MJO812 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. Anthony, I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 1/17/2026 at 6:19 PM, snowman19 said: @donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be: On 1/17/2026 at 8:24 PM, snowman19 said: ^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really…. On 1/17/2026 at 8:33 PM, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it. How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? At this time, especially with the seasonal transition underway, one has to be cautious about such events given model skill limitations. The "spring ENSO barrier" in prediction remains real. By early summer, the picture should be clearer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? There were some pretty bad posts during this past winter. Sometimes you just have to be patient and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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