2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

Horrible Spring ?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible Spring ?

If by “horrible” you mean cool spring in the E US, good! Bring it on as I love it way down here! Actually cool late Mar/early April here means highs mainly 60-75 and lows 40-50 along with nice low dewpoints for great outdoor wx.

[cmillzz]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

In terms of warmth, the Southwest and parts of TX will be heating up this week. February records could be challenged or broken in numerous locations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here. 

You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based. 

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS very warm March 7-11. DCA could make a run at 70s.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible

Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

[EastonSN+]

Wow

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow

 I’m even more speechless than yesterday! For Mar 7th, the mean has plunged from +20 with only 2% reversing around then a mere 5 runs ago to -11 and 100% reversing on today’s!! Again, I’ve never seen anything anywhere close to this much run to run drop before. 
 
 Despite this, the EW run for the 3 weeks near and after Mar 7th is even milder than yesterday!

[LakeEffectOH]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible

Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

I wonder if next winter's El Nino is going to be more like a La Nina.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible

Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

We’re not in an el nino yet

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not like the @raindancewx guy, who had most of the snow away from the east coast. Glad I went at least normal to somewhat above for snowfall on the east coast. I used 2014 as a seasonal analog and 2015 as a +TNH analog because I thought it would be really fucking snowy where 95% of us live in winter 2025-2026. Now we really have a "smiley face".

 

 

The winter here so far has had below avg precip, slightly above avg snowfall, solidly below avg temps and above avg snowcover. It was a really good winter but without any big storms (biggest to date 6.2") and shockingly dry for a nina (fortunately nearly all meaningful precip has been snow). Winter wasted no time getting going in late November, but the longstanding snowpack melted in a thaw earlier this week. Winter once again showed that enso is just one piece of the puzzle. With each passing winter we learn more and more how detailed outlooks like yours prove far more valuable thsn the repetitious "el nino" or "la nina" national outlook maps always issued.

Regarding the east coast snow, especially in areas that are feast/famine, they saw a feast after multiple years of famine. Hopefully this will put to rest some of the nonsense talk by some that NYC was a spiraling lost cause from which they'd never return. Cc does not stop local weather conditions from their normal ebb and flow around climo.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

I wonder if next winter's El Nino is going to be more like a La Nina.

CPC thinks so

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow

Typical -NAO correlation lag at that time of year is +15 days

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Typical -NAO correlation lag at that time of year is +15 days

Resulting in the typical cold and rainy spring. 

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC thinks so

Aren't el ninos generally warmer AND snowier than average for the northeast and MA? Its usually not a furnace but just cold enough to snow.

[EastonSN+]

Assuming phase 6 in March in a la nina is warm?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Assuming phase 6 in March in a la nina is warm?

March following Nina winter by phase (based on Baltimore): remember these are just averages

1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo)

2: -0.1

3: +1.8

4: +0.3

5: +2.1 (2nd warmest)

6: +2.6 (warmest)(also warmest in Feb)

7: -1.7 (coldest)

8: -0.7 (2nd coldest)

 

AVG: +0.7 for all phases

 

Phase 6 breakdown:

MB 3

B 1

N 7

A 4

MA 5

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

March following Nina winter by phase (based on Baltimore): remember these are just averages

1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo)

2: -0.1

3: +1.8

4: +0.3

5: +2.1 (2nd warmest)

6: +2.6 (warmest)(also warmest in Feb)

7: -1.7 (coldest)

8: -0.7 (2nd coldest)

 

AVG: +0.7 for all phases

 

Phase 6 breakdown:

MB 3

B 1

N 7

A 4

MA 5

We are going to roast for a while it seems.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Typical -NAO correlation lag at that time of year is +15 days

So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So, with the lag, the -NAO/-AO should start around the Equinox (3/20)?

Still plenty of time for snow for NYC on north especially at night and if there is sufficient cold.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still plenty of time for snow for NYC on north especially at night and if there is sufficient cold.

  Hoping this means a BN late March/early April down here, which would be pleasant (highs mainly 60s to 75 with low dewpoints and lows mainly 40s…anything to hold off the build up heat leading to summer is always fine with me).

[GaWx]

GEFS still has huge disagreement with EPS! Also, JMA is much closer to EPS fwiw and is actually even further from GEFS!

 

EPS

 

JMA