2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As per @GaWx research, 1983 did not have any stratospheric warmings in November or December. Furthermore, 1983 was a volcanic winter with a volcanic stratosphere; courtesy of a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before in 1982. It was also a +QBO winter and a had a strongly +PDO 

 

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter. 

 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly. 

I mean, this highlights a problem you bring up all the time about people like snowman spreading their agenda, because here you do a similar thing. Whenever the weeklies show something good you're like "it'll be cold" but whenever the weeklies trend bad you cover it up as shown above.

[stadiumwave]

40 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible. 

 

You are about as objective as a politician answering questions during a press conference. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Unless this data is wrong, then you are incorrect. 1983-84 winter was a -QBO winter. 

 

Then I stand corrected on that part of my post. I thought December, 83 was +QBO, my bad on that. But the other aspects I mentioned are definitely correct 

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp changes vs yesterday aren’t good for the E US overall if you prefer cold:

Dec 1-7: warmer SE to Mid-Atlantic due to even stronger SE ridge:

 

Dec 8-14: ~unchanged

 

Dec 15-21: warmer SE/very slightly warmer NE

 

Dec 22-28: slightly warmer Mid-Atlantic/very slightly warmer SE:

 

Dec 29-Jan 4: warmer NE

December is trending in the wrong direction which is very concerning for an La Niña winter and a big SSWE in November

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies update on the SPV compared to last run keeps the reversal (or near reversal) but it’s a fair bit stronger Dec-early Jan. Keep in mind that the prior two runs were already significantly stronger for that period:

Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run:

 

EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11

 

If Simon Lee is correct about 96-97 being a stratospheric analog, then a strengthening SPV into January would fit

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

December is trending in the wrong direction which is very concerning for an La Niña winter and a big SSWE in November

What are you talking about ? This forum is getting ridiculous. 

December is below normal on the weeklies.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, bncho said:

I mean, this highlights a problem you bring up all the time about people like snowman spreading their agenda, because here you do a similar thing. Whenever the weeklies show something good you're like "it'll be cold" but whenever the weeklies trend bad you cover it up as shown above.

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

[stadiumwave]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

 

You have the greatest hits of subjective posters (3 of them) feeding the general pessimism from the others. I mean I get it...typical year on weather forums, lol. 

[dmillz25]

The pattern hasn’t even occurred yet and ppl are yelling declaratives 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But its not showing warmth but yet the same people think winter is already over or its going to be warm.  No signals at all of warmth for maybe a few days ahead.

I understand what you're trying to get at, and I agree with you--December isn't looking warm at all, especially for those north of Baltimore. I have no idea where some of those people get that idea from. However, I think it's important to take responsibility, as I thought you had tried to cover up warm trends on the weeklies. Obviously we have our different perspectives as to what happens,  but I was just commenting on what I noticed. 

Winter isn't over at all, because we're still in November, and we have no idea what the end result will be. Nothing is set in stone. So here's to a snowy winter!