IAD: 28.2"
DCA: 18.8"
BWI: 24.8"
IAD minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 13.6"
DCA minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 8.7"
BWI minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 11.9"

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like a +PNA pattern into the 1st and 2nd week of November. We haven't seen a big Aleutian ridge pattern much this year, or really since the 2023-2024 Strong Nino. Before then we were seeing it all the time. It doesn't mean that we won't see -PNA this Winter, but the pattern isn't "the norm" right now, like it was before. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like a +PNA pattern into the 1st and 2nd week of November. We haven't seen a big Aleutian ridge pattern much this year, or really since the 2023-2024 Strong Nino. Before then we were seeing it all the time. It doesn't mean that we won't see -PNA this Winter, but the pattern isn't "the norm" right now, like it was before. 

Yeah you're right about that. Hopefully it is a larger shift rather than a blip.