2025-2026 ENSO

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, ACE is more predictable.....obviously the most important factor is land impact.

It’s been a very rough stretch for the areas around the Gulf extending up into places like Asheville last year. 
 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

JB is actually calling for a not as active season as last year with ACE of 120-150, whose midpoint of 135 is only slightly above the ~122 avg of 1991-2020 along with only slightly above avg 7-9 H and near avg 2-3 MH:

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

Good luck with that. Anyone that's been paying attention knows we're not coming anywhere near these numbers.

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Good luck with that. Anyone that's been paying attention knows we're not coming anywhere near these numbers.

I sincerely hope you’re right as I want a quiet season for a change. But “anyone that’s been paying attention knows we’re not coming anywhere these numbers”?? 

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

 
Based on what are you saying you know we’ll be nowhere close to these mainly only slightly above avg #s? We’re headed toward a weak Niña per RONI, which favors more active than avg and Atlantic temps are near the 1991-2020 avg, not cool.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

JB is actually calling for a not as active season as last year with ACE of 120-150, whose midpoint of 135 is only slightly above the ~122 avg of 1991-2020 along with only slightly above avg 7-9 H and near avg 2-3 MH:

 

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

Okay, no one is calling for hyper active.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a very rough stretch for the areas around the Gulf extending up into places like Asheville last year. 
 

 

I think CC is going to impact the tropics in the same manner that it is winter in terms of the greater degree of variance...ie "all of nothing". When conditions are favorable, it will undoubtedly be hyper active with instense storms, but I think there will be some instances where it will result in greater shear.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I sincerely hope you’re right as I want a quiet season for a change. But “anyone that’s been paying attention knows we’re not coming anywhere these numbers”?? 

Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150

 
Based on what are you saying you know we’ll be nowhere close to these mainly slightly above avg #s? We’re headed toward a weak Niña per RONI, which favors more active than avg and Atlantic temps are near the 1991-2020 avg, not cool?

All the subtle changes. For one, the Pacific is already active this year. That was not the case last year. Secondly, we're entering a 2nd year without a clear ENSO state, and we're near a solar max. The last time we had those conditions were in 2013 and 2014, and both produced well below average seasons. (Quite a contrast to 2010-2012, which were 3 very active seasons.)

Everything is screaming this is going to be a quiet season.  Here's my forecast (using 2013 and 2014 as my main analogs):

11 named storms (range 8-14)

4 hurricanes (range 2-6)

1 major hurricane (range 0-2)

51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

All the subtle changes. For one, the Pacific is already active this year. That was not the case last year. Secondly, we're entering a 2nd year without a clear ENSO state, and we're near a solar max. The last time we had those conditions were in 2013 and 2014, and both produced well below average seasons. (Quite a contrast to 2010-2012, which were 3 very active seasons.)

Everything is screaming this is going to be a quiet season.  Here's my forecast (using 2013 and 2014 as my main analogs):

11 named storms (range 8-14)

4 hurricanes (range 2-6)

1 major hurricane (range 0-2)

51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

Wow! Thanks, I hope you’re right because I want quiet, but that would mean I bust hard with my 139 ACE and 9H/3MH forecast. I have 14 NS. 
 Keep in mind that per RONI that ASO 2014 was warm neutral and 2013 was cold neutral vs 2025’s ASO likely active season favoring weak La Niña.

[bluewave]

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

 

Wasn't this the one that produced the 120F (50C) temperatures in Western Canada at 50N latitude?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Wasn't this the one that produced the 120F (50C) temperatures in Western Canada at 50N latitude?

why cant we get that here?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

did we have a la nina state in the 44-55 period too?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

did we have a la nina state in the 44-55 period too?

Yeah, at least 1944-57 was a la nina state. (You could argue the la nina state lasted until 1976, although it was temporarily broken up during the strong el nino in 1957-58.)

[roardog]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.

[michsnowfreak]

On 6/12/2025 at 9:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

Maybe because of the warmer Great Lakes?

They were only warmer early. They cooled down quick with plenty of ice cover by mid-winter. The overall ice cover was right around average, but Lake Erie was 100% frozen for a time.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

Im not looking forward to the heat but its been a very pleasant June so far. Plenty of cloudy days, quite a few early Fall-like temperature days, and the few warm days have come with low humidity. Ive had my windows open far more than my air on, so no complaints. You knew the heat was coming, so the longer we can delay it the shorter the unbearable part of the year will be.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, at least 1944-57 was a la nina state. (You could argue the la nina state lasted until 1976, although it was temporarily broken up during the strong el nino in 1957-58.)

Thanks that explains all the extreme heat in 1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955

It matches up with the extreme heat we had in 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999 and 2002.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

I don't remember any heat in late June 2021.....

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Breaking 6000dm on the 0z GFS.. I was wrong about no extreme heat. This is one heck of a way to even out this unusual mid-June cool period. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Continued really strong +NAO/+AO pattern.. the CPC readings don't go that high, but the 500mb over Greenland and the Davis Strait rival a 3-standard deviation trough. We saw the same exact thing last year, weeks after major solar flares (which we had a short time ago)

Say what you want about Winter -NAO not correlating with East coast troughs, but we have seen some really extreme ridges under strong +NAO H5 patterns since January 2024. 

[snowman19]

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 


 

 

The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't remember any heat in late June 2021.....

 

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/01/2021-was-northeasts-third-warmest-year-1895#:~:text=On June 30%2C Newark (103,Burlington%2C Vermont (2).

On June 30, Newark (103 degrees) and Boston (100 degrees) logged their all-time hottest June temperatures.

Several cities set or tied records for the greatest number of June days with a high temperature of at least 95 degrees, including Newark (8), Boston (5), Concord, New Hampshire (3) and Burlington, Vermont (2). Concord saw its greatest number of June days (9) with a high of at least 90 degrees.

Seven sites recorded their warmest-ever minimum June temperatures. June 27: Caribou, 69 degrees; Rochester 75 and Syracuse 78. June 28: Dulles Airport, Chantilly, Virginia, 74. June 29: Concord 74, Harrisburg 79 and Portland 75.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/01/2021-was-northeasts-third-warmest-year-1895#:~:text=On June 30%2C Newark (103,Burlington%2C Vermont (2).

On June 30, Newark (103 degrees) and Boston (100 degrees) logged their all-time hottest June temperatures.

Several cities set or tied records for the greatest number of June days with a high temperature of at least 95 degrees, including Newark (8), Boston (5), Concord, New Hampshire (3) and Burlington, Vermont (2). Concord saw its greatest number of June days (9) with a high of at least 90 degrees.

Seven sites recorded their warmest-ever minimum June temperatures. June 27: Caribou, 69 degrees; Rochester 75 and Syracuse 78. June 28: Dulles Airport, Chantilly, Virginia, 74. June 29: Concord 74, Harrisburg 79 and Portland 75.

Must be more over the top heat, we had nothing here of note. I noticed Newark and Boston are mentioned but nothing about New York City or even Philadelphia lol.

None of these recent heatwaves are anywhere close to the widespread heat we had in the past. I wonder why it's so difficult to get heat like we used to back when it reached coast to coast?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

Looks like it's hotter in western Canada?

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Breaking 6000dm on the 0z GFS.. I was wrong about no extreme heat. This is one heck of a way to even out this unusual mid-June cool period. 

the most extreme heat looks like it will be north of us though?

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im not looking forward to the heat but its been a very pleasant June so far. Plenty of cloudy days, quite a few early Fall-like temperature days, and the few warm days have come with low humidity. Ive had my windows open far more than my air on, so no complaints. You knew the heat was coming, so the longer we can delay it the shorter the unbearable part of the year will be.

Yeah, we got a relaxation of the warm spring pattern for a time heading into late May here. Some spots had record highs here earlier this month for a day. But anytime we see all-time record heat like International Falls got back in May, it gives us a preview of what is possible as we approach the summer solstice now. Overall for the CONUS this averaged out as the 2nd warmest spring. So any comfortable temperatures that we have been getting recently is a real gift against such a warm background state.

 

International Falls set the all-time warmest minimum minimum by 4° in May

Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	70	0
2	1992	66	0
-	1988	66	0
3	1991	64	0
-	1919	64	0
4	2018	63	0
-	2014	63	0
-	1986	63	0
5	2021	62	0
-	2007	62	0
-	1980	62	0
-	1955	62	0
-	1918	62	3

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we got a relaxation of the warm spring pattern for a time heading into late May here. Some spots had record highs here earlier this month for a day. But anytime we see all-time record heat like International Falls got back in May, it gives us a preview of what is possible as we approach the summer solstice now. Overall for the CONUS this averaged out as the 2nd warmest spring. So any comfortable temperatures that we have been getting recently is a real gift against such a warm background state.

 

International Falls set the all-time warmest minimum minimum by 4° in May

Time Series Summary for International Falls Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of May Highest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2025	70	0
2	1992	66	0
-	1988	66	0
3	1991	64	0
-	1919	64	0
4	2018	63	0
-	2014	63	0
-	1986	63	0
5	2021	62	0
-	2007	62	0
-	1980	62	0
-	1955	62	0
-	1918	62	3

 

1991 had a much hotter spring at least for us.

We just don't get that kind of weather anymore especially in May.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The same repeating pattern year after year. Same background state. Different night, same ending

Hang in there. I'm sure we'll eventually get the background state that we got in late 2013 until the super el nino ended in early/mid-2016. The -PDO streak can't last the entire decade, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Hang in there. I'm sure we'll eventually get the background state that we got in late 2013 until the super el nino ended in early/mid-2016. The -PDO streak can't last the entire decade, right?

I think it could...

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it could...

Maybe this extreme and historic heatwave will break the pattern.  I, for one, am excited to get 2010, 2011 heat back into the region!!

[LakePaste25]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.
 

 

 

Important to note that the 2021 ridge had some local geographic factors involved in addition to just the strength. There was a major downslope east wind event coming off of the Cascade mountains due to a surface low off the coast. For our region, the equivalent would probably be a downsloping west wind event that would send central park and EWR well beyond all-time record highs.