2025-2026 ENSO

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, NyWxGuy said:

-NAO rising to positive. -PNA becoming deeper. Meteorology over modelology, it shouldn't take much for us to understand that is opposite of the a good winter pattern. That's about as bad as it gets 

The RNA is fine starting mid month as mentioned by Don. However yes we need the AO to return to negative.

[GaWx]

Warmth won’t last per EWs for last few days, including today’s, as SE goes back down to back and forth averaging NN and NE goes back to cold: these are for 2/23-3/1

 

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Warmth won’t last per EWs for last few days, including today’s, as SE goes back down to back and forth averaging NN and NE goes back to cold: these are for 2/23-3/1

 

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.  

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

That baja ridging is going to be key if we are getting any help with blocking on the atlantic side.  

DT, who has been on the cold and snowy train in the east since November, vehemently disagrees that arctic cold is coming back the last week of this month into early March. He does however, leave the door open for a possible change back to cold around mid-March

“* **US GRAIN WX ALERT ***

MAJOR PATTERN CCHANGE UNDER WAY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

End to the arctic air mass out breaks Feb 15-28

Much wetter pattern for the Plains & Midwest

Although there continues to be considerable talk and speculation about a Polar Vortex disruption occurring in late FEN/ early March it needs to be pointed out that not every PV disruption means an arctic outbreak in the Central and Eastern CONUS.

There seems to be this General obsession with this idea which is based on East Coast winter snowstorm sexual fantasies are not based on science.

I think the idea of a late February pattern flip back to severe cold with additional Arctic air mass outbreaks is extremely unlikely. And that might also be the case for early March.

IMAGE = the latest projections from 3 different models on the MJO. As you can see all three models show a rather strong MJO that moves through phases 3 4 and 5 over the next two weeks. And it is clearly implies that the MJO is headed for Phase 6.

IMAGE = temperature anomalies in FEB when the MJO anomalies are in phases 3 4 and 5. As you can see in Phases 4 and 5, temperatures above normal or much above east of the Mississippi River.

And if we get into Phase 6 in February… well the temperature profile shows an exceptional warmth across the eastern US.

IMAGE precipitation anomalies when the MJO is in Phase 3 4 and 5 in FEB. As you can see it is a much wetter pattern for the Midwest and the East Coast in general.

Given the extremely dry winter having a much wetter pattern as we head towards Spring is essential and very important .

IMAGE = The North America weather regime forecast from Simon Lee over in the UK. This forecast calls for a Pacific Ridge pattern to dominate North America starting February 12/13 and continuing into the middle of March.

This is NOT a good pattern for those wanting a late season cold air outbreak in late February or early March over the eastern US.

It is however an excellent pattern if you are into farming as this kind of pattern will produce either normal or above normal rainfall for the plains the Midwest and the Deep South

finally I am NOT ruling out the idea of a March reversal. Indeed some of the MJO models show it moving back into Phase 7 / 8 in mid-March. The weekly models are also showing a colder pattern across the Eastern conus with the return of high latitude blocking in Greenland and some kind of Ridge trying to reform in western Canada and the Rockies.

but that is a long way away.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

DT, who has been on the cold and snowy train in the east since November, vehemently disagrees that arctic cold is coming back the last week of this month into early March. He does however, leave the door open for a possible change back to cold around mid-March

“* **US GRAIN WX ALERT ***

MAJOR PATTERN CCHANGE UNDER WAY
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

End to the arctic air mass out breaks Feb 15-28

Much wetter pattern for the Plains & Midwest

Although there continues to be considerable talk and speculation about a Polar Vortex disruption occurring in late FEN/ early March it needs to be pointed out that not every PV disruption means an arctic outbreak in the Central and Eastern CONUS.

There seems to be this General obsession with this idea which is based on East Coast winter snowstorm sexual fantasies are not based on science.

I think the idea of a late February pattern flip back to severe cold with additional Arctic air mass outbreaks is extremely unlikely. And that might also be the case for early March.

IMAGE = the latest projections from 3 different models on the MJO. As you can see all three models show a rather strong MJO that moves through phases 3 4 and 5 over the next two weeks. And it is clearly implies that the MJO is headed for Phase 6.

IMAGE = temperature anomalies in FEB when the MJO anomalies are in phases 3 4 and 5. As you can see in Phases 4 and 5, temperatures above normal or much above east of the Mississippi River.

And if we get into Phase 6 in February… well the temperature profile shows an exceptional warmth across the eastern US.

IMAGE precipitation anomalies when the MJO is in Phase 3 4 and 5 in FEB. As you can see it is a much wetter pattern for the Midwest and the East Coast in general.

Given the extremely dry winter having a much wetter pattern as we head towards Spring is essential and very important .

IMAGE = The North America weather regime forecast from Simon Lee over in the UK. This forecast calls for a Pacific Ridge pattern to dominate North America starting February 12/13 and continuing into the middle of March.

This is NOT a good pattern for those wanting a late season cold air outbreak in late February or early March over the eastern US.

It is however an excellent pattern if you are into farming as this kind of pattern will produce either normal or above normal rainfall for the plains the Midwest and the Deep South

finally I am NOT ruling out the idea of a March reversal. Indeed some of the MJO models show it moving back into Phase 7 / 8 in mid-March. The weekly models are also showing a colder pattern across the Eastern conus with the return of high latitude blocking in Greenland and some kind of Ridge trying to reform in western Canada and the Rockies.

but that is a long way away.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

While I believe it could still turn colder to end February as per the ECMWF weeklies, I tend to agree that the risk of a return of severe cold in the East is probably largely over. 

[GaWx]

The period Feb 1-7, 2026 was in MJO phase 8 as per this image:

 

 Using Baltimore again as a proxy for the E US, Feb 1-7 was the coldest La Nina Feb phase 8 on record in terms of both average anomaly and cumulative anomaly. Keep in mind that 

-It averaged 9 BN. The prior coldest was 7 BN and that was just a one day period.

-The cumulative anomaly was 66 BN over the 7 days. The prior largest cumulative Feb phase 8 La Niña anomaly was only 36 BN, which was over a 9 day period in mid Feb of 1999.

  Comparing this to other Feb MJO phases during La Niña:

- This very cold phase 8’s cumulative anomaly of 66 BN is the third largest of all phases with only these two exceeding that:

1. Early Feb of 1996’s phase 3 added up to 84 BN over 7 days

2. Late Feb of 2008’s phase 1 added up to 70 BN over 10 days.

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/9/2026 at 7:18 PM, roardog said:

Yeah. That and to have cities have their 3rd coldest stretch in 152 years is impressive. People keep acting like this happens every winter. 

 

On 2/9/2026 at 7:22 PM, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

Cherry picking cities will do that

LOL cherry picking cities. No, its using the city/metro that i live in and comparing it to the climate period of record. I dont have time to cherry pick a random stat for a random city just because. When the already coldest time of year in your already cold weather city ranks 3rd coldest of 152 years on record...it absolutely is impressive and noteworthy.

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/9/2026 at 9:56 PM, donsutherland1 said:

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. 

For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become.

That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

The position of the Great Lakes - a direct path for cold shots - makes me think its very likely to see similar sustained deep cold periods like the one just passed, though not as frequent as shorter, more intense bouts as have been seen in recent years. Its really crazy to see two years in a row with deep south snow.

Its been an absolutely fantastic winter for deep cold and snow/ice cover. This is two winters in a row the ratio of days with snow on the ground/snow depth to the total accumulated snowfall is greater than usual. Last winter snowfall finished below avg with snowcover around avg. This winter, while snowfall is still above avg to date, it is not as much above avg as is the snowcover. Should future winters continue to warm on avg, the opposite would likely occur (somewhat of a decrease in snowcover, while snowfall itself stats fairly steady).

 

[EastonSN+]

Would have thought blocking would start to show up on the ensembles 

[EastonSN+]

Need this to speed up.

[MJO812]

I doubt any warmups will long in the east due to the return of the negative WPO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/close-call-presidents-day-with-warm-up.html

I favor the warmer February outcome of the GFS suite over the EURO.

Posted this in the new thread, but meant to post in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hoping after a mild week 2 for an improvement to mainly NN in the SE late month into March!

The North Pacific pattern is what is most crucial.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Posted this in the new thread, but meant to post in here.

Nice blog. Gotta agree with you and DT that the remainder of February starting next week and likely into early March is mild. I think there may possibly be a return to colder come mid-March, but at that point, I’d want to be in central and northern New England. Once you get to 3/15, you are fighting climo, sun angle and length of day and it only gets worse from there on out. That would still work for central and northern New England, but south of there, not so much…..minus some highly anomalous, freak snow event. Just to be clear, I’m not (NOT) saying it can’t snow after 3/15 south of central New England, that would be ridiculous, but there certainly are a whole bunch of limiting factors working against snowstorms at that latitude, at that point in time…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Nice blog. Gotta agree with you and DT that the remainder of February starting next week and likely into early March is mild. I think there may possibly be a return to colder come mid-March, but at that point, I’d want to be in central and northern New England. Once you get to 3/15, you are fighting climo, sun angle and length of day and it only gets worse from there on out. That would still work for central and northern New England, but south of there, not so much…..minus some highly anomalous, freak snow event. Just to be clear, I’m not (NOT) saying it can’t snow after 3/15 south of central New England, that would be ridiculous, but there certainly are a whole bunch of limiting factors working against snowstorms at that latitude, at that point in time…..

I'm not convinced it takes that long.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are significantly warmer than the last few for the 3 wks 2/23-3/15 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3/2-3/8 and 3/9-3/15 being AN shouldn't really be a surprise. The MJO is going to be in phase 6 to begin March, which is normally a torch phase for early March.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are significantly warmer than the last few for the 3 wks 2/23-3/15 

 

 

I doubt this since the WPO will become negative again. Take the weeklies with a grain of salt.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I doubt this since the WPO will become negative again. Take the weeklies with a grain of salt.

There are other indexes, stronger correlated than the WPO, that are not favorable at the end of ensemble mean runs, +nao/+epo here:

[A-L-E-K]

On 2/5/2026 at 2:24 PM, A-L-E-K said:

ready 4 spring

[EastonSN+]

Needs to get to 8 faster. 

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There are other indexes, stronger correlated than the WPO, that are not favorable at the end of ensemble mean runs, +nao/+epo here:

IMO this is the worst case scenario. Too warm to snow then as usual we get phase 8 and blocking to give us yet another cold rainy spring. 

[EastonSN+]

Would have thought blocking would have returned with this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies are significantly warmer than the last few for the 3 wks 2/23-3/15 

 

 

Really not very warm in NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Would have thought blocking would have returned with this.

It depends on how well coupled the strat and trop are, which is just about impossible to diagnose at a seasonal level. This is why I missed the late January blocking...I nailed the PV intensification throughout January, but they weren't coupled, so we still had blocking redevelop late month.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Really not very warm in NE.

Agreed. It’s still not warm at all for you as you average NN during this 3 week period on this run. However, that’s a bit warmer than the prior run, which had y’all averaging a little BN.
 Hoping the next few runs reverse cooler from this in the E US.

[donsutherland1]

The latest teleconnection forecasts have turned increasingly toward an AO+ as February moves into its final week.

If these forecasts are accurate, the return of colder weather, albeit not severely cold, following the February thaw that remains likely through February 20 +/- a few days could wind up being fairly short-lived. If so, even if February ends with cooler than normal temperatures as suggested by the ECMWF weeklies, a milder regime could rebuild during the opening week of March. Forecasting skill for the teleconnections is fairly low beyond 10-14 days, so it will probably be another 5-7 days before one can be more confident about the outcome for the first week of March.

Finally, the cooler weather with some opportunities for rainfall that will build into the Southwest by the middle of next week probably won't last more than a week. Warmer temperatures should return to close February.

[TheClimateChanger]

I'm extremely impressed by this start to February, particularly for high temperatures. Unusually large diurnal ranges are keeping the mean temperatures in check to an extent, but max temps have been soaring. With the current forecast, odds look very good for a top 10 warm February nationally, perhaps top 5. Average high temps are well within striking distance of a number two finish (1954's +7.34F over 1991-2020 mean would be a stretch).

 

[TheClimateChanger]

21 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm extremely impressed by this start to February, particularly for high temperatures. Unusually large diurnal ranges are keeping the mean temperatures in check to an extent, but max temps have been soaring. With the current forecast, odds look very good for a top 10 warm February nationally, perhaps top 5. Average high temps are well within striking distance of a number two finish (1954's +7.34F over 1991-2020 mean would be a stretch).

 

For the season as a whole (December & January), NCEI's nClimDiv had us at 6th warmest. Max temps have been running warmer in general for several months, which is a departure from the usual case. For max temps, December & January were 4th warmest for the CONUS. Interestingly, the US Climate Reference Network has this as the warmest December & January (since 2005 & using nClimDiv for 1895-2004), as does the US48 TLT satellite-based anomaly from UAH.

By my calculation, February would need to check in around 5.8F above normal to set a new record warm winter for the CONUS or about 3.7F for second warmest. The latter is certainly plausible. I mean the former is possible as well but would require some bigtime positive anomalies (full-blown Feb. 2017/March 2012 torching). I think max temps have the better odds to finish as warmest on record, not sure we get there in the means.

It looks like a lock for warmest on record for USCRN (all rural, pristine sited stations with better equipment - e.g., redundant temp. sensors) and in the UAH satellite record. Looks like a new max temp record in the official NCEI records is also a lock. Just need to finish around +3.6F for that one, and we're near +5.2F for the first 10 days (PRISM) with that number likely to climb in coming days.