2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

Horrible Spring ?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible Spring ?

If by “horrible” you mean cool spring in the E US, good! Bring it on as I love it way down here! Actually cool late Mar/early April here means highs mainly 60-75 and lows 40-50 along with nice low dewpoints for great outdoor wx.

[cmillzz]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

In terms of warmth, the Southwest and parts of TX will be heating up this week. February records could be challenged or broken in numerous locations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here. 

You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

i’ll just agree to disagree that the weak nino classification itself matters more than the SSTAs. 18-19, 19-20 were also weak ninos. yea, i agree that weak ninos, on average, tend to have the favorable central pacific SSTAs that produces good winters for boston. also when i say “traditional standards” i’m referring to canonical east based. 

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z GEFS very warm March 7-11. DCA could make a run at 70s.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible

Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

[EastonSN+]

Wow

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow

 I’m even more speechless than yesterday! For Mar 7th, the mean has plunged from +20 with only 2% reversing around then a mere 5 runs ago to -11 and 100% reversing on today’s!! Again, I’ve never seen anything anywhere close to this much run to run drop before. 
 
 Despite this, the EW run for the 3 weeks near and after Mar 7th is even milder than yesterday!

[LakeEffectOH]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

So much for warm ENSO subsurface effecting pattern right now.. Feb-March La Nina state in Hadley Cell 2018-2026 has been incredible

Bright sun in late Winter really correlating with +NPH (North Pacific High)

I wonder if next winter's El Nino is going to be more like a La Nina.