Kmlwx Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Many of the CAMs are pretty underwhelming in terms of sim reflectivity. It will all be a question of whether there is enough forcing and the cap being weak enough to break. I still think the thoughts of the threat being isolated but intense are solid. Wherever a cell develops/tracks could get really hefty hail... I think for the majority of the area this could be a dud. The other thing I saw at least one model showing was a pretty good "leftover" line coming into the area Saturday AM from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Many of the CAMs are pretty underwhelming in terms of sim reflectivity. It will all be a question of whether there is enough forcing and the cap being weak enough to break. I still think the thoughts of the threat being isolated but intense are solid. Wherever a cell develops/tracks could get really hefty hail... I think for the majority of the area this could be a dud. The other thing I saw at least one model showing was a pretty good "leftover" line coming into the area Saturday AM from the west. I think tomorrow and Saturday are going to feature one or two decent cells that drop some good hail, but there will be more famine than feast. Saturday might be a decent elevated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z hrrr is fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think tomorrow and Saturday are going to feature one or two decent cells that drop some good hail, but there will be more famine than feast. Saturday might be a decent elevated convection. Will the storms tomorrow have good photogenic supercellular structure that would be worth a local chase? Also where in the area would you generally target? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z hrrr is fun The complex that arrives after dark reminds me of a way toned down June 2012 lol. Obviously temps nowhere close to that. But a line surging across the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 47 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The complex that arrives after dark reminds me of a way toned down June 2012 lol. Obviously temps nowhere close to that. But a line surging across the mountains. Today has a sneaky thunderstorm day feel and look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago 12z NAM Nest soundings suggest nastiness tomorrow evening into nighttime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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