Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Spartman]

8-14 day:

Lookin' wet 

12z Euro:

18z GFS:

Judah bringing up Greenland Blocking leading to a chilly 4th week of May as the large disruption by March's polar vortex comes to an end.
https://x.com/judah47/status/1920869876068970801

Another Omega Block shaping up the week before Memorial Day weekend?

https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1921357712945734046

[CheeselandSkies]

SPC introduced a Day 6 risk yesterday for this coming Thursday the 15th and maintains it today. No surprise as GFS and Euro have been relatively consistent with a pattern that would support severe weather primarily across Wisconsin, northern into central Illinois, western Indiana and perhaps far eastern Iowa.

Here's the 500mb forecast from the most recent GFS, nice negative tilt with the left exit region pointed squarely into the region. That alone would suggest a higher likelihood of actually producing than April 28th.

[cyclone77]

Looks like another miss for this area.  This time to the east.

[TheClimateChanger]

Impressive heat in the upper Midwest. Up to 99F as of 1 pm at Grand Forks, North Dakota. Should have no problem clearing 100+, which would be the second earliest on record. The earliest 100+ reading occurred on April 21, 1980. There have only been 3 days in the month of May at or above 100F in recorded history at that location: 101F on 5/21/1964; 105 on 5/30/1934; and 100 on 5/30/1939. The monthly record high of 105F is probably safe, but I could see the high ending up between 102F and 104F with 2-3 hours of heating possible, so it could make a run for it.

At Grand Forks, there have been a total of 62 days at or above 100F recorded since 1893. If it gets above 102F, that would be pretty rarified air for any time of the year. There have only been 20 days above 102F, of which 8 occurred during the summer of 1936, which was particularly harsh in that region.

[Spartman]

6-10 day:

8-14 day: Just in time for Memorial Day weekend :sarcasm:

[Powerball]

^^^Fine with me!!!

[Spartman]

3 hours ago, Powerball said:

^^^Fine with me!!!

Not fine according to 18z GFS.
Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s):

The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s):

[Chicago Storm]

Not fine according to 18z GFS.
Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s):

The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s):

might get 49’d on the 22nd.

[A-L-E-K]

extended looks great imby