2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

No evidence to back this up

[bncho]

On 11/30/2025 at 8:46 AM, MJO812 said:

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. 

so much for that prediction lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

so much for that prediction lol

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

[MJO812]

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

Well, in that case...phew.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

If you blindly look at guidance without any ability to process the events of the past several years, or think critically, sure.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I meant unexpected with regard to the main model MJO projections we follow. None of them on any day’s run had it going into 6 though it likely will leave quickly.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.

[GaWx]

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day):

@Stormchaserchuck1

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time in late Dec and early Jan. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates there.

 Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

 But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

For 1/19-25:

N America H5

Global H5:

N America 2m temps: ahhhh with much colder than prior maps!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day):

@Stormchaserchuck1

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144. Maybe it's a persistency thought. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144

I think NG prices move mostly on 2-3 week outlooks, but have no idea past 3 weeks. If the 4th week is going to be cold, and that 4th week rolls forward into week 3, NG prices will jump just the same.