2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I dont think alot of people forecasted a very cold winter in the east.  I think the big disruption to the PV in late November changed the whole winter pattern .

They didnt. I had a good feeling about the winter here, but i certainly didnt think it would be as cold as it is. Its the perfect combo of above avg snowfall, above avg snowcover, and below avg temps in Michigan. 

[michsnowfreak]

Here come the low post troll accounts 

[EastonSN+]

Was not expecting to see this steep spike in the AO!

Perhaps we go positive for a while until the SSWE kicks in in March?

[snowfan789]

47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

You're both missing the point that @roardog and I are making, though its not surprising as you dont seem to be longterm regular posters in this and previous years enso threads.

This forum is EXTREMELY east based. So much so that roardog and I practically feel on the outskirts being in eastern Michigan. The east had been going through a stretch of mild to warm winters, with the core of the persistent warmest anomalies being the east coast. A lot of nonsense was being thrown about the inability for the east to get another cold winter, as if the 2010s were a generation ago, not a decade ago. Now this will be the 2nd colder than avg winter in a row for the eastern third of the US, with this year the coldest so far since 2014 or 2011.

Nowhere did I say the cold was unprecedented, nor did I say that the west's snow drought isn't a major deal. Dig up some old threads from 2017 or 2023 when the east was mild, see if the heavy snow/cold in the west got a single mention. 

I’ve been a regular reader of this blog and its predecessors for about 20 years. I seldom post because, in general, I don’t think I have the expertise to meaningfully contribute. I’ve started occasionally posting recently because I think it is important to note the truly exceptional warmth and lack of snow in significant parts of the West this season, where longstanding records are absolutely being smashed. It is a big deal and should be part of the dialogue alongside the discussion about a kind of chilly and snowy season in parts of the East (only) that’s not historically noteworthy. Just my opinion though.

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was not expecting to see this steep spike in the AO!

Perhaps we go positive for a while until the SSWE kicks in in March?

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

You think it will take that long for the effects of the SSWE to be realized?

[snowman19]

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

Judah Cohen thinks one more SPV stretch this week then a Canadian warming

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, snowfan789 said:

I’ve been a regular reader of this blog and its predecessors for about 20 years. I seldom post because, in general, I don’t think I have the expertise to meaningfully contribute. I’ve started occasionally posting recently because I think it is important to note the truly exceptional warmth and lack of snow in significant parts of the West this season, where longstanding records are absolutely being smashed. It is a big deal and should be part of the dialogue alongside the discussion about a kind of chilly and snowy season in parts of the East (only) that’s not historically noteworthy. Just my opinion though.

You are always welcome to post. In fact its encouraged to get more firsthand accounts from other areas of the country. The climate in general is VERY different out West (my brother lived in Denver for 2 years, he knows firsthand). Hell its very different in the Great Lakes vs New England even though the overall winters are comparable. 

To be more blunt, some ridiculous "predictions" were made by a few about the inability to get cold winters in the east, and we now have 2 winters in a row colder than average. There is a lot of bias from some that clouds their otherwise reasonable judgment at times. 

This winter here is cold and snowy. The lake ice is thick. Wind chills are below zero daily. Its not historically noteworthy, but its a harsh winter. Most of us weather enthusiasts #1 priority is our own backyards. When we have a mild winter and you a cold one, i dont expect you to feel bad, and you are always welcome to post your obs/data/pics. Just how it works when we all share a hobby but live in different regions 

[e pluribus unum]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

You're both missing the point that @roardog and I are making, though its not surprising as you dont seem to be longterm regular posters in this and previous years enso threads.

This forum is EXTREMELY east based. So much so that roardog and I practically feel on the outskirts being in eastern Michigan. The east had been going through a stretch of mild to warm winters, with the core of the persistent warmest anomalies being the east coast. A lot of nonsense was being thrown about the inability for the east to get another cold winter, as if the 2010s were a generation ago, not a decade ago. Now this will be the 2nd colder than avg winter in a row for the eastern third of the US, with this year the coldest so far since 2014 or 2011.

Nowhere did I say the cold was unprecedented, nor did I say that the west's snow drought isn't a major deal. Dig up some old threads from 2017 or 2023 when the east was mild, see if the heavy snow/cold in the west got a single mention. 

I don't think any reasonable person is going to argue that cold anomalies aren't possible moving forward. Obviously that's an irrational take. And I don't post often but I've had an account on here for over a decade. 

I think you're missing the initial point which was that what we've seen this winter across North America still aligns quite well with what you'd expect to see in a warming world. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yeah that -NAO has been the source of our cold since December even while the western half of US was roasting in December and January. If the -NAO goes positive, while we'll still have some entrenched cold, it could get pretty warm at the end of the month. Even with a SSW, there's no certainty that it'll lead to a March 2018 scenario. Could easily lead to a March 2023 scenario which was not as frutiful for most of us 

2023 just took too long to develop. By the time things turned cold, it was already May and June, and the snow season was over. We got our coldest June since 1985, and (tied with 3 other years) for 31st coldest June overall at PHL. To put into perspective how impressive that cold was, December 2025 was only the 48th coldest December, while January 2025 was the 46th coldest and January 2026 was the 59th coldest January in PHL.

[MJO812]

Weeklies show a brief moderation towards mid February . It dropped the very cold idea. It does keep the northeast cool.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2023 just took too long to develop. By the time things turned cold, it was already May and June, and the snow season was over. We got our coldest June since 1985, and (tied with 3 other years) for 31st coldest June overall at PHL. To put into perspective how impressive that cold was, December 2025 was only the 48th coldest December, while January 2025 was the 46th coldest and January 2026 was the 59th coldest January in PHL.

No, it impacted March, but the extreme RNA still worked mid atlantic and SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, NyWxGuy said:

Yeah that -NAO has been the source of our cold since December even while the western half of US was roasting in December and January. If the -NAO goes positive, while we'll still have some entrenched cold, it could get pretty warm at the end of the month. Even with a SSW, there's no certainty that it'll lead to a March 2018 scenario. Could easily lead to a March 2023 scenario which was not as frutiful for most of us 

No it hasn't, the North Pacific has. -NAO can prevent a torch and help to lock cold in when it matters, but it's not the source of this arctic flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Take a look at set ups with decidedly +EPO/+WPO/-NAO...promise it won't be this cold, and often downright mild...we've seen some examples over the past several years.

[George001]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies show a brief moderation towards mid February . It dropped the very cold idea. It does keep the northeast cool.

Yeah there will probably be a brief relaxation period.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah there will probably be a brief relaxation period.

Probably centered on when the actual split is taking place.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at set ups with decidedly +EPO/+WPO/-NAO...promise it won't be this cold, and often downright mild...we've seen some examples over the past several years.

March 2018/2023 redux?

[raindancewx]

The Canadian doesn't have a +WPO for February. My guess is its understating the cold again nationally. +WPO is low pressure NE Asia/NW Pacific to the north of high pressure SE/Asia/SW Pacific. We don't have that and have not had it. This is the +WPO, its opposite of the winter -

Also, subsurface verified +0.47 for 100-180W 0-300m depth in January. That's not a La Nina, sorry. December was only -0.03, so the subsurface is almost certain to finish quite warm for DJF, which explains the active subtropical jet, lack of cold overall in the NW/Plains, lack of SE ridging, etc etc.

January 2025 was -1.33 for the same subsurface reading for what its worth.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's not an official La Nina, no.

[snowfan789]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

You are always welcome to post. In fact its encouraged to get more firsthand accounts from other areas of the country. The climate in general is VERY different out West (my brother lived in Denver for 2 years, he knows firsthand). Hell its very different in the Great Lakes vs New England even though the overall winters are comparable. 

To be more blunt, some ridiculous "predictions" were made by a few about the inability to get cold winters in the east, and we now have 2 winters in a row colder than average. There is a lot of bias from some that clouds their otherwise reasonable judgment at times. 

This winter here is cold and snowy. The lake ice is thick. Wind chills are below zero daily. Its not historically noteworthy, but its a harsh winter. Most of us weather enthusiasts #1 priority is our own backyards. When we have a mild winter and you a cold one, i dont expect you to feel bad, and you are always welcome to post your obs/data/pics. Just how it works when we all share a hobby but live in different regions 

Thanks for your message. Maybe I will post a little more often to add a voice from a region that’s not well represented here.

Denver does have especially unusual weather. My family left the Front Range for the CO mountains in 2021. The weather tends to be more stable here and can be very interesting - and very boring (long dry spells). I’m “only” at 7000’ but we usually have a solid snowpack from December to March. Not this year, though. We’re probably 50+” below normal seasonal snowfall at this point and it gets worse compared to normal heading east towards the Divide and up in elevation. Most ski resorts in CO are around 50% open or less, which is just mind boggling for February.

I joined an older version of this board around 2005, as a New England resident at the time, and still remember fondly the intense excitement of tracking big coastal winter storms. But, broadly speaking, there really is no comparison between the importance of snow in the East vs West for the health of the environment and related things like tourism. A poor snowpack out here, especially year after year, can inflict a massively detrimental impact on forests, fauna, water supply, fire season, the economy, etc. I say this simply to provide a little more context for my repeated and likely forthcoming grumbling about the state of the snowpack in the West. It’s a very important metric for many reasons beyond simply enjoying snow for enjoyment’s sake - though that is certainly a reason to root for winter as well!

[GaWx]

 Those who are sick of the cold E US pattern and thus want it to end ASAP and stay away (definitely not me) must love the much warmer E US vs how it looked late last week on the models for mid-Feb. Due to much warmer models for the E US weeks 2-3 vs how they looked Friday, natural gas opened as sharply down as I can ever recall it doing (-15%!). I hope BAM isn’t too upset lol. 

 When you realize how much warmer the EPS is vs Fri, you’d realize one of the reasons:

 Fri 12Z EPS HDD (lower left purple): week 2 gradually warmed only to normal HDD

 Today’s 12Z EPS HDD (lower left purple): week 2 now plunges to significantly below normal HDD/warmer than normal causing the HDD for Feb 8-13 to drop sharply from 148 to 124.

 

 In addition, today’s Euro Weeklies for week 3 (2/16-22) are significantly warmer in the E US vs Fri’s run:
 

Friday (1/30/26) Euro Weeklies temps for 2/16-22:

 

Today’s (2/1/26) Euro Weeklies temps for 2/16-22:

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, snowfan789 said:

Thanks for your message. Maybe I will post a little more often to add a voice from a region that’s not well represented here.

Denver does have especially unusual weather. My family left the Front Range for the CO mountains in 2021. The weather tends to be more stable here and can be very interesting - and very boring (long dry spells). I’m “only” at 7000’ but we usually have a solid snowpack from December to March. Not this year, though. We’re probably 50+” below normal seasonal snowfall at this point and it gets worse compared to normal heading east towards the Divide and up in elevation. Most ski resorts in CO are around 50% open or less, which is just mind boggling for February.

I joined an older version of this board around 2005, as a New England resident at the time, and still remember fondly the intense excitement of tracking big coastal winter storms. But, broadly speaking, there really is no comparison between the importance of snow in the East vs West for the health of the environment and related things like tourism. A poor snowpack out here, especially year after year, can inflict a massively detrimental impact on forests, fauna, water supply, fire season, the economy, etc. I say this simply to provide a little more context for my repeated and likely forthcoming grumbling about the state of the snowpack in the West. It’s a very important metric for many reasons beyond simply enjoying snow for enjoyment’s sake - though that is certainly a reason to root for winter as well!

When my brother lived in Denver, he knew going in it was going to be up and down (he loves skiing) but still it became a convenience that regardless what Denvers flavor of the day was (a snowstorm and 10° or sunny and 60°), if it wasnt snowing you could count on the cobalt blue skies and feet of powder in the mountains. And of course thst snowmelt in spring was necessary for the semi arid landscape. Knowing that its an unprecedented winter out there doesn't make me happy at all. I wish I could make it snow for you guys, just not at our expense.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not an official La Nina, no.

Wait...so this winter is likely going in the books as cold neutral?

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wait...so this winter is likely going in the books as cold neutral?

It will because it won't meet the 5 consecutive months at or blow -0.5 criteria, but I considered it a La Niña, anyway....per MEI and RONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Those who are sick of the cold E US pattern and thus want it to end ASAP and stay away (definitely not me) must love the much warmer E US vs how it looked late last week on the models for mid-Feb. Due to much warmer models for the E US weeks 2-3 vs how they looked Friday, natural gas opened as sharply down as I can ever recall it doing (-15%!). I hope BAM isn’t too upset lol. 

 When you realize how much warmer the EPS is vs Fri, you’d realize one of the reasons:

 Fri 12Z EPS HDD (lower left purple): week 2 gradually warmed only to normal HDD

 Today’s 12Z EPS HDD (lower left purple): week 2 now plunges to significantly below normal HDD/warmer than normal causing the HDD for Feb 8-13 to drop sharply from 148 to 124.

 

 In addition, today’s Euro Weeklies for week 3 (2/16-22) are significantly warmer in the E US vs Fri’s run:
 

Friday (1/30/26) Euro Weeklies temps for 2/16-22:

 

Today’s (2/1/26) Euro Weeklies temps for 2/16-22:

Makes sense, as there is usually a break right when the SSW takes place,.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

March 2018/2023 redux?

Definitely not a March 2018 redux. That was a record snowy March here at PHL, and quite frankly, I can't see that outcome happening again.

At some point, I've got to think this string of cold months has to end at some point. Even in 2018, we had the very warm February that interrupted an otherwise cold and snowy winter pattern.

[GaWx]

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Idk about that. Seems to me as though it's shaping up to be a warm Feb nationally. Check tonight's model runs for example and tell me with a straight face we see such a large area of -5 to -7 departures by month's end. Hell the AI models are showing record warmth at times for the Midwest, almost like a hybrid of Feb 2017 and Feb 2024. Not saying it'll be that warm as those were legendary torch months, but I'm just not seeing a cold pattern; things are starting to change in the Pacific. I know these sudden warmer trends are shocking to some, but we also need to stay objective here.

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Idk about that. Seems to me as though it's shaping up to be a warm Feb nationally. Check tonight's model runs for example and tell me with a straight face we see such a large area of -5 to -7 departures by month's end. Hell the AI models are showing record warmth at times for the Midwest, almost like a hybrid of Feb 2017 and Feb 2024. Not saying it'll be that warm as those were legendary torch months, but I'm just not seeing a cold pattern; things are starting to change in the Pacific. I know these sudden warmer trends are shocking to some, but we also need to stay objective here.

There is going to be a brief warmup but the month should end up cold.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

WxBell is cold in the E in general and downright very cold in the NE for Feb. Eric Webb has also had cold E US thoughts for quite awhile though I haven’t seen an actual Feb map from him.
Any opinions?

Wxbell (JB) ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!!