2025-2026 ENSO

[EasternLI]

Hmm, this is an interesting chart depicted by last night's eps cluster analysis. Not for whatever it may be depicting in anyone's backyard. The leading cluster in the day 11-15 range is this one. 

That progression of the troposphere gets really close to something resembling EOF2 from the following paper. With the +NAO and Scandinavian block. The progression leading to it is even pretty close to what is depicted in the paper. The Scandinavian Greenland dipole. Worth keeping an eye out for that phenomenon in future runs. As it's not something that's well modeled in advance. But a depiction of something like that on a prominent piece of guidance is interesting. 

Representation of the Scandinavia–Greenland pattern and its relationship with the polar vortex in S2S forecast models

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3892

From the abstract:

"The strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is a key contributor to subseasonal prediction during boreal winter. Anomalously weak polar vortex events can be induced by enhanced vertically propagating Rossby waves from the troposphere, driven by blocking and wave breaking. Here, we analyse a tropospheric pattern—the Scandinavia–Greenland (S–G) pattern—associated with both processes. The S–G pattern is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of mean sea-level pressure in the northeast Atlantic. The first EOF is a zonal pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation. We show that the S–G pattern is associated with a transient amplification of planetary wavenumber 2 and meridional eddy heat flux, followed by the onset of a weakened polar vortex, which persists for the next two months."

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Mark Moregarbage’s wishcast of a major SSWE, full wind reversal, a SPV split, MJO phase 8, arctic cold death and KU blizzards up the east coast by Christmas week looks like it’s going to work out superbly!! 

[brooklynwx99]

you know, some of you keep giving that guy a platform by breathlessly posting about him. we know he sucks