2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I wonder if that was going into a big el nino? and it looks like your 1953 was as extreme as ours was!

Yes, the 10-12 day August/Sept 1953 heatwave baked a massive part of the nation. It was headline news every day in the newspaper.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, the 10-12 day August/Sept 1953 heatwave baked a massive part of the nation. It was headline news every day in the newspaper.

Many of our heat records are from that period between 44-55 (1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955 and then 1966 which was both extremely hot and extremely dry.)

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1881 Larry

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

[George BM]

Oh okay...

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

Just goes to show enso isn't always the culprit. After a hot September, the winter of 1881-82 was awful. Warm and snowless. Stands to this day as Detroits warmest (and 2nd least snowy) winter on record. Coming after the severe winter of 1880-81 it must've been a nightmare

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just goes to show enso isn't always the culprit. After a hot September, the winter of 1881-82 was awful. Warm and snowless. Stands to this day as Detroits warmest (and 2nd least snowy) winter on record. Coming after the severe winter of 1880-81 it must've been a nightmare

How was 1983-84 for you? We had a very hot summer that culminated with 7 days of 90+ in September including a sizzling 99 on 9/11 (our latest 99 ever) and a 95 on 9/23 lol. 1983-84 was a very cold la nina here with a couple of moderate sized snowfalls,. 4-5 inches that stayed on the ground a long time and we even went below zero (which we did in a few years during the 80s, Christmas 1980, January 1982, December 1983, January 1985.)

It was our hottest summer on record before 2010.

 

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, George BM said:

Oh okay...

This isn’t the first time. These neutral teases aren’t going to cut it. We need it to break through to sustained +1 at least

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, George BM said:

Oh okay...

This means that the NOAA daily PDO is likely back down to the -2.5 to -3 range.

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How was 1983-84 for you? We had a very hot summer that culminated with 7 days of 90+ in September including a sizzling 99 on 9/11 (our latest 99 ever) and a 95 on 9/23 lol. 1983-84 was a very cold la nina here with a couple of moderate sized snowfalls,. 4-5 inches that stayed on the ground a long time and we even went below zero (which we did in a few years during the 80s, Christmas 1980, January 1982, December 1983, January 1985.)

It was our hottest summer on record before 2010.

 

1983-84 was a good winter! Cold and snowy. No memorable storms but 51.8" of snow overall and temps well below avg (28th coldest on record). We saw the coldest temp on the 21st century with -21F on Jan 21 (not to be confused w/ the coldest day, Jan 19, 1994, high -4, low -20).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

1983-84 was a good winter! Cold and snowy. No memorable storms but 51.8" of snow overall and temps well below avg (28th coldest on record). We saw the coldest temp on the 21st century with -21F on Jan 21 (not to be confused w/ the coldest day, Jan 19, 1994, high -4, low -20).

wild were you also that cold on our coldest day in my life, January 20, 1985 the Reagan Inaugural, when we had a low of -2 and a high 7, the only time I can remember with a high in the single digits!!

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Completely disagree that it would take a major volcanic eruption to see a winter avg temp of 23.1F. We were 2.2F colder than that in 2014! Detroit saw a mean temp of 23.3F in 2014-15 following 20.9F in 2013-14. 

Now obviously its not common. The 23.1F mean temp in 1958-59 is the 18th coldest winter on record (and was at the time the coldest in 23 years). But I hate talking in absolutes about future weather. 

2023-24 was a warm winter but it had been seen before. March 2012 had never been seen before.

The baseline temperatures have warmed twice since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. First in 15-16 and then again in 23-24. So the chances of Detroit seeing a winter with average temperatures as cold as 13-14 and 14-15 again without a major volcanic eruption is very low. 
 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) 10 coldest winters dense rank sorting for temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	18.7	0
2	1874-1875	19.1	0
3	1976-1977	19.8	0
-	1917-1918	19.8	0
4	1977-1978	20.4	0
-	1962-1963	20.4	0
5	1935-1936	20.8	0
6	2013-2014	20.9	0
-	1919-1920	20.9	0
7	1978-1979	21.3	0
-	1904-1905	21.3	0
-	1892-1893	21.3	0
8	1981-1982	21.8	0
-	1911-1912	21.8	0
-	1880-1881	21.8	0
-	1878-1879	21.8	0
9	1969-1970	22.5	0
10	2014-2015	23.0	0

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The baseline temperatures have warmed twice since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. First in 15-16 and then again in 23-24. So the chances of Detroit seeing a winter with average temperatures as cold as 13-14 and 14-15 again without a major volcanic eruption is very low. 
 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) 10 coldest winters dense rank sorting for temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	18.7	0
2	1874-1875	19.1	0
3	1976-1977	19.8	0
-	1917-1918	19.8	0
4	1977-1978	20.4	0
-	1962-1963	20.4	0
5	1935-1936	20.8	0
6	2013-2014	20.9	0
-	1919-1920	20.9	0
7	1978-1979	21.3	0
-	1904-1905	21.3	0
-	1892-1893	21.3	0
8	1981-1982	21.8	0
-	1911-1912	21.8	0
-	1880-1881	21.8	0
-	1878-1879	21.8	0
9	1969-1970	22.5	0
10	2014-2015	23.0	0

Chris would you have said this before 2013-14 and 2014-15 too?

One thing about climate change, it means more extremes, more droughts more rain and snow, and more extreme temperatures (maybe more likely in winter than summer.)

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I continue to have a strong signal for Heating Oil Up tomorrow.. about 57% chance. 

Heating Oil Up 2.4% today, making the prediction 2/2, with a combined total of +3.8%. It also outperformed Crude Oil for the 4th day in a row, saying that it is more about the heat. The point is, sometimes coming weather events are not fully baked into the market price, especially when models suddenly catch onto it inside 2 weeks. A friend of mine on another board did research, and found that this late-June period has the highest correlation with the rest of the Summer in the eastern US, outweighing things like ENSO. A ridge in the last week of June often precedes a hotter Summer. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, George BM said:

Oh okay...

Keep in mind that October 2024 was the lowest monthly PDO on record, going back to the 1800s, so this recent dip is no lite event. June PNA has a pretty good correlation with a stronger Winter SE ridge in Dec-Jan-March. We'll be around -1 for June PNA (correlation of below maps is opposite for negative phase)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I continue to have a high predicted value for Heating Oil tomorrow.. about 57% chance.  More about unfactored-in Summer heat

[Stormchaserchuck1]

More widespread +AO on 384hr ensembles.. 2nd year in a row we get this strong pattern after a very active Sun 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris would you have said this before 2013-14 and 2014-15 too?

One thing about climate change, it means more extremes, more droughts more rain and snow, and more extreme temperatures (maybe more likely in winter than summer.)

 

 

Exactly. Im sure he would've said this before 2013. All this talk about a warming base state and yet the very first winter after this "2023-24 warming base state" was colder than average. 

Seeing the magnitude of some of the cold blasts we have had since 2016, despite overall domination of milder than avg winters, really makes me disagree with his assertion. As has been said many times, you dont talk about the future in absolutes.

[GaWx]

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check out Nino 1+2 warming up substantially again:

Subsurface warmth from the Apr-May Kelvin wave seems to be making it to the surface. 

This is why I don't really trust subsurface data from the 1950s. Since 2000, it has been a solid predictor of surface SSTs +months time. It apparently didn't do that in the 40s-50s. 

[snowman19]

Subsurface warmth from the Apr-May Kelvin wave seems to be making it to the surface. 
This is why I don't really trust subsurface data from the 1950s. Since 2000, it has been a solid predictor of surface SSTs +months time. It apparently didn't do that in the 40s-50s. 

The current thinking is that this is going to be a central-based/Modoki -ENSO (be it cold-neutral or weak La Niña)

[snowman19]

We are getting multi-model consensus now on a -IOD developing this summer. If so, that will be the final nail in the coffin for any chance of a +ENSO forming…..

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris would you have said this before 2013-14 and 2014-15 too?

One thing about climate change, it means more extremes, more droughts more rain and snow, and more extreme temperatures (maybe more likely in winter than summer.)

 

 

The U.S. and North America have never experienced a 10 winter temperature shift this warm following a global temperature baseline jump. This has been the warmest 10 year stretch the CONUS has experienced since National CONUS records began in 1895 by a significant margin.

It seems like the 15-16 crossed a threshold that we didn’t realize was there. Since it set off a series of shifts where marine heatwaves and global air temperatures started to accelerate beyond previous limits. Plus the winter storm track lifted north into the Great Lakes a few years after in 18-19 leading to record low snowfalls in our area since then.

My guess is that the world experienced a non-linear shift and we will need a volcanic eruption like we haven’t seen in hundreds to thousands of years to shift us back to the colder temperatures prior to 15-16. But such a change to colder would only be temporary.
 

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

[snowman19]

The U.S. and North America have never experienced a 10 winter temperature shift this warm following a global temperature baseline jump. This has been the warmest 10 year stretch the CONUS has experienced since National CONUS records began in 1895 by a significant margin.
It seems like the 15-16 crossed a threshold that we didn’t realize was there. Since it set off a series of shifts where marine heatwaves and global air temperatures started to accelerate beyond previous limits. Plus the winter storm track lifted north into the Great Lakes a few years after in 18-19 leading to record low snowfalls in our area since then.
My guess is that the world experienced a non-linear shift and we will need a volcanic eruption like we haven’t seen in hundreds to thousands of years to shift us back to the colder temperatures prior to 15-16. But such a change to colder would only be temporary.
 


https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

I would have to say I agree. It would probably take a classic (sulfate aerosol) tropical volcanic eruption of a Mount Tambora, VEI 7 scale, to have a profound effect on global temperatures at this point

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I would have to say I agree. It would probably take a classic (sulfate aerosol) tropical volcanic eruption of a Mount Tambora, VEI 7 scale, to have a profound effect on global temperatures at this point

Instead of volcanoes which are extremely dangerous and can kill thousands of people, why dont we work on climate modification to fix what we caused?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The U.S. and North America have never experienced a 10 winter temperature shift this warm following a global temperature baseline jump. This has been the warmest 10 year stretch the CONUS has experienced since National CONUS records began in 1895 by a significant margin.

It seems like the 15-16 crossed a threshold that we didn’t realize was there. Since it set off a series of shifts where marine heatwaves and global air temperatures started to accelerate beyond previous limits. Plus the winter storm track lifted north into the Great Lakes a few years after in 18-19 leading to record low snowfalls in our area since then.

My guess is that the world experienced a non-linear shift and we will need a volcanic eruption like we haven’t seen in hundreds to thousands of years to shift us back to the colder temperatures prior to 15-16. But such a change to colder would only be temporary.
 

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

If this was caused by a super el nino can we find a way to modify the ocean currents to reverse it or just prevent el ninos like that from ever happening again to make things worse?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Damn, Philly is fast...was about to post the IRI update lol.

Looks like El Niño is off the table...gonna either be cool neutral or weak La Niña, but given what we know about the state of the globe...probably wise to err on the side of caution and assume weak La Niña type of net impact. That said, what last season taught me is don't ENSO be a prohibitive factor in your analysis and discretion with analogs....ie, if you see strong value in a season, then go ahead an include it...even if its neutral or warmish ENSO. There is no way anyone could have had the Aleutian low reflected in their forecast composite for last season had they restricted themselves to solely cool ENSO seasons.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Damn, Philly has fast...was about to post the IRI update lol.

Looks like El Niño is off the table...gonna either be cool neutral or weak La Niña, but given what we know about the state of the globe...probably wise to err on the side of caution and assume weak La Niña type of net impact. That said, what last season taught me is don't ENSO be a prohibitive factor in your analysis and discretion with analogs....ie, if you see strong value in a season, then go ahead an include it...even if its neutral or warmish ENSO. There is no way anyone could have had the Aleutian low reflected in their forecast composite for last season had they restricted themselves to solely cool ENSO seasons.

Do you think that these days.. analogs are getting less relevant? Sure feels like it, but hey I'm just an amateur hobbyist here, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you think that these days.. analogs are getting less relevant? Sure feels like it, but hey I'm just an amateur hobbyist here, lol

Depends on the how they are applied....analogs in the explicit sense, ie verbatim with the expectation of a replica season evolving....yes. 

I don't use them that way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You need to parse through analog seasons and determine what value there is to be gleaned from each, and then how to apply it to your forecast.