2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity too
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

[snowman19]

[roardog]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had a warm, humid summer here, and while once again, extreme temps were not a thing (14 days of 90F+, which is only 1 day more than normal, and only 4 of these days were 93+) it was the warm humid nights that made their mark. 

Yet now, we are in a stretch of a what will be about 10 days straight of unseasonably cool nights, several of them flirting in record low territory, so to say that summers back is broken is an understatement. The trees are starting to get some color as well. 

Through yesterday, we are now at .4 above average for the month around here. Tomorrow will be well below average and the lows around here for sure will be below average the rest of the month. The highs might be too but Sunday might be close. I think we’re going to end the month slightly below average with the low temperatures leading the way which has become quite unusual in recent times.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. The Niña is tipping its hand much earlier this year than last, there’s a -IOD event now and the NW Pacific is even warmer. There’s also a very pronounced -PMM and we have a deep -AAM, whereas last year was very +AAM/Nino like. Last year by this time we had a parade of recurving tropical and extratropical storms training over the inferno SSTS off Japan cooling/upwelling them, not happening this time around. In fact the -PDO is even stronger now with SSTS of 11 degrees F above normal in that area….that’s staggering. And obvious big changes in the Atlantic with the big persistent cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight

EDIT: We’ve also had a QBO flip from + to -
 
 

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Through yesterday, we are now at .4 above average for the month around here. Tomorrow will be well below average and the lows around here for sure will be below average the rest of the month. The highs might be too but Sunday might be close. I think we’re going to end the month slightly below average with the low temperatures leading the way which has become quite unusual in recent times.

I also have a feeling the trees are really going to start taking off with these cool nights. Its not at all uncommon to see some stressed color by now, but I've been noticing many trees starting to get some color the last few days.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Highest daily SOI today since May.. +24. I think a Weaker La Nina state is more likely for the Winter. 2nd year La Nina's and -PDO's tend to have a more classic cold season -PNA pattern, but we haven't had as strong of a -PNA generally since the 23-24 Strong El Nino. 

It's very likely that August 2025 will be the 11th consecutive month with +SOI

Top 20 best matches since 1948 to 2nd year La Nina vs 2nd year El Nino for the cold season (Nov-March)

Dec-Feb

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface.

Nice post. I love subsurface data, as the thermocline probably has a better correlation to our pattern than surface SSTs, which are variable from the pattern (look at how much Erin cooled SSTs). Subsurface data is spotty, so any info on that is great info. That updated image to July 2025 is cool. I would think in a more classic -PDO it wouldn't be as warm from the top down, and you would have more consistency about 200m deep. I've always said I think it's more of a decadal La Nina state in effect. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/27/2025 at 1:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

(Long winded) Mic drop-

Another trough hitting the Great Lakes around 9/4.. it will be interesting to see where we go after that, it might start warming.. October is the month of the year where the PDO correlation really picks up, and is the highest correlated PDO month of the year, in terms of non-0-time based happening:

But in September the PDO correlation is still weak

[roardog]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I also have a feeling the trees are really going to start taking off with these cool nights. Its not at all uncommon to see some stressed color by now, but I've been noticing many trees starting to get some color the last few days.

Yeah. I’m seeing that too. I remember a lot of early color in 2017 after that cool August and early September. Then it of course turned hot in late September as you know. lol. 

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I’m seeing that too. I remember a lot of early color in 2017 after that cool August and early September. Then it of course turned hot in late September as you know. lol. 

I remember. Don't think we see that kind of heat later in September this year though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Interesting that the pattern usually flips one year after a 2nd year La Nina minus 2nd year El Nino (Winter 26-27)

[snowman19]

Looks dry for the foreseeable future. If this continues through September we will end up in the same boat we were in with last fall’s drought

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice post. I love subsurface data, as the thermocline probably has a better correlation to our pattern than surface SSTs, which are variable from the pattern (look at how much Erin cooled SSTs). Subsurface data is spotty, so any info on that is great info. That updated image to July 2025 is cool. I would think in a more classic -PDO it wouldn't be as warm from the top down, and you would have more consistency about 200m deep. I've always said I think it's more of a decadal La Nina state in effect. 

Yeah, the trough to the east of Japan this February was the strongest since 2000 for the month. Most of the times in the past with very deep low pressure in this region there was also a trough in the Southeast.

The jet stream extension from East Asia crossing the U.S. was extremely strong. So the big event in mid-February ran too far north through the Great Lakes when we had the 5SD Greenland block giving places like Toronto the record snowfall instead of the East Coast.

Plus we got a Southeast Ridge this February when there wasn’t usually one in the past under the older configurations with deep low pressure east of Japan. 

The much stronger Pacific Jet and a robust Southeast ridge at storm time have both lead to the record  low 7 year snowfall from Philly to Boston.

 

 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I remember. Don't think we see that kind of heat later in September this year though.

Euro weeklies say we won't. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies say we won't. 
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

I’d be more concerned with the new EURO 30 day QPF forecast which goes to October 1st. If it’s correct, September is going to be dry as a bone on the east coast from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast…..

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’d be more concerned with the new EURO 30 day QPF forecast which goes to October 1st. If it’s correct, September is going to be dry as a bone on the east coast from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast…..

First of all, I  was responding to Michigan's comment that September this year wouldn't be as warm as 9/17, not to precip.

That said, Euro weeklies are updated every day as I'm sure you know, so they would include newer information than the monthly comprising info thru the end of July. Here's a link to yesterday's Euro weeklies precip forecast. 1 out of 6 weeks shows the NE BN precip and 5 show normal. So if I was going to be worried, I'm not.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First of all, I  was responding to Michigan's comment that September this year wouldn't be as warm as 9/17, not to precip.

That said, Euro weeklies are updated every day as I'm sure you know, so they would include newer information than the monthly comprising info thru the end of July. Here's a link to yesterday's Euro weeklies precip forecast. 1 out of 6 weeks shows the NE BN precip and 5 show normal. So if I was going to be worried, I'm not.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

I was going to post this, but you beat me to it.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I was going to post this, but you beat me to it.

Some of us oldsters are pretty fast on those wheels! 

[snowman19]

First of all, I  was responding to Michigan's comment that September this year wouldn't be as warm as 9/17, not to precip.
That said, Euro weeklies are updated every day as I'm sure you know, so they would include newer information than the monthly comprising info thru the end of July. Here's a link to yesterday's Euro weeklies precip forecast. 1 out of 6 weeks shows the NE BN precip and 5 show normal. So if I was going to be worried, I'm not.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Just noticed everyone’s favorite met tweeted the EURO 30 day QPF map

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just noticed everyone’s favorite met tweeted the EURO 30 day QPF map

 

 

 

 

Only your favorite since you are the only one who brings him up.  That post has 4 comments btw.  It shows no one cares.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Only your favorite since you are the only one who brings him up.  That post has 4 comments btw.  It shows no one cares.

I thought it was posted more because Snowman agrees with his suggestion of an uptick in tropical activity would be no surprise, MJO going into favorable phases and not warmer maritime phases, and the cold coming between Thanksgiving and Christmas. 

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I thought it was posted more because Snowman agrees with his suggestion of an uptick in tropical activity would be no surprise, MJO going into favorable phases and not warmer maritime phases, and the cold coming between Thanksgiving and Christmas. 

I haven’t blocked him for the entertainment value. His forecast is the exact same literally every single year without fail for the past 20+ years. “Severe cold and snow in the east from Thanksgiving until New Year’s”. You can set your watch to it, wash, rinse, repeat

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just noticed everyone’s favorite met tweeted the EURO 30 day QPF map

 

 

 

 

 That’s a WxBell version of yesterday’s Euro Weeklies that covers 8/28-9/26 of 2025. I prefer to look at the output from the source, itself, ECMWF, as some WxBell maps are of questionable accuracy due to their algos:

9/1-7: slightly BN coastal MA (tan 1st shade is within 10 mm BN or <0.4” BN) and NN inland MA and all of NE

 

9/8-14: NN MA, slightly BN much of NE

 

9/15-21: NN

 

9/22-28: NN

 

 These 4 weeks don’t look as dry as the WxBell 30 day map implies.

@mitchnick

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies say we won't. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202508280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202509080000

Its already been dry here in August. But honestly I dont care. As long as it gets more active in winter im fine. Definitely want to avoid any late heat. I am amazed how the color is picking up so early. The last week, Detroit has now had a low of 58, 55, 50, 50, 53, 50 with most suburbs in the 40s multiple times including several around 40 in the traditional cold spots. The forecast low tonight is 48 Detroit with 40s everywhere else, then some 50s, and the more 40s later in the week. With low humidity, sunny days, and 2+ consecutive weeks of cooler than normal nights, the color will continue to expand. 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Just noticed everyone’s favorite met tweeted the EURO 30 day QPF map

 

 

 

 

Wow! Looks like the Army Corps is going to be a lot of dredging for a fourth consecutive autumn. Hopefully, we don't see the salt intrusion problems of recent years in NOLA.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Perhaps the real difference between this year and last year is Nino 1+2. Last year, we had moderate, borderline strong el nino conditions in 1+2, a continuation of an el nino in that region from the 2023-24 el nino. This is why I don't consider last year to be an el nino. I consider it to be ENSO neutral, and even then, it's not a traditional ENSO neutral. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is very rare.

Recent readings of Nino 1+2 is near 0, showing that the el nino that started in mid-2023 in the region has dissipated. So if we do get la nina conditions this year, it would be a true la nina, unlike last year.