2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

SON is -.85

 

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

That's fair. I think the tri-monthly is around -0.9 eyeballing it. 

Close..

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You just love being wrong.  Its amazing. 

dont even stress it. bro doesnt have the computational output to look at an ensemble rather an op model

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies for the 4 weeks Dec 22nd through Jan 18th continue to look bad (mild) especially in the SE and MidAtlantic. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The hope is that they’re just pain wrong. But that’s just a hope:

12/22-28:

12/29-1/4:

1/5-11

1/12-18:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The MEI finally updated. Here are the values for the past several months:

MJ 2025: -1.2

JJ 2025: -1.2

JA 2025: -0.9

AS 2025: -1.1

SO 2025: -1.2

ON 2025: -1.1

[Krs4Lfe]

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst 

I will be saving this post

[stadiumwave]

25 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst 

 

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN. 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst 

Yup I believe i pointed out 22-23 was a great analog

[Krs4Lfe]

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Yup I believe i pointed out 22-23 was a great analog

Yeah once we ended up getting 0” that month after a great pattern, and January was warm and a shutout; I knew we were in for one of the least snow winters ever. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah once we ended up getting 0” that month after a great pattern, and January was warm and a shutout; I knew we were in for one of the least snow winters ever. 

Thats how nina decembers go. Getting 0" is a la nina december is a great way to ensure getting a historically least snowy winter. This winter could be over by about the 15th if we dont have anything credible to track unfortunately

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Thats how nina decembers go. Getting 0" is a la nina december is a great way to ensure getting a historically least snowy winter. This winter could be over by about the 15th if we dont have anything credible to track unfortunately

Why do you keep doing this to yourself? 

[bncho]

 

10 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Thats how nina decembers go. Getting 0" is a la nina december is a great way to ensure getting a historically least snowy winter. This winter could be over by about the 15th if we dont have anything credible to track unfortunately

It's only December 9th and you're calling winter over already? lmao

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Agree on the end of month, but disagree on JAN. The best analogs have JAN as the coldest month. So, I think based on the law of averages, we have a decent shot of seeing at least a period of winter in JAN. 

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

There are other factors like the weakening La nina , MJO , etc.

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

Sounds like a bit of gambler's fallacy also. 

[Krs4Lfe]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

This only works if December torches, like in 2015, 2021, or 2023.

A cold December, like this one, makes it more likely, based on the law of averages, a torch will happen in January. The period of winter might already be happening.

I think it would be a lot better if we saw *something* here this month. Ideally, if NYC saw 4”+ we would Be in ok shape because 4” is the magic number. That being said, lots of signs for a warm up after rhe 20th