2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Sorry guys, but the MJO isn't going back to phase 8. Get ready to learn phase 5.

No evidence to back this up

[bncho]

On 11/30/2025 at 8:46 AM, MJO812 said:

Looks like we will be in phase 8 all December. 

so much for that prediction lol

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

so much for that prediction lol

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

[MJO812]

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

Well, in that case...phew.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

If you blindly look at guidance without any ability to process the events of the past several years, or think critically, sure.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I meant unexpected with regard to the main model MJO projections we follow. None of them on any day’s run had it going into 6 though it likely will leave quickly.

The rmm plots only give us part of the picture. I tend to use rmm plots in conjunction with hollmover plots to see where the forcing is the strongest and most dominant. For example, if forcing is strong at 8, but also weak at 5/6, the rmm plot might show weak amplitude in 7/8.