2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

No backpedaling here

P8

 

[MJO812]

Further south dip

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies are great for December. They kill the SE ridge.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Further south dip

 

This shows that the Euro is now leaning toward that later period for the actual reversal (~11/28 instead of 11/25). Add in a several week lag and a potential of a phase 8 MJO followed hopefully by 1-2 and we’d have a realistic chance for a several week long period of cold domination in the E US starting as early as near mid-Dec. Prior to this potential, there’d also likely be a mild dominated next 30 days, which shouldn’t be ignored.

[donsutherland1]

In conjunction with its annual Holiday train show, the New York Botanical Garden is running a feature called "the Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail." Some of these characters could well have been taken from this thread.

The Southeast Ridge

Waiting for Winter

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In conjunction with its annual Holiday train show, the New York Botanical Garden is running a feature called "the Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail." Some of these characters could well have been taken from this thread.

The Southeast Ridge

Waiting for Winter

 

 

 

Been a Iong time since I've been to a great train show. I have a bunch of trains from my youth in my closet to this day in fact. Can't get myself to throw them out or otherwise part with them. Plus, a few are worth a couple of bucks...more evidence of one's age. 

[GaWx]

1. AAM is now dropping back from neutral and is forecasted to be in a solid -AAM (solid Ninaish) through the next 30 days per this CFS ens run:

 

2. WCS daily PDO has risen steeply the last 6 days and is up to -0.83, the highest daily since May:

[SnowGoose69]

One notable thing today is a -NAO, albeit a weak one showing up at the end of all ensemble runs.  It makes a difference for sure, even if its just -1 if its far enough west as far as flattening the SE ridge component 

[MJO812]

[leo2000]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The best you can ask for really its going to happen for sure now.