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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, rimetree said:

Low of 41F. Could be a 40-degree day here.

After stopping at 70 yesterday the temp dropped to 34 again, and we're in the mid-upper 70s - first 'forty' since last April and first 41+ since June of 2023.  Bit of a breeze but we're well into a 2nd cloudless day - not a common thing in April.

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BML 29° to 81° 

52° is the greatest diurnal range I've recorded here, in Feb 2000 (29/-23).  That month also had spreads of 49, 42 and 40. 
Fort Kent is the champ for my records, 38/-21 in Jan 1980 thanks to a strong (and wet) warm front.  However, 2/2/76 was more spectacular, dropping 57° (46/-11) between noon and 8 PM, also 44 to -6 between 1 and 6 PM, on howling NW winds.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF...GFS later next week. Fuji wara wara...Fuji bang bang

I feel that is unlikely to happen.  It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. 

For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way...

In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh.  But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error.

I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable.  I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo.   It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde.  

Personally...?  I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.  

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel that is unlikely to happen.  It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. 

For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way...

In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh.  But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error.

I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable.  I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo.   It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde.  

Personally...?  I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.  

Agree Euro looks more reasonable. Close to disaster in SW SNE though. It came NE a bit too. EPS does agree with the op. 

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