2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously.

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously.

Anthony,

 I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out.

[GaWx]

On 1/17/2026 at 6:19 PM, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be:

 

 

On 1/17/2026 at 8:24 PM, snowman19 said:

^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really….

 

On 1/17/2026 at 8:33 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.

 
 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in late Jan that never occurred? 

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 

 
 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? 

At this time, especially with the seasonal transition underway, one has to be cautious about such events given model skill limitations. The "spring ENSO barrier" in prediction remains real. By early summer, the picture should be clearer. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

 

 
 How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? 

There were some pretty bad posts during this past winter. Sometimes you just have to be patient and see what happens. 

[MJO812]

On 3/18/2026 at 8:15 PM, GaWx said:

 Anthony, today’s NAO forecast is consistent with yesterday’s (bad/+):

Yesterday’s GEFS:

 

Today’s GEFS:

This was a fail. Those earlier predictions of going negative was wrong. This put an end to any winter threats. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though

Defintely 

That was the wildcard this month 

[GaWx]

Hey @Stormchaserchuck1any thoughts about this?

Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F!

The current coldest DJFM:

1965-6: -12.9F El Niño 

1970-1: -11.6F La Niña 

1933-4: -11.1F La Niña 

1917-8: -10.6F La Niña

 By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F!

Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I've been surprised how cold Alaska has been this Winter relative to the 500mb pattern there. There hasn't been a lot of strong +EPO.