Spring 2025 Banter Thread

[sbnwx85]

105 mph is wild.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   750 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest into West-Central Minnesota
     Central and Eastern North Dakota
     Northern South Dakota

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 750 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
       gusts to 105 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...An intense squall line is forecast to rapidly move east
   across the Watch area this evening into the overnight period.  A
   potential supercell tornado risk may develop with any storms that
   develop ahead of the squall line.  A tornado risk may accompany the
   stronger and more persistent embedded circulations within the line. 
   Widespread severe gusts (60-80 mph) are expected.  Swaths of 80-105
   mph gusts are possible with the more intense portions of the
   convective line.

[outflow]

5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

105 mph is wild.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   750 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest into West-Central Minnesota
     Central and Eastern North Dakota
     Northern South Dakota

   * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 750 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
       gusts to 105 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...An intense squall line is forecast to rapidly move east
   across the Watch area this evening into the overnight period.  A
   potential supercell tornado risk may develop with any storms that
   develop ahead of the squall line.  A tornado risk may accompany the
   stronger and more persistent embedded circulations within the line. 
   Widespread severe gusts (60-80 mph) are expected.  Swaths of 80-105
   mph gusts are possible with the more intense portions of the
   convective lineDere

 

01z outlook is a perfect match to the track of the 1995 right turn Derecho

[SolidIcewx]

5 minutes ago, outflow said:

 

01z outlook is a perfect match to the track of the 1995 right turn Derecho

I was just reading into some of the old analogs. That’s a good one

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Some people not really expecting severe weather could get quite a surprise if the Derecho keeps up steam 

[SolidIcewx]

4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Some people not really expecting severe weather could get quite a surprise if the Derecho keeps up steam 

It’s been awhile for a super long track derecho. See how it plays out.

[sbnwx85]

Warnings for 90 mph winds in North Dakota currently 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Iowa Derecho 2.0 

[Sydney Claridge]

Even this gust front got a severe thunderstorm warning with a “destructive” tag. 

It’s incredible how much wind energy there is.

 

[cyclone77]

I'd like to trade this ROF pattern in for a different one.  This particular one is lame AF.

[hawkeye_wx]

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'd like to trade this ROF pattern in for a different one.  This particular one is lame AF.

Yep.  It's late June and we are still waiting for the first MCS activity of the year.  Storm season has been a dud.

[Jackstraw]

Well the tree and power line trucks are gone. I swear you'd have thought we got hit by a hurricane by as many of them that were all over this area until yesterday. Took a drive over the weekend and it was pretty bad for the trees, big trees, I mean 2-3 footers, 6in-1ft limbs down everywhere. From my previous hurricane life conditions were similar to a slow approaching hurricane as the specific area around me was hammered with up to a half foot of rain so we were already flooding when that line hit. That meant the trees and the ground were pre-soaked and primed to fall if there were strong enough winds and there were. Easily close to 1 min sustained strong TS force with Cat 1, maybe Cat 2 gusts through that area. Eerily similar to how widespread tree damage is caused along the coast in strong TS's/weak Hurricanes only without a storm surge.

Been awhile since I've seen that much widespread tree damage around here, especially central Madison over into Delaware and Blackford counties. Along with the gusting "almost a D word" line there was also a significant downburst, IMO, through that area as a pre-frontal cell that blew up ahead of that line was consumed within it. You can see it in these 2 radar images from KIND's event page. The first Image, its in front of the main line as it was blowing up just SW of Marion and the second, you can almost see the exact shape of it embedded within the line just ENE of its previous position almost directly S of Marion. What was even more interesting, to me anyway, was a very small ragged "donut hole" type feature immediately behind it. That "donut hole" artifact or whatever it was passed right over my position where I nearly hit a tree as it came down. I don't think its radar shadowing or anything like you would see during a hurricane. I really think, IMO, its a radar image of a downburst or microburst (are there Sting Jets in severe lines?lol) from or enhanced by that rapidly forming small SUP out ahead, possibly from it collapsing within the line accelerating the forward "gust front" even more. I mean that thing shot up to 55kft in like 20min on Radarscope before the "Meg" line ate it lol. That's why I was chasing it. It had a rapidly lowering wall cloud, a good hail core (2-2.5 inchers reported directly under its position in the Alexandria, Summitville areas) and was just forming a nice tail/hook on radar (you can see that a bit in the first image). Back flow was ramping up into that little SUPs gut as the updraft accelerated.  Went from maybe 15 to 20KTs, more parallel flow from the SSW, then suddenly veered to easily 30-35KTs from the SSE as I got about 2 miles S of it.

I'm more than likely over analyzing it lol. It more likely the ton of very localized rain that resulted in so many large trees and limbs concentrated in that area as opposed to more spread out in other areas. I counted at least 65 entire trees larger than 2 feet either uprooted or snapped just on my 2 hour drive. North and south, where they didn't get massively presoaked there was not nearly as much concentrated tree damage though. But those radar images kind of puzzled me when KIND put them out Sunday triggering the ADHD non scientist in me 

One of the stranger storm chases I've done. Wasn't prepared, very chaotic spur of the moment chase looking out the windows, at the radar on the phone at 45 to 50mph on country roads (around Moonville IN, the worst place to chase lol), in and out of densely wooded areas along White River and suddenly dodging falling trees and sideways rain all at the same time lol. 

Whatever, sorry for the long post, I'm just out of heat therapy but it was nutz lol.

(Don't get on me about safety, y'all have done it before lmao)

https://www.weather.gov/ind/june182025severe

[King James]

I'd like to trade this ROF pattern in for a different one.  This particular one is lame AF.

Everything has missed here so far, very little relief. Early morning clouds today are nice but humidity feels like it’s rising. I’m over it as well

[Jackstraw]

It will be really nice to get a perfectly timed pop up storm in this pattern to give a quick cool down and have one enjoyable (moderately anyway) evening. This 80 degrees at midnight crap is still giving me flashbacks. Anything after 6. Anything earlier would suck. They need to come out for localized advisory's for early-mid afternoon showers in this setup. Something like an Emergency Sauna Advisory lol.

[IWXwx]

7 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

It will be really nice to get a perfectly timed pop up storm in this pattern to give a quick cool down and have one enjoyable (moderately anyway) evening. This 80 degrees at midnight crap is still giving me flashbacks. Anything after 6. Anything earlier would suck. They need to come out for localized advisory's for early-mid afternoon showers in this setup. Something like an Emergency Sauna Advisory lol.

Right?! I had a severe-warned around 6 PM that predictably collapsed before it got here. I can't understand IWX warning pulse storms moving 15 MPH unless they are predicting imminent collapse and an associated downburst. Ended up with 0.04" and a virtual sauna as you mentioned.

[A-L-E-K]

looks like it was p rockin'

 

 

[cyclone77]

Well in about 2hrs we'll officially close out the 24-25 snow season, and lock in the new all-time futility record at MLI with just 8.2".  That beats what I always thought was untouchable old record of 9.9".  

Would be awesome if we could go to the other extreme next season and achieve the most snowfall ever.  That would be insanely cool to pull off.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Well in about 2hrs we'll officially close out the 24-25 snow season, and lock in the new all-time futility record at MLI with just 8.2".  That beats what I always thought was untouchable old record of 9.9".  

Would be awesome if we could go to the other extreme next season and achieve the most snowfall ever.  That would be insanely cool to pull off.

Detroit nearly did this in 1880-82 the other way around. The winter of 1880-81 had a previously untouchable 93.6" followed by a pitiful 13.2" in 1881-82. Both records stood for a while, although now both rank 2nd, behind 2013-14 (94.9") and 1936-37 (12.9"). While both winters of 1881-82 & 1936-37 were pitiful, 1881-82 was much, MUCH warmer, easily the least wintry on record. 

Side note- there are some discrepancies in some snow data pre-1885 at Detroit. While a good amount of accurate data exists 1874-1885, due to multiple obvious errors and some M data, they dont include 1874-79 in the official record. However, IMO you could extend this to 1885, as there are discrepancies in these years as well. 1880-81 data that I see comes out to 79.4", so unsure where the extra snow comes from (I would need to look at the archaic books at DTX to find out). It would still rank 2nd (3rd is 78.0"), but if 79.4" is the true number, it makes 2013-14's 94.9" even more impressive in that its 15.5" more than 2nd place). Also, 1881-82 comes out to 11.5", which would make that #1, not #2 least snowy.

All of those technicalities aside, the number of instances where an unusually low snow season is followed by an unusually heavy one, and vice versa, are multiple. So Ill call it now. Above avg snow for MLI in 2025-26.

[Malacka11]

Planning to go back to Warren Dunes on the 5th. Was there for the first time this year on the very first day of this recent heat wave. It was already pretty decent. Since then, water temps have risen an additional like 7 degrees. 

[happyclam13]

This place seems cool