2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

No evidence to back this up

[bncho]

On 11/30/2025 at 8:46 AM, MJO812 said:

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. 

so much for that prediction lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

so much for that prediction lol

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

[MJO812]

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

Well, in that case...phew.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

If you blindly look at guidance without any ability to process the events of the past several years, or think critically, sure.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I meant unexpected with regard to the main model MJO projections we follow. None of them on any day’s run had it going into 6 though it likely will leave quickly.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

[GaWx]

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day):

@Stormchaserchuck1

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time in late Dec and early Jan. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates there.

 Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

 But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

For 1/19-25:

N America H5

Global H5:

N America 2m temps: ahhhh with much colder than prior maps!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day):

@Stormchaserchuck1

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144. Maybe it's a persistency thought. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.

[LakePaste25]

the warm pattern is coming

As expected, the cold pattern that was in place this month is unlikely to finish with any significant I-95 snowstorms (there will be a light/moderate event this weekend). The H5 pattern on the ensemble mean left little room for little amplification, and the EPS snow mean was not supportive. It’s always important to lean into the pattern before hyping big snowstorms with every cold pattern.  

 

[brooklynwx99]

lol Webb going on his weenie crusade when he hypes just as much as literally everyone else on that platform

[bncho]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That was supposed to happen though.

saying that a 30 day MJO 8 is supposed to happen is like saying that the 384hr GFS solution is going to happen lol

[JACKASS]

@stormtracker

Showing results for 'phase 8' in content posted by MJO812. - American Weather

Remind us all again why he's only barred from posting in the MA forum.

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@stormtracker

Showing results for 'phase 8' in content posted by MJO812. - American Weather

Remind us all again why he's only barred from posting in the MA forum.

Loser mentality 

What is wrong about what I posted ?

[GaWx]

 Check this out. The official Australian RMM MJO for Dec 9th has already been released: after the Dec 3-7 phase 8 went surprisingly (to me) to Dec 8th’s very weak phase 6, Dec 9th comes in at very weak phase 5! Holy smokes! I still think it may retreat back to phase 8 later, but that remains to be seen:

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Check this out. The official Australian RMM MJO for Dec 9th has already been released: after Dec 8th’s very weak phase 6, Dec 9th comes in at very weak phase 5! Holy smokes! I still think it may retreat back to phase 8 later, but that remains to be seen:

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

Indeed, in Dec it is for the E US close to the worst, if not THE worst along with phase 6 as the image below shows. However, this is only a VERY weak phase 5 (not too far from the center of the circle) and thus isn’t nearly as bad on average as phase 5 is outside of the circle (it’s probably close to neutral):

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check this out. The official Australian RMM MJO for Dec 9th has already been released: after the Dec 3-7 phase 8 went surprisingly (to me) to Dec 8th’s very weak phase 6, Dec 9th comes in at very weak phase 5! Holy smokes! I still think it may retreat back to phase 8 later, but that remains to be seen:

Way different than these plots

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Way different than these plots

Anthony,

 Thanks. Indeed, I realize that. The difference is that the one I posted is the official RMM that will go into the records together with all since 6/1/1974, the others that are already in the record book for folks like me to analyze. The ones you posted won’t. I’m not sure why they differ, but I prefer the Australian RMM. The ones you posted will be later essentially be forgotten by history.

[leo2000]

Risky business to bet on the "coast to coast" ridge holding firm at the margins, as I've been warning

@weathertrader

(I'm hyping cold right now) Polar vortex anchored over Hudson Bay just needs a subtle nudge and it dumps out e.g. Day 12 (AI-GFS)

 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time in late Dec and early Jan. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates there.

 Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

 But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

For 1/19-25:

N America H5

Global H5:

N America 2m temps: ahhhh with much colder than prior maps!

This fits my progression for latter December into mid January perfectly...my only issue is I feel that -NAO/-AO in mid January will get pushed back, as I think that will be +TNH post reflection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

NOV 26 colder started in phase 6 headed into phase 7 & then into phase 8 through DEC 6. Here is the pattern

NOV26-DEC 8

It appears the MJO did indeed influence the pattern....pretty strongly.  

Matches up with my early season MC mismatch analogs from my outlook well. I am very pleased so far...only nitpick is that I though it would be less -WPO and more -EPO.

December 2017-January 2018:

December 2024-January 2025:

 

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

 

Phase 5 is a blowtorch until you get to May. 

[donsutherland1]

It should be abundantly clear now that the plausible scenario of a warmup within a few days of December 20 has become the baseline scenario. The weakening WPO- regime coupled with unfavorable teleconnections will allow for most of the CONUS to see temperatures move above normal. The ongoing warmth will continue in the West, as well. It is also increasingly clear that the PNA will wind up predominantly negative this month. Most of Canada should remain cold beyond December 20, however eastern Canada, including Ontario and Quebec could begin to warm up several days later.

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Phase 5 is a blowtorch until you get to May. 

MJO is very weak and should have negligible effects

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch

Its not going to be a blowtorch. Too much cold air to the north. 

[Terpeast]

One of the 4 features I’ve been talking about, the negative WPO, is starting to fade or weaken.

I’m starting to think that with the extended -PNA through the rest of this month, the warmth is going to last past the new year. 

We still haw canada cold, mjo projected to return to into 7/8, and stratosphere activity (with a lag). With these still in the picture, cold may return around the second week of January. The PNA may also flip positive for the majority of next month as well.