2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

Horrible Spring ?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Horrible Spring ?

If by “horrible” you mean cool spring in the E US, good! Bring it on as I love it way down here! Actually cool late Mar/early April here means highs mainly 60-75 and lows 40-50 along with nice low dewpoints for great outdoor wx.

[cmillzz]

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

That’s a very strong warm signal for being so far out, quite noteworthy IMO. Def something to keep an eye on to see if it trends towards something historic or just a run-of-the-mill early spring warm up.

In terms of warmth, the Southwest and parts of TX will be heating up this week. February records could be challenged or broken in numerous locations.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Regardless, it looks like you nailed the SSWE even if it happens in March, you were only a few weeks off. You’ve basically nailed the entire winter since November. Impressive and congrats. As far as mid-late March, I believe the SSW/SPV split forecasts. It likely causes high latitude blocking after mid-March. Whether or not it benefits people south of New England’s latitude as far as more snow? Who knows

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I knew I should have stuck to my gut and kept 2013-14 as a top analog. We were in a solar max/-PDO heading towards neutral/2nd year near neutral ENSO.

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

14-15 was hardly a nino and didn’t really fit the traditional standards of one (if it did then DCA would have had a far better season than BOS). the reason it was less of an analog IMO was because it had a warm pool spanning into Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 which really helps with late winter -epo development. just how i look at it, people can disagree here.