Spartman Posted Sunday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:17 AM 8-14 day: Lookin' wet 12z Euro: 18z GFS: Judah bringing up Greenland Blocking leading to a chilly 4th week of May as the large disruption by March's polar vortex comes to an end.https://x.com/judah47/status/1920869876068970801 Another Omega Block shaping up the week before Memorial Day weekend?https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1921357712945734046 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 PM SPC introduced a Day 6 risk yesterday for this coming Thursday the 15th and maintains it today. No surprise as GFS and Euro have been relatively consistent with a pattern that would support severe weather primarily across Wisconsin, northern into central Illinois, western Indiana and perhaps far eastern Iowa. Here's the 500mb forecast from the most recent GFS, nice negative tilt with the left exit region pointed squarely into the region. That alone would suggest a higher likelihood of actually producing than April 28th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Looks like another miss for this area. This time to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:27 PM Impressive heat in the upper Midwest. Up to 99F as of 1 pm at Grand Forks, North Dakota. Should have no problem clearing 100+, which would be the second earliest on record. The earliest 100+ reading occurred on April 21, 1980. There have only been 3 days in the month of May at or above 100F in recorded history at that location: 101F on 5/21/1964; 105 on 5/30/1934; and 100 on 5/30/1939. The monthly record high of 105F is probably safe, but I could see the high ending up between 102F and 104F with 2-3 hours of heating possible, so it could make a run for it. At Grand Forks, there have been a total of 62 days at or above 100F recorded since 1893. If it gets above 102F, that would be pretty rarified air for any time of the year. There have only been 20 days above 102F, of which 8 occurred during the summer of 1936, which was particularly harsh in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:42 PM 6-10 day: 8-14 day: Just in time for Memorial Day weekend :sarcasm: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM ^^^Fine with me!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Monday at 01:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:30 AM 3 hours ago, Powerball said: ^^^Fine with me!!! Not fine according to 18z GFS. Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s): The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Monday at 01:55 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:55 AM Not fine according to 18z GFS. Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s): The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s):might get 49’d on the 22nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Monday at 10:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 10:55 AM extended looks great imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted Monday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:34 PM 06Z GFS throwing out wacked precip totals for the next 10 days with upwards of 7- 8 inches near the Chicago area, 3-4 around here. It needs to back off the shrooms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Ain't gonna lie, the Spartman posts for Memorial Day have me spooked. We're due for an ugly one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM 22 hours ago, Spartman said: Not fine according to 18z GFS. Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s): The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s): Definitely wouldn't be fine if I lived in Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 18 hours ago, Powerball said: Definitely wouldn't be fine if I lived in Ohio... Wouldn't be fine when JB officially starts talking about Memorial Day weekend, as of this morning.https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922282897592971662 CFS v2 and CPC agree. CFS v2: CPC: There are a lot of times that cold Memorial Day weekends have been followed by cooler than normal summers like 2003, 1996, or 1992. Also, the NAO and PNA will be negative by that time while the AO is near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago euro looks wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Obviously Thursday is the more immediate issue, but next Tuesday looks like another potential severe threat in the region given general surface/500mb pattern. Parameter space doesn't look impressive on the 18Z GFS because the model blows out the warm sector with a huge amount of simulated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Uber drivers in Indy be prayin' for cool rain Memorial Day weekend. Have the The Fever at home, then the 500 AND Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals (sorry to any of our OH brethren that had hope ) Sat and Sun respectively. Naptown be wakin up Memorial Day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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