May 2025

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Central Park is 57 degrees, colder than the stations on the east end and the ones getting rain lol

Oooooooook

Manhattan is the coldest spot in the area ahahahahahaha

Montreal 81, Boston 76…sux for us

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would love to see some data on the amount of forest fires in the Canadian Tiaga forests historically. That area is basically uninhabitable so if fires are significantly increasing is size and frequency it’s a good climate change marker. I would think they have, so to the over the top patterns we have seen. And of course the smoke events here the last few years.

We started seeing record heat and drought well north into Canada since around 2021. May 2023 was pretty extreme with the record 500mb blocking leading to the worst wild fires on record especially in Eastern Canada. So this current over the top warming is just a continuation of the same theme. 
 

 

[winterwx21]

0.08" so far this afternoon here. I was wondering if the rain might hold off until late afternoon due to the dry air as the RGEM was showing, but nope. It came in early and has been a wet afternoon. Temp fell to 55 and it feels raw out there. Looks like a good soaking tonight of more than a half inch. 

[Brian5671]

Still dry here but the rain shield creeping N and E

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, lee59 said:

In California for example, 95% start by people or people related scenarios.

I'll never forget their largest fire-- Camp Fire (?) was started by fireworks being shot off at a gender reveal party by the father.

A !@##$ gender reveal party!

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We started seeing record heat and drought well north into Canada since around 2021. May 2023 was pretty extreme with the record 500mb blocking leading to the worst wild fires on record especially in Eastern Canada. So this current over the top warming is just a continuation of the same theme. 
 

 

thats crazy, how does near 90 degree heat make it that far north and just skip right over us? Is it going due north from the SW right into Canada?

2023 was the year we had those awful sky conditions in June?

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats crazy, how does near 90 degree heat make it that far north and just skip right over us? Is it going due north from the SW right into Canada?

2023 was the year we had those awful sky conditions in June?

Yeah, the heat builds in CA and goes up into Canada. This time of year in 2023 was when we had the record air pollution from the Canadian wildfires. That had to be some if the worst air quality we ever saw. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the heat builds in CA and goes up into Canada. This time of year in 2023 was when we had the record air pollution from the Canadian wildfires. That had to be some if the worst air quality we ever saw. 

I think the AQI reached the highest number it can ever be, which is 500.

It was like the Dust Bowl meets Mars around here lol.

 

[Dark Star]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll never forget their largest fire-- Camp Fire (?) was started by fireworks being shot off at a gender reveal party by the father.

A !@##$ gender reveal party!

 

But the worst are "Activists" trying to make a point out there...

[donsutherland1]

Showers will continue into tomorrow. An additional round of showers and thundershowers is possible Friday night and Saturday. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the month with the exception of Friday.

Meanwhile daily record and possible monthly record heat could develop for Friday and Saturday in such cities as Redding and Sacramento.

June looks to be warmer than normal on the CFSv2. However, just as had been the case for May, the AI guidance is notably cooler than the conventional models.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +25.07 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.238 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.7° (0.5° below normal).

 

[Sundog]

Today might be the last legit cool day we have until next fall. 

[jm1220]

Jeez-baseball size hail severe warning for Austin. I’m back home in the gunk but today wasn’t even supposed to be a severe day there. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Today might be the last legit cool day we have until next fall. 

cool days are much better when it's sunny.

I'm going to miss days like Monday and Tuesday.

[[email protected]]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

cool days are much better when it's sunny.

I'm going to miss days like Monday and Tuesday.

It won't be. I am getting more and more convinced that we are going a 1992, 96, 2000, 2004, 2009 summer around here.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

It won't be. I am getting more and more convinced that we are going a 1992, 96, 2000, 2004, 2009 summer around here.

1992 really stands out to me especially because it was so influenced by the Pinatubo eruption.  It would be really interesting to see how it compares to those other summers you mentioned.  I think 2014 was like that too.

 

[[email protected]]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1992 really stands out to me especially because it was so influenced by the Pinatubo eruption.  It would be really interesting to see how it compares to those other summers you mentioned.  I think 2014 was like that too.

 

2014 wasn't as cool as these summers.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

2014 wasn't as cool as these summers.

The under 5 90 degree day summer list is an interesting one, for example I remember 1996 as warm and very humid, not really cool.  I remember one particularly oppressive day when it was 81 degrees with 100% humidity completely overcast and a horrible day.  It started out so hot with two days in the mid to upper 90s in May and only ended up with one more 90 degree day, when it barely hit 90 on the last day of August.

1992 was much cooler than 1996.

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jeez-baseball size hail severe warning for Austin. I’m back home in the gunk but today wasn’t even supposed to be a severe day there. 

77 mph gust reported at the airport apparently. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

77 mph gust reported at the airport apparently. 

Does that do damage around there? Like uprooted trees, or is everything so resilient from severe all the time that it’s no big deal?

[[email protected]]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The under 5 90 degree day summer list is an interesting one, for example I remember 1996 as warm and very humid, not really cool.  I remember one particularly oppressive day when it was 81 degrees with 100% humidity completely overcast and a horrible day.  It started out so hot with two days in the mid to upper 90s in May and only ended up with one more 90 degree day, when it barely hit 90 on the last day of August.

1992 was much cooler than 1996.

Can you post the under 5 90 degree list? I feel that 2025 could very easily join this list.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Does that do damage around there? Like uprooted trees, or is everything so resilient from severe all the time that it’s no big deal?

There’ll definitely be some minor property/tree damage from that and power outages most likely, but a lot of the trees there are thicker oak trees that don’t come down too easily. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, jm1220 said:

There’ll definitely be some minor property/tree damage from that and power outages most likely, but a lot of the trees there are thicker oak trees that don’t come down too easily. 

I figured there had to be some kind of damage. 78mph straight line winds around here would make a big mess.The last time we had anything close to that (from thunderstorms) region wide was the 98 Labor Day derecho.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Can you post the under 5 90 degree list? I feel that 2025 could very easily join this list.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

 

It's a pdf file but here it is

Extreme Weather Watch also has the same list you can view on their site, the two lists match.  I had to check because there were somehow 9 90 degree days in 1992 and I don't remember a single one of these 9 days LOL

 

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/new-york/yearly-days-of-90-degrees

 

They also have LGA's list

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/laguardia-airport/yearly-days-of-90-degrees

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Can you post the under 5 90 degree list? I feel that 2025 could very easily join this list.

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/july/page/2/

 

on the opposite end, I really like this list, it shows how hot our summers *used to* be.

a super heatwave is defined as three days in a row of 95+

 

The majority of days with highs of 90° or hotter in New York fall in the 90-92 range (56% to be exact).  And while the average number of 90-degree days each year is eighteen (including readings in the triple digits), the average number of readings that reach 95° or higher is just three (and about one out of every four years have had no highs that hot, the most recent being the summer of 2017).  The most in one year was sixteen, in 1955.  What follows are some more hot-Hot-HOT weather observations, best read in a well air-conditioned environment:  

• Eleven years (since 1872) have had ten or more days with readings of 95°+, with the most recent being 2002, which had 13.

• Although 1955 is the year with the most days with highs of 95° or hotter, it ranks 19th in total number of 90-degree days (with 25).  Incredibly, nearly two-thirds of its 90°+ days were 95°+ (the average is one-in-six).

 

• The greatest concentration of years with with well above-average number of days with 95°+ readings was 1952-1955, when there were nine in 1952, twelve in 1953 and sixteen in 1955 (1954 had four, two of which were highs of 100°).

 

• Although 1917 had only six days in the 90s/100s, the last four, on consecutive days, were sizzlers, with highs of 98°-100°-98°-98°. 

• The earliest excessively hot days occurred on April 18, 1976 and April 17, 2002, both which had highs of 96°, and on May 19, 1962 when the temperature topped out at a blistering 99°.  On the late side, the high reached 99° twice on Sept. 11, in 1931 and in 1983; and on Sept. 23, 1895 the high was 97°.

• The most consecutive days with highs of 95° or hotter ("super" heat waves) is eight, in 1944.  There has also been a streak of six days (in 1953) and seven that were five days in a row.  The last time we experienced a "super" heat wave of five days or longer was during the summer of 2002 (which is the only one among the eight lengthiest to have no highs in the triple digits).

• The hottest temperature ever recorded in New York, 106° on July 9, 1936, came in the middle of a three-day super heat wave, with the day before having a high of 97° and the day after, 102°.

 

 

• The hottest early "super" heat wave occurred in 1925 when highs of 99°-99°-98°-96° were experienced from June 4 to June 7.  The latest was in 1895 when there was a streak of three days from Sept. 21 to 23 (95°-95°-97°).

• In 1944, which had thirty-seven 90-degree days, the first twenty-four were below 95°, but then 11 of the next 13 were 95° or hotter (concentrated in the four weeks between Aug. 4 and Sept 2).

• Perhaps the most famous super heat wave was July 1977's, which coincided with New York's infamous blackout.  However, although the blackout began on the first day of a nine-day heat wave, the five days in a row with highs of 95+ began the day after power was restored: 98°-98°-97°-100°-102° (July 15-19).  And after a one-day respite on the 20th (high of 92°) the next day's high jumped to 104°.  

• In less than six weeks in the summer of 1949 (July 3-Aug. 11) there were three three-day super heat waves: 99°-102°-95° (July 3-5); 97°-99°-95° (July 28-30); and 100°-98°-99° (Aug. 9-11).

 

• Finally, the hottest super heat wave of four days or more was in 1993 when the five days from July 7-11 averaged 99.8°, with highs of 98°-100°-101°-102°-97°.  Two years earlier there was another streak of five days in a row, from July 17-21: 96°-99°-96°-100°-102°.  Then after a one-day break, when the high "cooled" to the upper 80s, the high on 7/23 was 99°.   (A three-day "super" heat wave on July 1-3, 1966 had an average high of 100.3°.)

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I figured there had to be some kind of damage. 78mph straight line winds around here would make a big mess.The last time we had anything close to that (from thunderstorms) region wide was the 98 Labor Day derecho.

I call that the 1998 Labor Day tornado outbreak.

We also had a notable one on Memorial Day in 1998 and the one which stands out for how widespread it was across the country actually happened in October 1989.

[LibertyBell]

• The most consecutive days with highs of 95° or hotter ("super" heat waves) is eight, in 1944.  There has also been a streak of six days (in 1953) and seven that were five days in a row.  The last time we experienced a "super" heat wave of five days or longer was during the summer of 2002 (which is the only one among the eight lengthiest to have no highs in the triple digits).

This is the record I find the craziest by far, we don't even get 7 + consecutive days of 90 + anymore, let alone 8 consecutive days of 95 +

1944 really stands out.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/july/page/2/

 

on the opposite end, I really like this list, it shows how hot our summers *used to* be.

a super heatwave is defined as three days in a row of 95+

 

The majority of days with highs of 90° or hotter in New York fall in the 90-92 range (56% to be exact).  And while the average number of 90-degree days each year is eighteen (including readings in the triple digits), the average number of readings that reach 95° or higher is just three (and about one out of every four years have had no highs that hot, the most recent being the summer of 2017).  The most in one year was sixteen, in 1955.  What follows are some more hot-Hot-HOT weather observations, best read in a well air-conditioned environment:  

• Eleven years (since 1872) have had ten or more days with readings of 95°+, with the most recent being 2002, which had 13.

• Although 1955 is the year with the most days with highs of 95° or hotter, it ranks 19th in total number of 90-degree days (with 25).  Incredibly, nearly two-thirds of its 90°+ days were 95°+ (the average is one-in-six).

 

• The greatest concentration of years with with well above-average number of days with 95°+ readings was 1952-1955, when there were nine in 1952, twelve in 1953 and sixteen in 1955 (1954 had four, two of which were highs of 100°).

 

• Although 1917 had only six days in the 90s/100s, the last four, on consecutive days, were sizzlers, with highs of 98°-100°-98°-98°. 

• The earliest excessively hot days occurred on April 18, 1976 and April 17, 2002, both which had highs of 96°, and on May 19, 1962 when the temperature topped out at a blistering 99°.  On the late side, the high reached 99° twice on Sept. 11, in 1931 and in 1983; and on Sept. 23, 1895 the high was 97°.

• The most consecutive days with highs of 95° or hotter ("super" heat waves) is eight, in 1944.  There has also been a streak of six days (in 1953) and seven that were five days in a row.  The last time we experienced a "super" heat wave of five days or longer was during the summer of 2002 (which is the only one among the eight lengthiest to have no highs in the triple digits).

• The hottest temperature ever recorded in New York, 106° on July 9, 1936, came in the middle of a three-day super heat wave, with the day before having a high of 97° and the day after, 102°.

 

 

• The hottest early "super" heat wave occurred in 1925 when highs of 99°-99°-98°-96° were experienced from June 4 to June 7.  The latest was in 1895 when there was a streak of three days from Sept. 21 to 23 (95°-95°-97°).

• In 1944, which had thirty-seven 90-degree days, the first twenty-four were below 95°, but then 11 of the next 13 were 95° or hotter (concentrated in the four weeks between Aug. 4 and Sept 2).

• Perhaps the most famous super heat wave was July 1977's, which coincided with New York's infamous blackout.  However, although the blackout began on the first day of a nine-day heat wave, the five days in a row with highs of 95+ began the day after power was restored: 98°-98°-97°-100°-102° (July 15-19).  And after a one-day respite on the 20th (high of 92°) the next day's high jumped to 104°.  

• In less than six weeks in the summer of 1949 (July 3-Aug. 11) there were three three-day super heat waves: 99°-102°-95° (July 3-5); 97°-99°-95° (July 28-30); and 100°-98°-99° (Aug. 9-11).

 

• Finally, the hottest super heat wave of four days or more was in 1993 when the five days from July 7-11 averaged 99.8°, with highs of 98°-100°-101°-102°-97°.  Two years earlier there was another streak of five days in a row, from July 17-21: 96°-99°-96°-100°-102°.  Then after a one-day break, when the high "cooled" to the upper 80s, the high on 7/23 was 99°.   (A three-day "super" heat wave on July 1-3, 1966 had an average high of 100.3°.)

the 1940s and 1950s were really something for big heat, in addition to the extreme heatwaves of 1944, 1948, 1953 and 1955 we also had this stunning number from 1949

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2012/07/a-history-of-triple-digit-heat-in-new-york.html

 

• In the ten-year period between 1948-1957 the temperature hit 100°+ in seven of the years.  The most consecutive years with a 100-degree reading is four, occurring between 1952-1955.  The second longest streak happened relatively recently, the three years between 2010-12.  And in 1936 and 1937, both years had 100+ readings on July 7 and 8.

• The earliest 100-degree day was June 26, 1952; the latest on Sept. 7, 1881. Not surprisingly 70% of the 100-degree days have occurred in July.  Despite the bulk of 100-degree days in July, none has ever been reported between July 24-30.   

• July 21 is the day most likely to have a triple-digit reading.  They've occurred six times on this date.  Next most likely is July 22, which has seen 100 degrees+ in four years.  (July 18 is the day most likely to have a 90-degree day.) 

• There have been two three-day streaks with highs in the triple digits - Aug. 26-28, 1948 (103-101-100) and July 8-10, 1993 (100-101-102). 

• Finally, fourteen years got very close, but didn't reach the triple-digit threshold, with their hottest readings peaking at 99°.  1949, in addition to two days in the 100s, had three days with highs of 99°.  

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I figured there had to be some kind of damage. 78mph straight line winds around here would make a big mess.The last time we had anything close to that (from thunderstorms) region wide was the 98 Labor Day derecho.

This was definitely a bad one. Lots of wind and hail reports and partly collapsed gas station. https://www.kxan.com/weather/gallery-storms-downpour-rain-hail-across-central-texas-wednesday/

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/65000-austin-energy-customers-without-power-multiple-water-rescues-after-hailstorm#

67K Austin customers without power. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I figured there had to be some kind of damage. 78mph straight line winds around here would make a big mess.The last time we had anything close to that (from thunderstorms) region wide was the 98 Labor Day derecho.

We had straight line winds several years ago just before Covid. We went to the basement. Thought there was a legit tornado. Trees down. No power. Retaining wall by Republic airport fell. I have to try to find it. Was not that long ago 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

We had straight line winds several years ago just before Covid. We went to the basement. Thought there was a legit tornado. Trees down. No power. Retaining wall by Republic airport fell. I have to try to find it. Was not that long ago 

That must have been during that tropical storm that we were on the east side of (the windier side).... 80 mph winds widespread on Long Island.  A giant tree fell in the Rockaways and caused a ton of damage.