2025-2026 ENSO

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 In the Arctic (>80N), 1/2026 comes in very slightly colder than 1/1977:

 

2026:

 

1977:

 

I guess I didn’t actually expect that. The blocking was probably stronger in 1977 though. You can also see how the temperature in the Arctic dropped in February at the same time it warmed up significantly down here. I swear some people act like there’s palm trees growing up there today. lol

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, snowfan789 said:

Significant portions of the West are record warm and snowless to date for this winter season. It is not unreasonable to describe that as a bigger weather and perhaps climate story than a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy winter in some parts of the approximately eastern third of the country only that is for the most part not record breaking. If you only care about the weather in your own backyard, cool. But if you’re genuinely interested in the weather and climate, then the superlative status of the winter in much of the West presumably would be something you’d deem worthy of attention. It is a major weather-related issue at the present with real and lasting repercussions for the environment and economy in a large portion of the country.

 

9 hours ago, e pluribus unum said:

That's because some of the warmth in the West this season is all time record level and objectively more statistically significant. The cold in the Eastern U.S. this season really isn't even close to unprecedented. That's the idea, that the warm anomalies in a warming world are simply going to outweigh the downstream/upstream cold anomalies. 

The West has also had some decent cold winter stretches in the last decade (2016-17, February 2019, 2022-23) but nothing as historically impressive as the warmth that's happened this season thus far out here. And in those stretches the East was generally seeing historic levels of winter warmth that outweighed it. 

You're both missing the point that @roardog and I are making, though its not surprising as you dont seem to be longterm regular posters in this and previous years enso threads.

This forum is EXTREMELY east based. So much so that roardog and I practically feel on the outskirts being in eastern Michigan. The east had been going through a stretch of mild to warm winters, with the core of the persistent warmest anomalies being the east coast. A lot of nonsense was being thrown about the inability for the east to get another cold winter, as if the 2010s were a generation ago, not a decade ago. Now this will be the 2nd colder than avg winter in a row for the eastern third of the US, with this year the coldest so far since 2014 or 2011.

Nowhere did I say the cold was unprecedented, nor did I say that the west's snow drought isn't a major deal. Dig up some old threads from 2017 or 2023 when the east was mild, see if the heavy snow/cold in the west got a single mention. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I dont think alot of people forecasted a very cold winter in the east.  I think the big disruption to the PV in late November changed the whole winter pattern .

They didnt. I had a good feeling about the winter here, but i certainly didnt think it would be as cold as it is. Its the perfect combo of above avg snowfall, above avg snowcover, and below avg temps in Michigan. 

[NyWxGuy]

58 minutes ago, PositiveEPOEnjoyer said:

This times a million. It takes a miracle, extremely early season SSW just to get a classically cold/snowy winter in the east now, it's pretty sad honestly.

As climate change continues to warm the world, we'll need extreme patterns more often to get what used to be a normal winter. The 2020s have been abysmal for snow and cold (with a few exceptions for cold, including last winter) and its becoming harder and harder to chalk it up to anything other than climate change is taking away most cold and snow. The warmth continues to outpace, and when we have something remotely below normal in the way of temps, it feels brutal. 

[michsnowfreak]

Here come the low post troll accounts 

[EastonSN+]

Was not expecting to see this steep spike in the AO!

Perhaps we go positive for a while until the SSWE kicks in in March?

[snowfan789]

47 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

You're both missing the point that @roardog and I are making, though its not surprising as you dont seem to be longterm regular posters in this and previous years enso threads.

This forum is EXTREMELY east based. So much so that roardog and I practically feel on the outskirts being in eastern Michigan. The east had been going through a stretch of mild to warm winters, with the core of the persistent warmest anomalies being the east coast. A lot of nonsense was being thrown about the inability for the east to get another cold winter, as if the 2010s were a generation ago, not a decade ago. Now this will be the 2nd colder than avg winter in a row for the eastern third of the US, with this year the coldest so far since 2014 or 2011.

Nowhere did I say the cold was unprecedented, nor did I say that the west's snow drought isn't a major deal. Dig up some old threads from 2017 or 2023 when the east was mild, see if the heavy snow/cold in the west got a single mention. 

I’ve been a regular reader of this blog and its predecessors for about 20 years. I seldom post because, in general, I don’t think I have the expertise to meaningfully contribute. I’ve started occasionally posting recently because I think it is important to note the truly exceptional warmth and lack of snow in significant parts of the West this season, where longstanding records are absolutely being smashed. It is a big deal and should be part of the dialogue alongside the discussion about a kind of chilly and snowy season in parts of the East (only) that’s not historically noteworthy. Just my opinion though.

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was not expecting to see this steep spike in the AO!

Perhaps we go positive for a while until the SSWE kicks in in March?

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

You think it will take that long for the effects of the SSWE to be realized?

[snowman19]

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

Judah Cohen thinks one more SPV stretch this week then a Canadian warming

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, snowfan789 said:

I’ve been a regular reader of this blog and its predecessors for about 20 years. I seldom post because, in general, I don’t think I have the expertise to meaningfully contribute. I’ve started occasionally posting recently because I think it is important to note the truly exceptional warmth and lack of snow in significant parts of the West this season, where longstanding records are absolutely being smashed. It is a big deal and should be part of the dialogue alongside the discussion about a kind of chilly and snowy season in parts of the East (only) that’s not historically noteworthy. Just my opinion though.

You are always welcome to post. In fact its encouraged to get more firsthand accounts from other areas of the country. The climate in general is VERY different out West (my brother lived in Denver for 2 years, he knows firsthand). Hell its very different in the Great Lakes vs New England even though the overall winters are comparable. 

To be more blunt, some ridiculous "predictions" were made by a few about the inability to get cold winters in the east, and we now have 2 winters in a row colder than average. There is a lot of bias from some that clouds their otherwise reasonable judgment at times. 

This winter here is cold and snowy. The lake ice is thick. Wind chills are below zero daily. Its not historically noteworthy, but its a harsh winter. Most of us weather enthusiasts #1 priority is our own backyards. When we have a mild winter and you a cold one, i dont expect you to feel bad, and you are always welcome to post your obs/data/pics. Just how it works when we all share a hobby but live in different regions 

[NyWxGuy]

57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think we could epic torch like 2/22 or so into early March then have a secondary interesting stretch.  I am not overly thrilled with anything in the near future.  It probably gets pretty warm 9th-13th or so, especially areas SW of SNE.  Then I do think we get a window there of maybe 8-10 days but feel it could go real ugly for a bit after that.  Hopefully for places like the MA/SE/TN Valley it does not result in too much blooming because Nina-Nino transitioning March years long have a history of these active stretches in March after mild periods

Yeah that -NAO has been the source of our cold since December even while the western half of US was roasting in December and January. If the -NAO goes positive, while we'll still have some entrenched cold, it could get pretty warm at the end of the month. Even with a SSW, there's no certainty that it'll lead to a March 2018 scenario. Could easily lead to a March 2023 scenario which was not as frutiful for most of us 

[e pluribus unum]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

You're both missing the point that @roardog and I are making, though its not surprising as you dont seem to be longterm regular posters in this and previous years enso threads.

This forum is EXTREMELY east based. So much so that roardog and I practically feel on the outskirts being in eastern Michigan. The east had been going through a stretch of mild to warm winters, with the core of the persistent warmest anomalies being the east coast. A lot of nonsense was being thrown about the inability for the east to get another cold winter, as if the 2010s were a generation ago, not a decade ago. Now this will be the 2nd colder than avg winter in a row for the eastern third of the US, with this year the coldest so far since 2014 or 2011.

Nowhere did I say the cold was unprecedented, nor did I say that the west's snow drought isn't a major deal. Dig up some old threads from 2017 or 2023 when the east was mild, see if the heavy snow/cold in the west got a single mention. 

I don't think any reasonable person is going to argue that cold anomalies aren't possible moving forward. Obviously that's an irrational take. And I don't post often but I've had an account on here for over a decade. 

I think you're missing the initial point which was that what we've seen this winter across North America still aligns quite well with what you'd expect to see in a warming world.