2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

[e pluribus unum]

7 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

You can really see how that California tule fog or whatever they were calling it screwed us out of an even warmer December & January.

Subsidence inversions are a very natural part of the winter climo in the West and it's tough to juggle record warmth in the higher elevations with record warmth in the valleys in December and January. Massive ridges in the West in the mid-winter often lead to colder than average conditions in the valleys. 

The PNW actually had the perfect storm of warmth in December with the jet stream lashing us the entire month and enough warm air advection in the higher elevations to screw them up as well. Down in CA they were far enough removed from the jet for the inversion to hold at the lower elevations. 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big  temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off.

What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter.

It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this. 

1993-94 (and possibly even 1995-96) was the result of the after effects of Pinatubo, our last major volcanic eruption. The cooling effects definitely wore off by the 1997-98 el nino, which was the next big global temperature jump.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If I’m not mistaken @donsutherland1 mentioned just yesterday that once we get to mid-February and beyond, the WPO becomes less important

Yes. That's due to shortening wave lengths. EPO becomes relatively more important.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think you are incorrectly referring to one of my older discussions. My statement was that in order to get back to colder winters prior to the big  temperature rise in 2015-2016 we would need a major volcanic eruption to cool the climate down for 3-7 years before the cooling aerosol effects wear off.

What this means is that it’s going to be a challenge to get a repeat of 2014-2015 in Boston, 2013-2014 in the Great Lakes, 2009-2010 in the Mid-Atlantic, 1995-1996 in the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast, the top 10 coldest winters which we experienced Nationally during the 1970s , and for North America on the whole in 1993-1994 winter.

It doesn’t mean that we can’t still get colder winters especially on a regional to multi regional basis. Just that they will struggle to match the colder rankings we experienced back in the old days. This winter and last winter are prime examples of this. 

I misunderstood, thinking the assertion is volcano is needed for any kind of cold anomoly winter. I feel very fortunate to live in the Great Lakes because our type of climate makes a complete winterless winter impossible. Warmer winters can see some real dynamic snowstorms ala 2022-23.

A winter like the present one, 2025-26, is what I would call a classic textbook example of a harsh winter. Below avg temps, above avg snowfall and above avg snowcover. No standout storms but solid deep winter since late November with just 2 brief breaks. Today is the 21st day in a row snow has fallen. 

I dont ever really ever expect another 2013-14.

Took this Pic this evening when dropping something off at the library. 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

Who cares when there's this too.

https://x.com/JustinWeather/status/2018864755256250868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2018864755256250868|twgr^afdbcb3bf1f7882daea6c56237bcb5b4801b0525|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2018864755256250868

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Who cares when there's this too.

https://x.com/JustinWeather/status/2018864755256250868?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^2018864755256250868|twgr^afdbcb3bf1f7882daea6c56237bcb5b4801b0525|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2018864755256250868

 

Just posted this in the MA sub...that is absolutely crazy

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

If you're looking at it from where you live, I guess it's not great but overall it quickly brings back the -WPO so they'll be a lot of arctic air pressing into the ridge so I would say it actually looks pretty wintry for the country especially as you go north and west. I know that's not good for your area though.

 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

You’re right that I was thinking more from a E US and moreso from a SE US perspective and should have stated that. My bad. I just edited the post. See if you agree more with the new wording.

 For Michigan and all of the E US, it looks mild through ~Feb 20th. After that, when model skill is very low, it’s much more up in the air.

Its been such a steady cold winter locally, we forget that in DJF, warm anamolies are not a nail in the coffin here. In fact. If we can avoid actual torching and get an active pattern it can actually produce very well, but its of course a gamble. This would be the first time this cold season wed be in a more gambling type pattern. Its been solid cold and winter threats briefly interrupted by 2 well advertised torches. 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just posted this in the MA sub...that is absolutely crazy

It brings some reality to those who act as if, if not expect, the world is going to end. Just ridges and troughs waxing and waning this year on the Conus.

[raindancewx]

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions.

January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March?

Top 20 analogs

Following Feb 500mb

Following Feb Air Temp

Following March Air Temp

The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. 

Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I misunderstood, thinking the assertion is volcano is needed for any kind of cold anomoly winter. I feel very fortunate to live in the Great Lakes because our type of climate makes a complete winterless winter impossible. Warmer winters can see some real dynamic snowstorms ala 2022-23.

A winter like the present one, 2025-26, is what I would call a classic textbook example of a harsh winter. Below avg temps, above avg snowfall and above avg snowcover. No standout storms but solid deep winter since late November with just 2 brief breaks. Today is the 21st day in a row snow has fallen. 

I dont ever really ever expect another 2013-14.

Took this Pic this evening when dropping something off at the library. 

The beauty of living the Great Lakes is that even having the warmest winter on record in 23-24, Marquette was able to get 126.4” of snowfall. Now I realize that is a very low snowfall outcome for the area. But it’s still way ahead of the snowiest seasons in my area. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March?

Top 20 analogs

Following Feb 500mb

Following Feb Air Temp

Following March Air Temp

The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. 

Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

Same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Outside of the RONI which is essentially a global warming signal in the Tropics, the winter behaviorally is more like a cold neutral with a -PDO. SSTs, SOI, subsurface and actual surface conditions are Neutral. You have high subtropical jet energy, less subtropical ridging, different MJO progression, a warm subsurface all winter compared to Nina conditions.

January wasn't really that different late month from 2014. It was actually much colder in the past two weeks if anything, which is why I tried not to moderate it too much. I'm not like the Ray guy who had the MIdwest +5 or whatever for January. I used 2014 because I thought it would be really fucking cold in January

Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right?

Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors:

1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up.

2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season.

3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well.

I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall.

Better luck in your future endeavors-

[EastonSN+]

I know it's the CFS however after a consolidation the PV takes the hit and the result below. Hopefully this happens a week sooner.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Educational mistake. Here is my composite without the two Pacific trough analog seasons. Leaving 2014 out was also a decision influenced by CC bc it was so cold...it's clear I have to reign that back a bit after neglecting it for many years. I don't have all of the answers to the test.....always learning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part.

 

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, at least you can finally rest easy knowing that I actually do not plagiarize your work, right?

Fair critique in a vacuum, but I have my doubts whether it was well intended judging from both your tone and history on here. As someone who also has a great deal of experience making seasonal forecasts, I'm sure you understand that it can be tough to nail the timing and precise placement of the anomalies in a composite map. This was largely due to three factors:

1) The -NAO during the latter half of January was unexpected, and it caused the cold to focus east of where I had it. I touched on this in my write up.

2) I have not addressed these last two as of yet because I was saving it for the post season analysis...but I went more conservative than my forecast narrative would imply due to an overcompensation to account for CC. Two things were clear to anyone that took the time to actually read my work. I was expecting a very cold +TNH pattern to ensue after mid January, and I used 1951-2010 climo maps to forecast 1991-2020 anomalies. I'm testing some things out to try to better account for CC, but I think it's abundantly clear that I had a very firm grasp on the pattern this season.

3) I included the 2002 and 2006 analogs to reflect the mid month Pacific Trough regime that would serve as the precursor pattern to the subsequent +TNH, but that was clearly a mistake that influenced the forecast composite too heavily, despite having matched that pattern very well.

I'm not sure why you are so insecure despite possessing such a wealth of knowledge with regard to long range forecasting. I'm sure your failed business venture concerning gambling on the weather didn't help, buy my advice is to try to remain mindful of the perils of making others feel small as opposed to focusing more on how to make yourself feel tall.

Better luck in your future endeavors-

Ray,

Don't let the unnecessary jab affect you.  Your work, effort to continually learn and improve, and you are highly respected here. 

People who are insecure often try to shield themselves from their own shortcomings by seizing on and exaggerating the real or perceived flaws, mistakes, and missteps of others. It is a deeply counterproductive approach, especially when it comes to people skills. Success in almost any environment depends on strong interpersonal abilities. Leaders and entrepreneurs succeed, because they can effectively appeal to people in promoting their vision, ideas, products, and services. Without good interpersonal skills, even considerable talent (and he certainly has it) is unlikely to be fully realized or effectively leveraged.

[LakePaste25]

Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Need to get this area to move East for less of a -PNA IMO. Wavelengths are too short in Feb for convection to be hugging this area.

Not gonna happen IMO.

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not gonna happen IMO.

Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Probably not in Feb, but I could see it happening sometime in March. 

Yea, better chance in March, but it's probably decidedly RNA from here on out IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Definitely does down as a weak La Nina in my book....meager, sure....but MEI was well withing La Nina territory and there wasn't much of a STJ presence in the US. I guess 1995-1996 must have been an El Nino, right? MJO still avoided phase 8 for the most part.

 

Apparently the CPC agrees, considering they are now using RONI as the official measure of ENSO intensity.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data