2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This data set illustrates my point about how crucial the WPO will be. All of these seasons except for 1998, which sucked, had a -WPO. Having a favorable WPO leaves much more margin for error, so hopefully the western warm pool is offset enough by the NE PAC warming so that it isn't so extreme this season. A strongly positive WPO leaves virtually no margin for error around the rest of the hemisphere, so if anything else is significantly unfavorable, then most of us are cooked and upside is near normal.

Offsetting the WPAC warm pool may be a very tall task. The above normal anomalies out that way are still off the charts 

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I always advise taking this guy with a grain of salt, but this is an interesting piece....I consider him like snowman, only on the opposite end of the spectrum. He clearly knows enough to be dangerous, but his data always seems to point in the same direction.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/will-north-pacific-ocean-anomaly-bring-cold-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-fa/

When was the last time snowmass was wrong and predicted a below normal winter for the tri-state which ended up busting? If your bias is in this direction than nowadays you're hardly ever wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Offsetting the WPAC warm pool may be a very tall task. The above normal anomalies out that way are still off the charts 

They have been for the past several years, and the WPO averaged negative without a NE warm pool to offset in 2021-2022. Anyway, I'm not arguing it's going to make it negative...just prevent it from being extremely positive.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

When was the last time snowmass was wrong and predicted a below normal winter for the tri-state which ended up busting? If your bias is in this direction than nowadays you're hardly ever wrong.

I don't think 2020-2021 was below normal there. 2021-2022 may not have been, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Also, remember...SSTs are part of a feedback, which is the reason for the correlation, but they don't run the show....if the atmosphere begins changing, the sea will not lead the way.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Offsetting the WPAC warm pool may be a very tall task. The above normal anomalies out that way are still off the charts 

Yeah, those surface SSTs are very impressive. They recently helped to drive the 4 sigma jet streak near the Aleutians when combined with the record cold in Siberia. Just a tremendous thermal gradient.

So we are currently getting the big EPO and PNA volatile swings as the shortwaves are racing through the very fast Pacific flow. But they are only the tip of the iceberg since there is so much stored heat below the surface.

This deep reservoir of warmth contributed to the record Pacific Jet last winter even though there was the deepest trough in 25 years east of Japan. Past instances of strong troughs east of Japan had much colder SSTs and a much weaker Pacific Jet.

But the surface SSTs hardly cooled which maintained the strong SST gradient and faster Pacific flow with the record cold in Siberia. So it gave us the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. 

Going forward I am trying to find other areas which can offset this dominant climate feature since 2018-2019. But it’s still a work in progress. The last time we were able to push back against this feature was in January 2022. It took the MJO 8 tropical forcing to disrupt the pattern for a month. 

I will be happy if we can find another competing source of forcing in the coming years to help the snowfall bounce even a little above the 2019 to 2025 record seven year lows. But it may be a challenging task with that massive WPAC heat engine.

This cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track has become very persistent since the 2018-2019 winter when the rapid SST warming took of in the WPAC.

 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those surface SSTs are very impressive. They recently helped to drive the 4 sigma jet streak near the Aleutians when combined with the record cold in Siberia. Just a tremendous thermal gradient.

So we are currently getting the big EPO and PNA volatile swings as the shortwaves are racing through the very fast Pacific flow. But they are only the tip of the iceberg since there is so much stored heat below the surface.

This deep reservoir of warmth contributed to the record Pacific Jet last winter even though there was the deepest trough in 25 years east of Japan. Past instances of strong troughs east of Japan had much colder SSTs and a much weaker Pacific Jet.

But the surface SSTs hardly cooled which maintained the strong SST gradient and faster Pacific flow with the record cold in Siberia. So it gave us the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. 

Going forward I am trying to find other areas which can offset this dominant climate feature since 2018-2019. But it’s still a work in progress. The last time we were able to push back against this feature was in January 2022. It took the MJO 8 tropical forcing to disrupt the pattern for a month. 

I will be happy if we can find another competing source of forcing in the coming years to help the snowfall bounce even a little above the 2019 to 2025 record seven year lows. But it may be a challenging task with that massive WPAC heat engine.

This cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track has become very persistent since the 2018-2019 winter when the rapid SST warming took of in the WPAC.

 
 

 

We probably won't indentify it until we see the whites of the snow.

[jm1220]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think 2020-2021 was below normal there. 2021-2022 may not have been, either.

20-21 I’d rate as good to very good here, 21-22 as generally average but good for the eastern 2/3 of LI that was slammed by the Jan blizzard. Islip I think had close to BOS’s snow for the season and 24” in the blizzard. The best of 2020-21 was NYC and west. 

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those surface SSTs are very impressive. They recently helped to drive the 4 sigma jet streak near the Aleutians when combined with the record cold in Siberia. Just a tremendous thermal gradient.

So we are currently getting the big EPO and PNA volatile swings as the shortwaves are racing through the very fast Pacific flow. But they are only the tip of the iceberg since there is so much stored heat below the surface.

This deep reservoir of warmth contributed to the record Pacific Jet last winter even though there was the deepest trough in 25 years east of Japan. Past instances of strong troughs east of Japan had much colder SSTs and a much weaker Pacific Jet.

But the surface SSTs hardly cooled which maintained the strong SST gradient and faster Pacific flow with the record cold in Siberia. So it gave us the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. 

Going forward I am trying to find other areas which can offset this dominant climate feature since 2018-2019. But it’s still a work in progress. The last time we were able to push back against this feature was in January 2022. It took the MJO 8 tropical forcing to disrupt the pattern for a month. 

I will be happy if we can find another competing source of forcing in the coming years to help the snowfall bounce even a little above the 2019 to 2025 record seven year lows. But it may be a challenging task with that massive WPAC heat engine.

This cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track has become very persistent since the 2018-2019 winter when the rapid SST warming took of in the WPAC.

 
 

 

It’s just in the worst possible place and orientation for our sensible weather here. The warmth is quite strong, reinforcing and our latitude in the largest ocean and weather flowing toward us directly from that place. And we saw that even a strong El Niño couldn’t really nullify it. Really hoping it’s temporary and goes away. If Pensacola FL can still get major snow events so can NYC.

[BlizzardWx]

 

As most of you probably know, the PDO is the first EOF and explains the greatest amount of variability in the northern Pacific. But there are other modes that matter. I was looking at a paper from Werb and Rudnick in 2023. They showed how historically the PDO accounted for 23% of variance with the 2nd EOF at 13%. But noted how that second EOF in the past decades increased to 18%. It might even be more than that now.

But the point I wanted to make is that this 2nd EOF looks a lot like the pattern we have had lately, particularly with the stronger anomalies off of Japan. Obviously a bit mixed given waters are also warm off the west coast. I'd say we have a -EOF 1 (-PDO) combining with a +EOF 2 right now. Has any work looked at the winter effects of this second EOF? It's not the exact same thing as the NPM. We really ought to be paying more attention to it. 

In a broader sense, the lack of contrast across the Pacific will affect how the -PDO manifests itself compared to the last few winters. It's probably the most widespread warm blob we have seen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

 

As most of you probably know, the PDO is the first EOF and explains the greatest amount of variability in the northern Pacific. But there are other modes that matter. I was looking at a paper from Werb and Rudnick in 2023. They showed how historically the PDO accounted for 23% of variance with the 2nd EOF at 13%. But noted how that second EOF in the past decades increased to 18%. It might even be more than that now.

But the point I wanted to make is that this 2nd EOF looks a lot like the pattern we have had lately, particularly with the stronger anomalies off of Japan. Obviously a bit mixed given waters are also warm off the west coast. I'd say we have a -EOF 1 (-PDO) combining with a +EOF 2 right now. Has any work looked at the winter affects of this second EOF? It's not the exact same thing as the NPM. We really ought to be paying more attention to it. 

In a broader sense, the lack of contrast across the Pacific will affect how the -PDO manifests itself compared to the last few winters. It's probably the most widespread warm blob we have seen. 

This is what I was saying.

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

 

As most of you probably know, the PDO is the first EOF and explains the greatest amount of variability in the northern Pacific. But there are other modes that matter. I was looking at a paper from Werb and Rudnick in 2023. They showed how historically the PDO accounted for 23% of variance with the 2nd EOF at 13%. But noted how that second EOF in the past decades increased to 18%. It might even be more than that now.

But the point I wanted to make is that this 2nd EOF looks a lot like the pattern we have had lately, particularly with the stronger anomalies off of Japan. Obviously a bit mixed given waters are also warm off the west coast. I'd say we have a -EOF 1 (-PDO) combining with a +EOF 2 right now. Has any work looked at the winter effects of this second EOF? It's not the exact same thing as the NPM. We really ought to be paying more attention to it. 

In a broader sense, the lack of contrast across the Pacific will affect how the -PDO manifests itself compared to the last few winters. It's probably the most widespread warm blob we have seen. 

It’ll be an interesting test case for sure if the whole N PAC is warm vs the 2/3 of the western Pacific.

[BlizzardWx]

I'm not real big on the Siberian snow cover thing. But Judah Cohen posted this on X saying we are off to a good start and on track to continue. 

 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I'm not real big on the Siberian snow cover thing. But Judah Cohen posted this on X saying we are off to a good start and on track to continue. 

 

I thought October was the important month not September 

[BlizzardWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I thought October was the important month not September 

Yes, and he says that. But I suppose if September is well above normal it could in theory help October. I don't know, just passing it along basically. 

[kazimirkai]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seasonals have it persisting. Remnant of what triple dip? It wasn't there during those three consecutive La Nina events earlier this decade.

Well I think he was implying that it formed as a result of the event rather than necessarily during it. His name is Paul Roundy and has a lot of neat papers on seasonal climatology fyi. I can ask about the details next class if you want, don't fully know myself tbh.