2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around

I mean, he totally went against what the EURO weeklies and the other ensembles were showing run after run for early December and if that should actually happen, maybe he’s onto something?

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10

Should be the other way around

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around

Did the SSW actually happen/still on track to happen?

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10

 
 This only recently seen on the models cold shot is for the weekend after Thanksgiving. So, this is technically during the last days of Nov. Then I still expect a mainly mild first half of Dec. while the MJO crosses 7 and we wait to see what the SSWE does just afterward. Of course expectations and reality sometimes don’t match well.

[MJO812]

Euro is now cold in the long range. Big change.

[kazimirkai]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Should be the other way around

Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so. 

[George001]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Should be the other way around

The 500mb pattern shown in Roundys post actually looks quite favorable for New England. -EPO/-NAO/-PNA with an SE ridge that does not link up with the block. It’s also worth noting that the -NAO here is more east based than south based like the past few years. 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp anomalies vs prior run in E US

Dec 1-7: slightly cooler NE US but still mild overall Mid-Atlantic and especially SE/warmest week of Dec

 

Dec 8-14: NE cooled slightly from slightly AN to NN but SE ~same

 

Dec 15-21: slightly warmer SE (was NN); ~same NE

 

Dec22-28: slightly warmer but still coldest week of Dec