2025-2026 ENSO

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Last winter the GEFS tended for the most part to be too strong though.  It had done much better across 22-23 23-24 but was definitely overdone last winter.

[snowman19]

I have no doubt that the MJO gets into phase 6. My question is, what happens when it gets into phase 7? As we have seen time and time again over the years, the models inaccurately project it barreling right through phase 7, 8 and 1 with amplitude only to be have it die in phase 7. Definitely something to watch going forward later on in November @bluewave 

[EasternLI]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

As is often the case, EPS is correcting stronger as we get closer:

10/23 EPS had weak 10/27+:

 

10/29 EPS shows that 10/23 EPS verified too weak 10/25-9, is less weak (to the right) 10/30-11/6 than 10/23 run, and then heads into moderate 11/9-12 (will likely later correct stronger 11/9-12+ as in toward today’s GEFS, which is below this):

10/29 GEFS is stronger than 10/29 EPS for 11/1-12 (I expect EPS to correct toward this later):

Yeah I agree it will likely trend that way too in this instance. Gefs guidance can overdo it sometimes too though. So I've been kinda focused on euro guidance to see if it would trend more amplified. And it has been which is good to see. Yesterday's weeklies were another good step too. Avoiding the circle completely that run with some amplified members too. 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

Since my last post on E US temperatures on the Euro Weeklies two days ago, they’ve warmed up significantly in just about all of the weeks. Not only is Nov 3-9 not nearly as chilly, but also Nov 10-30 has warmed from mainly NN to pretty solid AN.

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/cae/november2014climatesummary.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT FRI DEC 5 2014

...NOVEMBER 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY...

...EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SOME PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
1ST...
...2ND COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...
...11TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...17TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA...
...EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES WITH A WEAK EL NINO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...


THE THEME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS COLD AND WET...EVEN WHITE.
THE MONTH STARTED OFF IN A BIG WAY WITH EARLIEST AND LARGEST SNOW
EVENT ON RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT...THE EARLIEST
SNOWFALL RECORDED IN COLUMBIA OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WAS
SMALL...AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. MORE
ABOUT THIS EVENT IS BELOW IN THE NOVEMBER EVENTS SECTION.

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THIS PRODUCED RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MONTH AND AT TIMES A STORM TRACK BRINGING
WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE Gulf of America AND TRACKING THEM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
WARM AND DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA REGIONAL BUSH FIELD WAS 49.2
DEGREES OR 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.2 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 50.5 DEGREES OR 4.3
DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.8 DEGREES.

EVENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2014:

NOVEMBER 1ST...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY THE 1ST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...YET TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AT THE ONSET WERE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...THE INTENSE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRED FROM THE UPSTATE AREA THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA. THE SNOW CAME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOT UNCOMMON. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE MOST SNOW WERE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY INTO SALUDA
COUNTY...EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTREME NW AIKEN COUNTY. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY GA...MCCORMICK
COUNTY SC...THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA...BARNWELL COUNTY SC...BAMBERG
COUNTY SC...ORANGEBURG COUNTY SC AND EVEN DORCHESTER COUNTY SC. MANY
AREAS REPORTED TREES DOWN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND MANY TREES
STILL HOLDING MANY OF THEIR LEAVES.

IN LEXINGTON COUNTY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERT WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES FELL. THE HEAVY SNOW BROUGHT DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...EVEN CLOSING A PORTION OF I-26.

IN SALUDA COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 40 TO 50 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

IN NEWBERRY COUNTY...AIKEN COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 1 INCH IN PLACES.


HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS:

SC-LX-93 GILBERT 1.0 SE.............4.3 INCHES
SC-LX-22 LEXINGTON 5.9 SW...........4.2 INCHES
SC-LX-39 GILBERT 1.2 SSW............3.5 INCHES
SC-LX-69 LEXINGTON 3.0 WSW..........3.0 INCHES
SC-LX-26 LEXINGTON 3.4 SSE..........1.5 INCHES
SC-LX-43 LEXINGTON 1.2 SSW..........1.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OUR NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS:

BATESBURG (BATS1)...................3.5 INCHES
PELION 4 NW (PLNS1).................3.0 INCHES
CEDAR CREEK (BLYS1).................1.0 INCHES
JOHNSTON 4 SW (JOHS1)...............0.8 INCHES
NEWBERRY (NWYS1)....................0.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA EM/PUBLIC/SOCIAL MEDIA:

GILBERT.............................6.0 INCHES
RED BANK............................4.5 INCHES
I-26 MILEMARKER 47..................4.5 INCHES
SUMMIT..............................4.0 INCHES
SALUDA..............................2.0 INCHES
PELION..............................2.0 INCHES
LEXINGTON...........................1-2 INCHES

...HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SNOW INFORMATION FOR COLUMBIA...
PRIOR TO THIS EVENT THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR COLUMBIA WAS
A TRACE OF SNOW THAT FELL ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. THE RECORD SNOWFALL
FOR NOVEMBER OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 28TH, 1912 WHEN 1 INCH OF
SNOW WAS OBSERVED.



NOVEMBER 19TH...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCED THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. MANY
LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE TEENS.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES:

8 E FORT JACKSON...................14 DEGREES
2 ESE SALUDA.......................14 DEGREES
CEDAR CREEK NWS COOP (BLYS1).......14 DEGREES
8 SE NEW ELLENTON..................14 DEGREES
LANDFILL (RCWINDS).................14 DEGREES
BEAR CREEK (RCWINDS)...............14 DEGREES
GADSDEN (RCWINDS)..................14 DEGREES
1 NW BLYTHEWOOD....................15 DEGREES
1 SSE WAYNESBORO GA................15 DEGREES
3 SSE RIDGEWAY.....................15 DEGREES
4 NW PELION NWS COOP (PLNS1).......15 DEGREES
2 E CANE SAVANNAH..................15 DEGREES
9 WNW JEFFERSON....................15 DEGREES
EASTOVER (RCWINDS).................15 DEGREES

 

 

[Krs4Lfe]

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo. 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

 

 Thanks, Chris.

 One thing I noticed though is that Oct of 2025 is coming in mainly NN for the E 1/4 of the US overall, which is cooler than Octobers 2015-24 except 2022 with the super strong El Niño 2015 (so not an analog) similar fwiw.

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo. 

Slow start to winter ? Signs are pointing to the opposite. 

Great Snow cover to our north 

Weak PV

MjO moving along 

Weak La Nina

November looks warm but that should change for December . December looks to be a very wintry month ( right now )

 

[Krs4Lfe]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Slow start to winter ? Signs are pointing to the opposite. 

Great Snow cover to our north 

Weak PV

MjO moving along 

Weak La Nina

November looks warm but that should change for December . December looks to be a very wintry month ( right now )

 

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there. 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

There's almost no snow cover in Canada right now. Blowtorch fall they're having up there. 

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

[snowman19]

Just eyeballing the SSTs in the IO, it would not surprise me if the IOD goes even more deeply negative on the next weekly update….the western IO is still cooling rapidly, so extremely likely that another record negative number (since 2000) is on the way for next week….. @GaWx

[Krs4Lfe]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada 

[Krs4Lfe]

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Once we get some buildup of snow cover and less of a Pac extension, then we can get some colder and wintry weather across CONUS. Until then, I'd expect average to above average temps for most of CONUS. 

Let the cold air be bottled up over there until December.

[snowman19]

 1. Since my last post on E US temperatures on the Euro Weeklies two days ago, they’ve warmed up significantly in just about all of the weeks. Not only is Nov 3-9 not nearly as chilly, but also Nov 10-30 has warmed from mainly NN to pretty solid AN. So, it looks like we may not get the coldest 11/27-11/9 since 2012 after all. [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]will be happy 
2. Despite that, the forecast for the SPV remains about as weak as it looked yesterday and with more members with a very early major SSW (~22-23%). IF that unlikely event were to occur then, that may help lead to a cold 2nd half of Dec. So, snowman may not be crazy about this 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

The strengthening over the next 2 weeks from the current weak SPV has been shown for awhile. It’s the weakening afterward that I’ve been focusing on. Will todays run be similar? Stay tuned!

[BlizzardWx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The strengthening over the next 2 weeks from the current weak SPV has been shown for awhile. It’s the weakening afterward that I’ve been focusing on. Will todays run be similar? Stay tuned!

I remember last year the mid level PV was often partly to mostly uncoupled from the lower level PV, or maybe it was just much weaker than the mid level vortex. Am I remembering that right? I wonder if there are any hints of that happening again. 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/cae/november2014climatesummary.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT FRI DEC 5 2014

...NOVEMBER 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY...

...EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SOME PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
1ST...
...2ND COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...
...11TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...17TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA...
...EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES WITH A WEAK EL NINO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...


THE THEME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS COLD AND WET...EVEN WHITE.
THE MONTH STARTED OFF IN A BIG WAY WITH EARLIEST AND LARGEST SNOW
EVENT ON RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT...THE EARLIEST
SNOWFALL RECORDED IN COLUMBIA OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WAS
SMALL...AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. MORE
ABOUT THIS EVENT IS BELOW IN THE NOVEMBER EVENTS SECTION.

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THIS PRODUCED RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MONTH AND AT TIMES A STORM TRACK BRINGING
WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE Gulf of America AND TRACKING THEM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
WARM AND DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA REGIONAL BUSH FIELD WAS 49.2
DEGREES OR 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.2 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 50.5 DEGREES OR 4.3
DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.8 DEGREES.

EVENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2014:

NOVEMBER 1ST...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY THE 1ST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...YET TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AT THE ONSET WERE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...THE INTENSE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRED FROM THE UPSTATE AREA THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA. THE SNOW CAME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOT UNCOMMON. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE MOST SNOW WERE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY INTO SALUDA
COUNTY...EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTREME NW AIKEN COUNTY. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY GA...MCCORMICK
COUNTY SC...THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA...BARNWELL COUNTY SC...BAMBERG
COUNTY SC...ORANGEBURG COUNTY SC AND EVEN DORCHESTER COUNTY SC. MANY
AREAS REPORTED TREES DOWN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND MANY TREES
STILL HOLDING MANY OF THEIR LEAVES.

IN LEXINGTON COUNTY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERT WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES FELL. THE HEAVY SNOW BROUGHT DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...EVEN CLOSING A PORTION OF I-26.

IN SALUDA COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 40 TO 50 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

IN NEWBERRY COUNTY...AIKEN COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 1 INCH IN PLACES.


HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS:

SC-LX-93 GILBERT 1.0 SE.............4.3 INCHES
SC-LX-22 LEXINGTON 5.9 SW...........4.2 INCHES
SC-LX-39 GILBERT 1.2 SSW............3.5 INCHES
SC-LX-69 LEXINGTON 3.0 WSW..........3.0 INCHES
SC-LX-26 LEXINGTON 3.4 SSE..........1.5 INCHES
SC-LX-43 LEXINGTON 1.2 SSW..........1.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OUR NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS:

BATESBURG (BATS1)...................3.5 INCHES
PELION 4 NW (PLNS1).................3.0 INCHES
CEDAR CREEK (BLYS1).................1.0 INCHES
JOHNSTON 4 SW (JOHS1)...............0.8 INCHES
NEWBERRY (NWYS1)....................0.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA EM/PUBLIC/SOCIAL MEDIA:

GILBERT.............................6.0 INCHES
RED BANK............................4.5 INCHES
I-26 MILEMARKER 47..................4.5 INCHES
SUMMIT..............................4.0 INCHES
SALUDA..............................2.0 INCHES
PELION..............................2.0 INCHES
LEXINGTON...........................1-2 INCHES

...HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SNOW INFORMATION FOR COLUMBIA...
PRIOR TO THIS EVENT THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR COLUMBIA WAS
A TRACE OF SNOW THAT FELL ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. THE RECORD SNOWFALL
FOR NOVEMBER OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 28TH, 1912 WHEN 1 INCH OF
SNOW WAS OBSERVED.



NOVEMBER 19TH...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCED THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. MANY
LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE TEENS.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES:

8 E FORT JACKSON...................14 DEGREES
2 ESE SALUDA.......................14 DEGREES
CEDAR CREEK NWS COOP (BLYS1).......14 DEGREES
8 SE NEW ELLENTON..................14 DEGREES
LANDFILL (RCWINDS).................14 DEGREES
BEAR CREEK (RCWINDS)...............14 DEGREES
GADSDEN (RCWINDS)..................14 DEGREES
1 NW BLYTHEWOOD....................15 DEGREES
1 SSE WAYNESBORO GA................15 DEGREES
3 SSE RIDGEWAY.....................15 DEGREES
4 NW PELION NWS COOP (PLNS1).......15 DEGREES
2 E CANE SAVANNAH..................15 DEGREES
9 WNW JEFFERSON....................15 DEGREES
EASTOVER (RCWINDS).................15 DEGREES

 

 

Good post. I realize this is in regard to the 2014-15 winter, but I think a lot of people here are just getting old and don't realize how old some of these winters are. We are as far removed from 2013-2014, as we were from the winter of 1981-1982 (which UPI reports left an indelible mark on weather history - see link at end) in the winter of 1993-1994. I don't know about you, but in 1993/94, I would've considered 1981/82 to be ancient history.  But some of these people would have you believe it was just yesterday.

Link: Winter 1982 rewrites weather history - UPI Archives

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was why I pointed out the big Pacific Jet extension a few days ago. Models typically underestimate the warmth following one of these. 

The CONUS is on track for another very warm fall. This impressive fall warmth  has been the norm over the last decade since the big shift warmer with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

Our last colder fall was back in 2014 and occurred just prior to the big temperature jump. Early signs that fall it was going to be a cold and snowy winter in the East. Plus the record snowfall in South Carolina in early November. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/cae/november2014climatesummary.html

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 PM EDT FRI DEC 5 2014

...NOVEMBER 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY...

...EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SOME PARTS OF THE MIDLANDS RECEIVED UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
1ST...
...2ND COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT AUGUSTA...
...11TH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...17TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT COLUMBIA...
...SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS EITHER BROKEN OR TIED AT AUGUSTA AND
COLUMBIA...
...EL NINO WATCH CONTINUES WITH A WEAK EL NINO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...


THE THEME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS COLD AND WET...EVEN WHITE.
THE MONTH STARTED OFF IN A BIG WAY WITH EARLIEST AND LARGEST SNOW
EVENT ON RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT...THE EARLIEST
SNOWFALL RECORDED IN COLUMBIA OCCURRED ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA THAT RECEIVED THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WAS
SMALL...AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES ARE EXTREMELY UNUSUAL. MORE
ABOUT THIS EVENT IS BELOW IN THE NOVEMBER EVENTS SECTION.

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. THIS PRODUCED RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES DURING THE MONTH AND AT TIMES A STORM TRACK BRINGING
WEATHER SYSTEMS OUT OF THE Gulf of America AND TRACKING THEM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WAS QUITE A CONTRAST TO THE
WARM AND DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUGUSTA REGIONAL BUSH FIELD WAS 49.2
DEGREES OR 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.2 DEGREES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT WAS 50.5 DEGREES OR 4.3
DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.8 DEGREES.

EVENTS FOR NOVEMBER 2014:

NOVEMBER 1ST...A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY THE 1ST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...YET TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AT THE ONSET WERE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS THE AREA...THE INTENSE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS ABLE TO COOL THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A CHANGEOVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW OCCURRED FROM THE UPSTATE AREA THEN EVENTUALLY TO THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND NORTHERN CSRA. THE SNOW CAME DOWN HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOT UNCOMMON. THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE MOST SNOW WERE LOCATED FROM WESTERN LEXINGTON COUNTY INTO SALUDA
COUNTY...EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND EXTREME NW AIKEN COUNTY. SNOW WAS
REPORTED AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY GA...MCCORMICK
COUNTY SC...THE AUGUSTA METRO AREA...BARNWELL COUNTY SC...BAMBERG
COUNTY SC...ORANGEBURG COUNTY SC AND EVEN DORCHESTER COUNTY SC. MANY
AREAS REPORTED TREES DOWN DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND MANY TREES
STILL HOLDING MANY OF THEIR LEAVES.

IN LEXINGTON COUNTY THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERT WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES FELL. THE HEAVY SNOW BROUGHT DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...EVEN CLOSING A PORTION OF I-26.

IN SALUDA COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 40 TO 50 TREES DOWN ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

IN NEWBERRY COUNTY...AIKEN COUNTY AND EDGEFIELD COUNTY...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 1 INCH IN PLACES.


HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS:

SC-LX-93 GILBERT 1.0 SE.............4.3 INCHES
SC-LX-22 LEXINGTON 5.9 SW...........4.2 INCHES
SC-LX-39 GILBERT 1.2 SSW............3.5 INCHES
SC-LX-69 LEXINGTON 3.0 WSW..........3.0 INCHES
SC-LX-26 LEXINGTON 3.4 SSE..........1.5 INCHES
SC-LX-43 LEXINGTON 1.2 SSW..........1.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM OUR NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS:

BATESBURG (BATS1)...................3.5 INCHES
PELION 4 NW (PLNS1).................3.0 INCHES
CEDAR CREEK (BLYS1).................1.0 INCHES
JOHNSTON 4 SW (JOHS1)...............0.8 INCHES
NEWBERRY (NWYS1)....................0.5 INCHES

HERE ARE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VIA EM/PUBLIC/SOCIAL MEDIA:

GILBERT.............................6.0 INCHES
RED BANK............................4.5 INCHES
I-26 MILEMARKER 47..................4.5 INCHES
SUMMIT..............................4.0 INCHES
SALUDA..............................2.0 INCHES
PELION..............................2.0 INCHES
LEXINGTON...........................1-2 INCHES

...HISTORICAL NOVEMBER SNOW INFORMATION FOR COLUMBIA...
PRIOR TO THIS EVENT THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR COLUMBIA WAS
A TRACE OF SNOW THAT FELL ON NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913. THE RECORD SNOWFALL
FOR NOVEMBER OCCURRED BACK ON NOVEMBER 28TH, 1912 WHEN 1 INCH OF
SNOW WAS OBSERVED.



NOVEMBER 19TH...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND PRODUCED THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. MANY
LOCATIONS FELL INTO THE TEENS.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES:

8 E FORT JACKSON...................14 DEGREES
2 ESE SALUDA.......................14 DEGREES
CEDAR CREEK NWS COOP (BLYS1).......14 DEGREES
8 SE NEW ELLENTON..................14 DEGREES
LANDFILL (RCWINDS).................14 DEGREES
BEAR CREEK (RCWINDS)...............14 DEGREES
GADSDEN (RCWINDS)..................14 DEGREES
1 NW BLYTHEWOOD....................15 DEGREES
1 SSE WAYNESBORO GA................15 DEGREES
3 SSE RIDGEWAY.....................15 DEGREES
4 NW PELION NWS COOP (PLNS1).......15 DEGREES
2 E CANE SAVANNAH..................15 DEGREES
9 WNW JEFFERSON....................15 DEGREES
EASTOVER (RCWINDS).................15 DEGREES

 

 

Fascinating that the earliest snowfall in Columbia, South Carolina was November 9, 1913. That coincides with the White Hurricane of 1913, a fierce, fierce storm that brought FEET of snow and damaging, hurricane force winds to the Great Lakes, including a record-breaking 22 inches at Cleveland, Ohio. Columbia must have gotten some snowflakes mixed in as the southern end of the cold front was passing through.

Great Lakes Storm of 1913 - Wikipedia

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Apparently this looks like a ton of snowcover in Canada to our north lol

Certainly a far cry from the original "old-fashioned winter" of 1917-1918, as christened by Charles Franklin Brooks, the founder and first head of the American Meteorological Society, which saw upwards of 17.5" of snow in Wisconsin, 15" in West Virginia and two feet in the Black Hills in the month of October. Not sure how well this bodes for folks hoping for another "old-fashioned" winter this year.

Winter of 1917–18 in the United States - Wikipedia

For more on the winter of 1917-1918, see this fascinating NY Times article from February 20, 1977:

The Winter of 1917–18 Was a Cold One... - The New York Times

As an aside, I find it interesting that the temperatures in Trenton were still being taken on a downtown rooftop at least as recently as 1977. We didn't have the snowflake crybullies that we have today - oh, no, the ASOS is too close to the tarmac! Back in the day, they just took the temperature wherever they could, and I bet the readings were more relevant to the conditions where most people lived (i.e., in the cities). Of course, you'll never see any adjustments made for the elevated readings of the past resulting from such substandard exposure/siting.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30-day SOI is now the highest it's been since Feb 2023.. almost 3 years. 

Now long range models for the 2nd week of November are showing a +NPH (North Pacific High), which is more of a La Nina pattern (+NOI). 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

30-day SOI is now the highest it's been since Feb 2023.. almost 3 years. 

Now long range models for the 2nd week of November are showing a +NPH (North Pacific High), which is more of a La Nina pattern. 

Incredible. What impact, if any, does this trend have on your thoughts for the upcoming winter?

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I remember last year the mid level PV was often partly to mostly uncoupled from the lower level PV, or maybe it was just much weaker than the mid level vortex. Am I remembering that right? I wonder if there are any hints of that happening again. 

 Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV

What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

[BlizzardWx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Here’s what a very knowledgeable non-met recently posted about my observation regarding the historic January in the SE US occurring despite a very strong SPV

What lucked out for us is that even with the stronger SPV last winter, it was rooted to the Hudson Bay TPV so cold air was nearby last winter most of the time, when it’s locked up and wound up on the other side is when it’s a issue,

The issue still remains why that occurred, but this does make sense otherwise. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Incredible. What impact, if any, does this trend have on your thoughts for the upcoming winter?

La Nina effects on the Winter Northern Hemisphere pattern actually puts a High pressure over the North Pacific High, which is just off the west coast of the US. 

A lot of people think its main effect the PNA, which is actually only the case for extreme west-based events. 

Last Winter despite +PNA we did see a +NPH pattern. It was Weak-Nina like. I think we could be looking at a similar pattern here, at least to start this Winter, going into November and early December. Beyond early December, I wonder if the now neutral ENSO subsurface will make the La Nina less impactful. If the SOI stays strong through next month (it's been positive now 15 months in a row), we could see more a of a east-based La Nina like composite for the Winter, which is usually cold in the Upper Midwest and sometimes Great Lakes. La Nina December's also have a tendency to be cool in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast - that's if the SOI stays moderately positive through next month and December. 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

In essence, with all the pacific jet extensions (fueled by the gradient of cold air over Siberia and a record warm northwest Pacific basin), it is likely that we have quite the warm November on the way. One of the big problems over the past few years has been a slow start to snow cover across Canada and over the northern tier. That helps keep CONUS colder. Cold begets cold, and warm begets warm etc. Looks like another slow start to winter weather, similar to Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Not good signs imo. 

A warm or cold November has nothing to do with the winter or the start of winter. We've seen multiple examples in recent years of cold, snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers.

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Until we get that snowcover to build up (coupled with the jet extension over north Pacific) mild air will flood CONUS. No wintry weather in the future for CONUS until we get some cooler weather up north or some sort of strong low pressure traversing the nation that can draw down cold air (even that will be difficult as there's no cold air to our north). Warm and mild November incoming. And it's hard for that snow cover to just snap back up and grow rapidly without any cold storms moving across northern tier or Canada 

In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.