2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

On 5/30/2025 at 6:31 AM, bluewave said:

The record high pressure east of Japan in association with the record warmth has shifted the timing of the rainy season there.

 

 

 

 

Great news! I'm sure everyone enjoyed the weather.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be very difficult in this much warmer climate for a 09-10 repeat during an El Niño. First, we get more Southeast Ridge link ups with the -NAOs during the 2020s. So New England wouldn’t have to worry about -NAO suppression and confluence like they had in 09-10. The STJ riding too far north would be more of a risk for mixed precipitation from Philly to Boston. Since a stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge would probably mean plenty of cold rain from DC to Philly. But I would still take my chances from around NYC Metro into Southern New England that at least one system would really connect for a major snowstorm.

We are not in a completely different climate than we were in 2010.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be very difficult in this much warmer climate for a 09-10 repeat during an El Niño. First, we get more Southeast Ridge link ups with the -NAOs during the 2020s. So New England wouldn’t have to worry about -NAO suppression and confluence like they had in 09-10. The STJ riding too far north would be more of a risk for mixed precipitation from Philly to Boston. Since a stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge would probably mean plenty of cold rain from DC to Philly. But I would still take my chances from around NYC Metro into Southern New England that at least one system would really connect for a major snowstorm.

I don't think so.. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. Part of that is an elongated trough from the eastern US to Europe. I hear what you are saying, that a SE ridge has been happening for the last 10-15 years, but part of that is the NAO SLP not being negative. If the upper latitude pattern was the same (+PNA/-AO/-NAO), we would most definitely see snowstorms repeated again. You posted an Atlantic map of 09-10 a few pages back in the EA analysis.. Unless you are saying that type of Atlantic pattern is no longer possible? 

80% of months during the year above average.. so even without indices you can say it's 75-80%, but there are definitely climate phenomenon that have led to this snowfall drought. I think you are putting too much stock on the last 10 year wrt climate indices.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, new Cansips temp forecast for winter looks a lot like it's forecast for last winter, maybe colder for midwest. Has a cool summer in the central US for once.

Here's the link for conus temps starting in June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, new Cansips temp forecast for winter looks a lot like it's forecast for last winter, maybe colder for midwest. Has a cool summer in the central US for once.

Here's the link for conus temps starting in June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

Meant to add Cansips' Enso forecast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We are not in a completely different climate than we were in 2010.

The climate across the globe has significantly shifted from the mean state we were in back in 09-10. 

The base state was fairly stable from the late 1800s into the early 1980s. The first temperature jump out of this much colder era occurred in 82-83. So none of the winters which have occurred since then have been as cold as the late 1970s.

We saw a much more significant rise in temperatures during 97-98. So we have not experienced a winter as cold as we saw from the mid 80s up to 1994. Plus this is when the all or nothing snowfall pattern began around NYC Metro after being stable from the early 60s to early 90s with many moderate snowfall seasons in the middle of the range. It’s also why the 95-96 snowfall season hasn’t been rivaled around NYC. 

The next significant rise in global temperatures occurred in 15-16. This is why we haven’t seen a repeat of winters like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15 since then. 

The planet has recently experienced a much greater rise in temperatures to a new higher baseline with the 23-24 winter. So this is why we were not able to see a repeat this past 24-25 winter of the 13-14 analog which was being discussed back in December. This new warmer base state was significantly higher than the 13-14 winter. 

The only way for the climate system to return to a colder baseline would be through major to historic volcanism. But unfortunately such an event in this modern world would be extremely disruptive. Absent any major volcanism, we will just keep shifting the baselines higher with every new periodic global temperature jump. So a whole series of winter analogs prior to 15-16 become out of reach for the new warmer baseline. 
 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The planet has recently experienced a much greater rise in temperatures to a new higher baseline with the 23-24 winter. So this is why we were not able to see a repeat this past 24-25 winter of the 13-14 analog which was being discussed back in December. This new warmer base state was significantly higher than the 13-14 winter. 

The 13-14 analog wasn't even a good match for this past winter. The 12-13 analog was a much better match, as that was a deep -PDO that peaked in the fall. This past winter was colder than 12-13, and had comparable snow totals in most areas, in the Eastern US. Those predicting a 13-14 analog for 24-25 were just grasping on straws.

In 13-14, you still had a -PDO, but it was generally trending towards 0, which was what we have this year. (And of course, the WPAC jet cooperated, unlike in most of 11-12 and 12-13.) If we can have a similar WPAC jet to 13-14, I think a cold and snowy winter in 25-26 is pretty much locked in.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, new Cansips temp forecast for winter looks a lot like it's forecast for last winter, maybe colder for midwest. Has a cool summer in the central US for once.

Here's the link for conus temps starting in June.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025060100&fh=0

1. Atlanta:

-6/1/25 CANSIPS is forecasting JJA of -2.7F vs 1981-2010 avg, which would be coolest since the dry summers of 1997 and 1976, along with +0.5”/month precip. vs 1981-2010.

-How did 6/1/24 CANSIPS do?
  -It forecasted +0.7F. But it verified at +2.9F. So, 6/1/24 CANSIPS was 2.2F too cool. 
  -It forecasted precip of +0.4”/month vs actual of a wetter +1.15”/month. So, it was a bit too dry.

 

2. Tulsa:

-6/1/25 CANSIPS is forecasting JJA of -3.6F vs 1981-2010 avg, which would be coolest since 2004 (wet) and 1967 (slightly wet), along with +0.75”/month precip. vs 1981-2010.

-How did 6/1/24 CANSIPS do?
  -It forecasted +0.9F. But it verified at +1.4F. So, 6/1/24 CANSIPS was 0.5F too cool. 
  -It forecasted precip of +0.25”/month vs actual of a slightly drier -0.31”/month. So, it was a little too wet.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The climate across the globe has significantly shifted from the mean state we were in back in 09-10. 

The base state was fairly stable from the late 1800s into the early 1980s. The first temperature jump out of this much colder era occurred in 82-83. So none of the winters which have occurred since then have been as cold as the late 1970s.

We saw a much more significant rise in temperatures during 97-98. So we have not experienced a winter as cold as we saw from the mid 80s up to 1994. Plus this is when the all or nothing snowfall pattern began around NYC Metro after being stable from the early 60s to early 90s with many moderate snowfall seasons in the middle of the range. It’s also why the 95-96 snowfall season hasn’t been rivaled around NYC. 

The next significant rise in global temperatures occurred in 15-16. This is why we haven’t seen a repeat of winters like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15 since then. 

The planet has recently experienced a much greater rise in temperatures to a new higher baseline with the 23-24 winter. So this is why we were not able to see a repeat this past 24-25 winter of the 13-14 analog which was being discussed back in December. This new warmer base state was significantly higher than the 13-14 winter. 

The only way for the climate system to return to a colder baseline would be through major to historic volcanism. But unfortunately such an event in this modern world would be extremely disruptive. Absent any major volcanism, we will just keep shifting the baselines higher with every new periodic global temperature jump. So a whole series of winter analogs prior to 15-16 become out of reach for the new warmer baseline. 
 

 

 

100% disagree. 

You're constant relying on a reported yearly global temp to dictate a local areas climate makes zero sense. You state way too many opinions as matter of fact.

But the bottom line to assert that everyone is in a different climate than 2010 is downright nuts. In fact, since 2010 i have seen more severe cold snaps than I did in the several decades before then. This morning we saw a low of 42 at Detroit with 30s in outlying areas for the coldest June temp since 2003. 

I can sense your disappointment that NYC did not get a warmer than avg winter in 2024-25 as you counted on to keep up your warm streak, so we have turned the tables now from the expectations for a torch winter in '24-25 to the reality that it was far from torch. So NOW we hear that 2024-25 would've been 2013-14 if it happened 20 years earlier .

Oh and by the way. Ive been on weather forums since 2002. So I am able to clearly remember the "winters are no more" clown talk of the late 1990s. Then we lived through a historic stretch of winters which ended a short decade ago but that some now try to sweep under the rug and discuss the point of no return. It's amazing that we can analyze winters from 130 years ago but minimize the historically severe nature of winters from 10-15 years ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/31/2025 at 7:50 AM, bluewave said:

It would be very difficult in this much warmer climate for a 09-10 repeat during an El Niño. First, we get more Southeast Ridge link ups with the -NAOs during the 2020s. So New England wouldn’t have to worry about -NAO suppression and confluence like they had in 09-10. The STJ riding too far north would be more of a risk for mixed precipitation from Philly to Boston. Since a stronger Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge would probably mean plenty of cold rain from DC to Philly. But I would still take my chances from around NYC Metro into Southern New England that at least one system would really connect for a major snowstorm.

I would suggest that you stop speaking in absolutes and folks would probably be more receptive to these theories.

[FPizz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would suggest that you stop speaking in absolutes and folks would probably be more receptive to these theories.

Thank you! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The 13-14 analog wasn't even a good match for this past winter. The 12-13 analog was a much better match, as that was a deep -PDO that peaked in the fall. This past winter was colder than 12-13, and had comparable snow totals in most areas, in the Eastern US. Those predicting a 13-14 analog for 24-25 were just grasping on straws.

In 13-14, you still had a -PDO, but it was generally trending towards 0, which was what we have this year. (And of course, the WPAC jet cooperated, unlike in most of 11-12 and 12-13.) If we can have a similar WPAC jet to 13-14, I think a cold and snowy winter in 25-26 is pretty much locked in.

The main issue with the 2013-2014 analog was that this past year was -EPO driven than -WPO, but if you compare H5 composites, there were plenty of similarities due to the fairly favorable extra tropical Pacific. 2012-2013 acted more like a warm ENSO event, with a mild December and a very active February/March.

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

100% disagree. 

You're constant relying on a reported yearly global temp to dictate a local areas climate makes zero sense. You state way too many opinions as matter of fact.

But the bottom line to assert that everyone is in a different climate than 2010 is downright nuts. In fact, since 2010 i have seen more severe cold snaps than I did in the several decades before then. This morning we saw a low of 42 at Detroit with 30s in outlying areas for the coldest June temp since 2003. 

I can sense your disappointment that NYC did not get a warmer than avg winter in 2024-25 as you counted on to keep up your warm streak, so we have turned the tables now from the expectations for a torch winter in '24-25 to the reality that it was far from torch. So NOW we hear that 2024-25 would've been 2013-14 if it happened 20 years earlier .

Oh and by the way. Ive been on weather forums since 2002. So I am able to clearly remember the "winters are no more" clown talk of the late 1990s. Then we lived through a historic stretch of winters which ended a short decade ago but that some now try to sweep under the rug and discuss the point of no return. It's amazing that we can analyze winters from 130 years ago but minimize the historically severe nature of winters from 10-15 years ago.

May 2020 34 degrees and snow on May 9th in NYC and June 2023 with a low in the 40s on June 4th are two more examples of it.

The climate is of course warming but there is not this steep climb that is being talked about.  NYC's longest heatwave was in 1953, its most number of 95 degree days was in 1955, its longest streak of 95+ days was in 1944, its most number of 99+ days was in 1949.

 

[snowman19]

The 13-14 analog wasn't even a good match for this past winter. The 12-13 analog was a much better match, as that was a deep -PDO that peaked in the fall. This past winter was colder than 12-13, and had comparable snow totals in most areas, in the Eastern US. Those predicting a 13-14 analog for 24-25 were just grasping on straws.
In 13-14, you still had a -PDO, but it was generally trending towards 0, which was what we have this year. (And of course, the WPAC jet cooperated, unlike in most of 11-12 and 12-13.) If we can have a similar WPAC jet to 13-14, I think a cold and snowy winter in 25-26 is pretty much locked in.

Nothing is locked in for winter on June 1st

[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

May 2020 34 degrees and snow on May 9th in NYC and June 2023 with a low in the 40s on June 4th are two more examples of it.

The climate is of course warming but there is not this steep climb that is being talked about.  NYC's longest heatwave was in 1953, its most number of 95 degree days was in 1955, its longest streak of 95+ days was in 1944, its most number of 99+ days was in 1949.

 

We were 27° in May 2020 with a record 5 days in a row of snowflakes.

That same 1953 heatwave (Aug-Sept) is Detroits longest on record as well. The most deadly was July 1936. Summer 1934 and 1955 were unbearable. I could go on lol.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We were 27° in May 2020 with a record 5 days in a row of snowflakes.

That same 1953 heatwave (Aug-Sept) is Detroits longest on record as well. The most deadly was July 1936. Summer 1934 and 1955 were unbearable. I could go on lol.

damn some of our coldsnaps and heatwaves match up.  How was Summer 1944 out your way? 1948 and 1949? 1944 had 8 days in a row of 95+ 1948 had three straight 100+ days (later matched in 1966) and 1949 had 5 days of 99+ 1953 had two separate superheatwaves here with 4 100+ days split between them lol

1955 set the record for most 95+ days at NYC (16).

July 1936 still has the NYC record (106)

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think what you are saying bluewave is that the NAO would be -0.75 if 09-10 happened today, vs the -1.5 that it was back then. 

[dewydews]

Seems as though the majority of folks on here are too dumb to grasp bluewave's "theories" (despite being logically sound), or there's just some weird cognitive dissonance going on with people being unable to cope with a new, rapidly evolving climate.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

May 2020 34 degrees and snow on May 9th in NYC and June 2023 with a low in the 40s on June 4th are two more examples of it.

June 2023 was helped by the smoke and very low humidity. That wasn't even the coldest average temperature days of the month. We had highs in the 60s, and thus degree heating days, later in the month (during the solstice, on the 21st and 22nd).  

June 4 was only 5-6 degrees below average. June 21-22 was 12-13 degrees below average. That's a temperature departure you see in winter, not during the summer solstice.

[George001]

1 hour ago, dewydews said:

Seems as though the majority of folks on here are too dumb to grasp bluewave's "theories" (despite being logically sound), or there's just some weird cognitive dissonance going on with people being unable to cope with a new, rapidly evolving climate.

I agree with Bluewave for the most part, but calling most of the people here dumb isnt productive nor is it true. Don’t get me wrong, blatant climate change denial is dumb, and I am not afraid to call people who believe that bullshit dumb. However, im not seeing that here. As someone who agrees with a good 90% of what Bluewave says, I actually think it is a good thing that people are challenging his theories and offering different points of view. There is room for debate in regards to the degree of attribution and how much our recent bad stretch is due to climate change vs just plain old bad luck. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Nothing is locked in for winter on June 1st

It was a hypothetical statement....which inherently implies that it's not "locked" in...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, dewydews said:

Seems as though the majority of folks on here are too dumb to grasp bluewave's "theories" (despite being logically sound), or there's just some weird cognitive dissonance going on with people being unable to cope with a new, rapidly evolving climate.

Where did I imply that it was wasn't logically sound??? The implication of my statement was that any deduction beyond the fact that there is baseline warming going on is speculation. I have been pretty consistent with expressing that his suggestions are very viable, but we need to get into the next decade to be certain. No one knows for sure how the warming is going to alter global oscillations and circulations moving forward...including Chris because if he did, I can promise you he wouldn't be camped out in front of his laptop posting on a weather forum like the rest of us.

Funny thing is that he was actually arguing that I would do BETTER if a replica 2009-2010 season were to take place, as I am near the MA/NH border...so no denial here, which is the term you were looking for...cognitive dissonance is a term used to describe the internal strife that results from living in a manner that is in conflict with your own self esteem, or firmly held convictions, so its not a defense mechanism. Disagreeing with someone doesn't have to mean you are in conflict... its actually more frequently quite the opposite.

As far as the "dumb"comment, usually those that feel the need to hurl those insults are working with the most pronounced deficits....I'll leave it at that-

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I agree with Bluewave for the most part, but calling most of the people here dumb isnt productive nor is it true. Don’t get me wrong, blatant climate change denial is dumb, and I am not afraid to call people who believe that bullshit dumb. However, im not seeing that here. As someone who agrees with a good 90% of what Bluewave says, I actually think it is a good thing that people are challenging his theories and offering different points of view. There is room for debate in regards to the degree of attribution and how much our recent bad stretch is due to climate change vs just plain old bad luck. 

Chris is very bright and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ends up being 100% correct, but it's still pretty speculative at this point.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think it's really silly that global warming is moving index patterns. This isn't something that is "maybe" to me, or "wait until the next decade". We have been in a west-based La Nina global state (tropical forcing on the dateline), and it has flexed the SE ridge along with probably a +AMO. I'll give that Winters are probably +3-4F warmer, but then you  can correlate everything to what's going on everywhere else almost 100%. The biggest anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, something was happening that did not let -NAO/-EPO penetrate.. it's probably connected to a Strong El Nino the following year and record Atlantic SSTs for 2023 and 2024. Since then -NAO's have run cooler over the last 2 Winters.  83% of Winter months have been +NAO since Dec 11.. 14 years. Something like 70% of months have been -PNA. It's no mystery at all why we are in a snowfall drought. I actually thought that it should have started sooner. I think he's right that things are getting warmer (shocking) but is 20-30 years ahead of time, using the last 7 years to say it's somewhat of a permanent thing. The thing is, the next few Winters might be like this as the decadal states aren't changing anytime soon.