2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Record cold in southeast according to news. Assuming this is due to la Nina.

My city’s official low (KSAV) as of 7AM EST was way down to 28 F, which beats the 31 record low for the day (records back to 1874). Not only that but also:

-last time it was this cold or colder this early in season was 1976

-colder than 78% of coldest for ENTIRE November

-last time it was colder in entire November was 2014

 

[GaWx]

 @donsutherland1put together and posted this excellent table in the SE thread that says a lot about how historic this cold is in the Deep South:

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We weren’t in full, across the board La Niña mode yet at this time last year like we are now. Just to name one, remember how positive the AAM was early on? That’s an El Nino signal. The OLR early on last year is another example. I honestly can’t think of a one single non Niña aspect to the ocean or the atmosphere right now

And don't forget about Nino 1+2. That was in el nino mode all winter long.

[EastonSN+]

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total.  Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total.  We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.  

[BlizzardWx]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Here in NJ, after Jan, I got 5.25" total.  Dec and Jan I got 55", so 60.25" total.  We were on our way to breaking the 95/96 winter then it pretty much did stop.  

Over my way it began when it stopped for you all. Snowiest February on record and the Oklahoma state record coldest temperature. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One thing that does bother are references to 2010/2011 being "over" in after January. There was a moderate overruning event later that season. Even without a SSWE we can get snow late season in a la Nina. 

Yeah, people forget about that cool down in the last third of March 2011. Turned a solidly positive temperature departure to a near normal.

I feel like the previous winter (2009-10) was more abrupt. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow by February 10, and the snow just stopped. The change was so dramatic, to the point there was record 90-degree heat during the first week of April.

It's amazing, though, how so much snow was able to fall in such a short time during those 2 winters. And in 2 very different ENSO states (2009-10 being a strong el nino, and 2010-11 being a strong la nina).

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but notice the coolest anomalies are out west which would indicate either a broad trough and/or a strong Pacific jet. 

If you're looking for snow, you're not going to get much in that pattern. This winter could very well be like last with relatively colder anomalies but a lack of snow due to unfavorable storm tracks. 

100% this is not a snow look. We get snow only when the rockies torch under a huge ridge. Which is extremely unlikely now that we're in a nina. I see a BN winter ahead, at least south of Boston.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Over my way it began when it stopped for you all. Snowiest February on record and the Oklahoma state record coldest temperature. 

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here.