MJO812 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ready 2 b buried Same It has been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago ^ 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 9 hours ago Author Share Posted 9 hours ago 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ^ It least he has a few flakes dancing around the bad news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded. If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it. This is where we get into non-linear climate shifts as opposed to the more generic and bland sounding CC term. From around 1880 to 1982 we were more or less in a common climate era as the temperature didn’t change that much. Then once emissions began to accelerate after 1980 temperatures began to rise at faster rate. The 1970s were the last time the CONUS had top 10 coldest winters. The next era was from 1982 to 1997 when be began to notice a faster rate of warming than before 1982. Regionally we were still getting very cold winters during this period. But the cold wasn’t as widespread as back in the 1970s. The first real jump in global and national temperatures occurred in 1998. So the next era with similar temperatures occurred from 1998 to early 2015. Some regions like the Midwest and Great Lakes were able to have a very impressive cold and snow in 2013-2014. But this cold couldn’t reach the magnitude across the CONUS that it did during the 1970s. So it was more focused into your area. 2015-2016 was the greatest shift or jump in temperatures that we have ever seen. This marks the beginning of a much warmer era where none of the winters since then have been able to rival any of the snow and cold records experienced as recently as 2009-2010 to 2014-2015. This last decade was the warmest on record during the winters for the CONUS by a significant margin. So we went from CONUS widespread cold in the 1970s to more narrowly focused regional cold prior to 2015-2016. The cold outbreaks since then have been regionally focused more around 30-45 days rather than the 90 day + regional cold of 13-14 and 14-15. The geographic footprint and duration of the cold has been getting shorter. Following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature shift or jump, the cold outbreaks between have been more narrowly focused and of shorter duration. The area around Rockford, IL set a new all-time low in January 2019 but the duration of the extreme cold wasn’t that long. My area in the Northeast had a great 2 week cold period from late December 2017 into early January 2018. But this didn’t last and was followed up by our first 80° February warmth ever. Fast forward to February 2021 for the record cold focused in the Plains for around a month. But the magnitude of the warmth in December 2021 around DFW was greater than that of the cold in February 2021. Next we experienced another global and national baseline temperature shift or jump to higher during 2023-2024. So the core cold this winter was again more narrowly focused and didn’t rank very high as it followed the 4th warmest December on record for the CONUS. The common theme since 2015-2016 has been shorter and more regionally focused cold events surrounded by periods of higher ranking record warmth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is where we get into non-linear climate shifts as opposed to the more generic and bland sounding CC term. From around 1880 to 1982 we were more or less in a common climate era as the temperature didn’t change that much. Then once emissions began to accelerate after 1980 temperatures began to rise at faster rate. The 1970s were the last time the CONUS had top 10 coldest winters. The next era was from 1982 to 1997 when be began to notice a faster rate of warming than before 1982. Regionally we were still getting very cold winters during this period. But the cold wasn’t as widespread as back in the 1970s. The first real jump in global and national temperatures occurred in 1998. So the next era with similar temperatures occurred from 1998 to early 2015. Some regions like the Midwest and Great Lakes were able to have a very impressive cold and snow in 2013-2014. But this cold couldn’t reach the magnitude across the CONUS that it did during the 1970s. So it was more focused into your area. 2015-2016 was the greatest shift or jump in temperatures that we have ever seen. This marks the beginning of a much warmer era where none of the winters since then have been able to rival any of the snow and cold records experienced as recently as 2009-2010 to 2014-2015. This last decade was the warmest on record during the winters for the CONUS by a significant margin. So we went from CONUS widespread cold in the 1970s to more narrowly focused regional cold prior to 2015-2016. The cold outbreaks since then have been regionally focused more around 30-45 days rather than the 90 day + regional cold of 13-14 and 14-15. The geographic footprint and duration of the cold has been getting shorter. Following the 2015-2016 baseline temperature shift or jump, the cold outbreaks between have been more narrowly focused and of shorter duration. The area around Rockford, IL set a new all-time low in January 2019 but the duration of the extreme cold wasn’t that long. My area in the Northeast had a great 2 week cold period from late December 2017 into early January 2018. But this didn’t last and was followed up by our first 80° February warmth ever. Fast forward to February 2021 for the record cold focused in the Plains for around a month. But the magnitude of the warmth in December 2021 around DFW was greater than that of the cold in February 2021. Next we experienced another global and national baseline temperature shift or jump to higher during 2023-2024. So the core cold this winter was again more narrowly focused and didn’t rank very high as it followed the 4th warmest December on record for the CONUS. The common theme since 2015-2016 has been shorter and more regionally focused cold events surrounded by periods of higher ranking record warmth. my major question is why the world doesn't just slightly adjust back from those events like the 15-16 super nino? is it just "unable" to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 16 minutes ago, bncho said: my major question is why the world doesn't just slightly adjust back from those events like the 15-16 super nino? is it just "unable" to? Take a wild, crazy, absolute out-of-left-field guess about what his response may entail...go ahead-go nuts.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Take a wild, cracy, absolute out-of-left-field guess about what his response may entail...go ahead-go nuts.... Haha yes, the tinfoil hat can be worn by many people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I dont think we'll ever see another 2013-14 here and I've said that many times. However, if everything aligned pattern wise for a similar winter (again, highly unlikely), I do not buy for one minute the bogus "new climate weather adjustment" bs. The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded. If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it. I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 6 hours ago Author Share Posted 6 hours ago 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years….. It really wasn't anything remarkable in terms of sensible weather for my area....maybe 10% above average snowfall with no huge events. Cold was nothing out of the ordinary, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago @Gawx This may well turn into the strongest -IOD event since 1917 and 1933…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @Gawx This may well turn into the strongest -IOD event since 1917 and 1933…. Snowman, thanks. Do you have a link to a table of monthly IOD history? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Snowman, thanks. Do you have a link to a table of monthly IOD history? https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Maybe the time has come to rethink parameters such as SSTs/AMO and ENSO for seasonal hurricane forecasts…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago @bluewave @donsutherland1 Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The Apr-May SLP pattern in the Atlantic was a giveaway.. something to look at in future years. Pattern never really supported a major warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Lack of eastward MJO propagation, -IOD and persistent strong trades has lead to a deep -AAM and La Niña like regime We haven't been seeing a big Aleutian ridge though. It looks like a vortex over the Arctic circle will get down below 4950dm tomorrow! That is probably record breaking, occurring just north of Russia and coming in close to -500dm. These vortexes over the last few weeks have been something, in the last few days of August we also had a sub-5000dm vortex over the Arctic circle. These extremes are similar to like Cuba hitting freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, it is getting more difficult to get very cold winters in an absolute sense (against shifting climo is different)....that said, it's not as pronounced where you live as it is on the east coast. I understand that, I just meant that if a pattern in place is going to produce a lot of cold and snow, nothings going to stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the impressive cold outbreak over the last few weeks has been focused to our west again. The Columbus, OH area saw their 5th coldest 2 week Aug 25 to Sep 7 period. This has been a repeating theme since the 2015-2016 super El Niño global and national temperature jump. We saw this during this past winter when the coldest anomalies went to our SW and W. Then especially in February 2021 when the record cold went down the Plains and caused all the problems for Texas. Prior to this we had the record cold stay to our west in January 2019 when new all-time records for cold were set around Rockford, IL. The last impressive cold outbreak for a few weeks centered in the Northeast was back in late December 2017 into early January 2018. The last extended cold to be centered in the Northeast was JFM 2015. Time Series Summary for Columbus Area, OH (ThreadEx) top 5 coldest Aug 25 to Sep 7Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1885-09-07 61.9 0 2 1915-09-07 64.3 0 3 1891-09-07 64.6 0 4 1896-09-07 64.7 0 5 2025-09-07 64.8 0 - 1988-09-07 64.8 0 - 1967-09-07 64.8 0 It was the 6th coldest Aug 25-Sept 7 period at Detroit, but coldest since 1935. Color is coming on earlier than normal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It really wasn't anything remarkable in terms of sensible weather for my area....maybe 10% above average snowfall with no huge events. Cold was nothing out of the ordinary, either. 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years….. The entire pattern was definitely EVERYTHING going right. And everything busted in our favor. In 150 years of data, 2013-14 ranks for Detroit: Total Snowfall- #1 1"+ Snowcover Days - #1 6"+ Snowcover Days - #1 12"+ Snowcover Days - #1 Cold- DJF #8, NDJFM- #4 And constant wind for drifting snow. Rural open areas in Monroe County, MI (between Detroit & Toledo) had snow completely bury some barns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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