2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

[GaWx]

 The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25.
 

 It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 30 sunspot averaged winters.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Mitch.

 Although we have to take this CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much less active ACE hurricane season vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27: N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26: sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27

Edit: I’m going to soon repost this in the El Niño 2026-7 thread and remove the images from this one due to our limitations on attachments as I just realized it better belongs there.

Yeah, I  screwed up putting it inbthus thread. I'll delete my post here and repost it. Then your post will make better sense.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I  screwed up putting it inbthus thread. I'll delete my post here and repost it. Then your post will make better sense.

Hey Mitch, thanks for doing that. You could go ahead and delete this post if you’d like.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/28/2026 at 6:58 PM, donsutherland1 said:

It was an elite winter in the NYC area. Winter season statistics are below:

MET Winter 2025-26 at Detroit
 

DJF avg temp: 25.2F (-3.2F)
43rd coldest out of 153 years
Coldest since 2014-15 

Coldest temp: -10F on Jan 24
# of days with a low below 0F: 5 (most since 2018-19)
# of days with a low 9F or colder: 21 (most since 2014-15)
# of days with a low 32F or colder: 84 (most since 2013-14)
# of days with a HIGH 32F or colder: 45 (most since 2014-15)

DJF precip: 3.92” (-2.64”)
17th driest out of 153 years
Driest since 2020-21

DJF snowfall: 32.9” (-2.5”)
51st snowiest out of 153 years
Snowiest since 2020-21
Largest snowstorm: 6.1” – Jan 14/15
Season snowfall thru 2/28- 38.8” (+1.5”)

Days with 1”+ snowcover: 61 (most since 2013-14)
Days with 6”+ snowcover: 21 (most since 2014-15)
Peak snow depth: 9” (Jan 26, Jan 27, Jan 28, Jan 29, Feb 7)
19th most days with 1”+ snowcover out of 121 years

Insane stat- In a winter full of deep cold and white ground, we managed to touch 60F+ 3 times this cold winter. Each time was a very brief but rapid spike. While not close to the record of 7, these 3 days were spaced out one in each month DJF. This is only the 2nd time on record this occurred. The other time was a very warm winter (1889-90). 

Lets compare- In an era when everyone wants to compare things to CC, the irony is that this winter most closely resembled a handful of winters from the 1900s-1910s. The cold temperatures, frequent snowfall, and solid blanket of snow that covered the ground most of the time but without any huge storms, and with NO big precip makers, is a throwback to the colder, drier climate of that era. 

Two in a Row- This is the 2nd colder than normal winter in a row. Last winter finished 0.9F below avg and this one 3.2F below avg. Last winter saw average snowcover despite below avg snowfall, so this is also 2 years in a row where snow covered the ground in a greater capacity than would be expected with the amount of snow that fell.

If I had to guess- Ill say next winter locally will be milder with less snowcover but a bigger snowstorm than each of these past 2 winters.

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey @stormtracker could we fix the pinning in this sub? The last El Niño from like 3 winters ago is somehow still pinned, lol

[EastonSN+]

Starting to show movement to phase 8.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey @stormtracker could we fix the pinning in this sub? The last El Niño from like 3 winters ago is somehow still pinned, lol

Yeah, we should pin the 2026-27 el nino thread, and unpin the 2023-24 el nino.

[GaWx]

The winter of 2025-6 had only 18 of its 90 days with a WPO >0. That’s the lowest # of days since the very cold winter of 1962-3, which had only 11 (lowest number of any since 1948-9). 1956-7 had only 16. So, 2025-6 had the 3rd lowest. I think 1967-8 is in 4th with 21 of its 91 days >0:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[GaWx]

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE?
 

EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago:

Today’s wk 3: colder E US

Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29):

Today’s week 4: colder E US

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE?
 

EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago:

Today’s wk 3: colder E US

Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29):

Today’s week 4: colder E US

I would have bet money the weeklies would cool at least week 3 seeing how all the ensembles look by mid month. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE?
 

EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago:

Today’s wk 3: colder E US

Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29):

Today’s week 4: colder E US

Man the Euro weeklies beyond 2 weeks have been deeply unserious all winter--they've been hawking the warmups all winter only and then bail out everytime, lol

[EastonSN+]

COD

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

COD

Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS

 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

Reminder: phase 7 has averaged even colder than 8 in March following Niña winters as phase 8 has averaged 2nd coldest. Another reminder: as always these are merely averages of a wide array of actuals for each phase. (I use Baltimore as a rep. city to calculate these since it’s in the middle of the E coastal U.S.)

March Niña by phase (whether inside or outside COD):

1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo)

2: -0.1

3: +1.8

4: +0.3

5: +2.1 (2nd warmest)

6: +2.6 (warmest)

7: -1.7 (coldest)

8: -0.7 (2nd coldest)

 

AVG: +0.7

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Source: drroyspencer.com

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup GEFS is weaker in 8 therefore not AS cold but definitely below normal.

Once you get to 3/15 and beyond, it’s very late/very rare for snowstorms south of New England. Can it happen? Yes. Has it happened? Yes. Can you totally rule it out? Obviously not. Would I bet on it? No. It takes an extremely anomalous, freak event at that point 

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Once you get to 3/15 and beyond, it’s very late/very rare for snowstorms south of New England. Can it happen? Yes. Has it happened? Yes. Can you totally rule it out? Obviously not. Would I bet on it? No. It takes an extremely anomalous, freak event at that point 

It would take a lot to have it happen but I wouldn't go as far to say a freak event.

The blizzard of 1888 was a freak event.

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It would take a lot to have it happen but I wouldn't go as far to say a freak event.

The blizzard of 1888 was a freak event.

If there was a strong west-based -NAO block along with a strong -AO showing up, then I’d say yes, there’s definitely a better chance, but none of the ensembles are showing that 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there was a strong west-based -NAO block along with a strong -AO showing up, then I’d say yes, there’s definitely a better chance, but none of the ensembles are showing that 

EPS would work as there would be enough cold air with the depth of the trough and the PV on our side of the globe. 

The GEFS depiction would be tough.

[MJO812]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Cold is not returning any time soon:

[GaWx]

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22 (beware Ides of Mar)

Yesterday’s:

Today’s:

Just 3 runs ago 3/16-22 was mild:

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon:

 Now show the Euro, the Euro ensemble, the AI Euro, the AI Euro ensemble, the AI GFS, the AI GFS ensemble, the GFS ensemble, and the GEM ensemble at 12z for that same hour 294.

[GaWx]

On 2/26/2026 at 11:00 PM, GaWx said:

That’s news to me, Anthony, even up your way:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are mild, not cold, at midmonth:

Mar 9-15: way above normal NYC

 

Mar 16-22: AN NYC

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

[GaWx]

More on how much colder Mar 16-22 has gotten in just a few runs with a look at massive H5 change:

Just 5 days ago (2/27 run) for Mar 16-22:

Today’s for Mar 16-22: beware Ides of Mar!

[Cobalt]

33 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Cold is not returning any time soon

 

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22

Back to back posts. Just lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

All the roll-forward stuff from the Winter was suggesting March would be near normal to below in the eastern 1/3 of the US.. seems to be beating the Euro weeklies in the long range

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22 (beware Ides of Mar)

Yesterday’s:

Today’s:

Just 3 runs ago 3/16-22 was mild:

Using NYC as an example and assuming the departures below normal being shown are correct for 3/16-3/22, what would the actual temps (highs) in degrees F be when compared to normal high temperatures in that time frame (3/16-3/22)? Just a ballpark if that verified?