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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not trolling but :o

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Memorial Day 2013 redo? 

MANCHESTER, N.H. — A combination of a low pressure system off the coast of northern New England and a blast of cold Canadian air meant some Granite Staters woke to snow on the ground this Memorial Day weekend.

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21 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Memorial Day 2013 redo? 

MANCHESTER, N.H. — A combination of a low pressure system off the coast of northern New England and a blast of cold Canadian air meant some Granite Staters woke to snow on the ground this Memorial Day weekend.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/05/27/3-feet-of-snow-in-upstate-ny-on-memorial-weekend/2363673/
 

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ensembles are mainly clustered well south which is good 

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I suspect the Euro is overzealous ...  Mostly for philosophical reasons.  

Firstly, it's not impossible.  In 2002, I saw noodly mangled aggregates mixing in with general cat paw rains with tree swaying NE gusts on May 22nd where I was living at the time, Waltham, Ma.  It was carrying on from a storm that looked a lot like what this Euro run was selling on the 00z.  So yeah ... it can happen.   I just would feel better about that if it were all D4 ...not D8

There's just longer termed ( like years worth actually - ) observation of modeling biases and behavior that would argue the Euro could certainly by over phased at this range - and it is a phased scenario in that run.   

All models - in fact - are charging the hemisphere with -NAO.   The NAO domain overall is not really very well handled by any guidance, particularly out in time.  Compounding that aspect is the fact that is still spring, albeit getting into later spring ... but we're still passing through a higher error time of the year.  So the short version of this paragraph is that the NAO has to be first very accurately outlooked at a range whence it seldom is, and doing so at a time of the year when it almost never is...

Good luck Euro. 

Plus, it's not different than in January, when the model has a D8 bomb then ... You're better off with hinting of a storm in that range, and then having it emerge into those indicators passing thru D5s ...

Having said all that... the trade off is not a balmy glorious time of it.  The westerlies are torpedoing later in the year than normal, with lots of vigorous waves propagating coming across the country, while the uncertainties with the NAO  ...that does not mean "no" NAO.  It just means that how it relates/influences is unlikely to be precisely how the Euro ends up with all that from this range.   The 00z/06z GFS blend is probably a better solution with more progressivity and a just keeping things moving along, but the westerlies overall are suppressed S of normal so...it's not sending any warm vibes. 

 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Memorial Day 2013 redo? 

MANCHESTER, N.H. — A combination of a low pressure system off the coast of northern New England and a blast of cold Canadian air meant some Granite Staters woke to snow on the ground this Memorial Day weekend.

Why not

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Does anyone know where to find historical Europe weather obs? 
 

I am in Warsaw right now, on the 29th floor of a building, and it was snowing outside for about 10 minutes. Unclear if it hit the ground-but trying to understand how anomalous this would be at this time of year. 

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