2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

I follow Max with severe weather but what's his track record with winter?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-has-formed-winter-2025-2026-latest-impacts-el-nino-reversal-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[stadiumwave]

12z GEPS 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Awesome. How much is he asking for a monthly subscription? 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

New Weeklies, month of DEC looks cold through Christmas.

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

[stadiumwave]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

DEC 23-28

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/16/#findComment-129642

[stadiumwave]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Also, I would add Weeklies is based on 0z data. There were noticeable 12z changes on EPS, GEFS, GEPS. Ridge not ridge gone on GEPS & less prevalent on EPS & GEFS than it was on 0z for the 11-15 day. It will be interesting to see the early period on tomorrow's Weeklies update. 

Here is the epo on the eps

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But they for much of Dec actually have a stronger SE ridge than prior runs even though they show it weakening through the month: these, which are from the ECMWF site, itself, are definitely not showing persistent cold in the E US, especially Mid-Atlantic and more especially in the SE. Heart of the cold is Chicago W and SW.

 

Dec 1-7: significantly warmer than prior runs thanks to SE ridge

 

Dec 8-14: slightly warmer than prior runs

 

Dec 15-21:

Dec 22-28:

Cansips run this month for December not far off all things considered.