GaWx Posted Sunday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:35 PM I created a new thread for tomorrow’s wintry event in mainly NC/VA: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed. 6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold 0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days 0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground 0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL 0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Sunday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:37 PM Christmas hurricane? 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 12:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:43 AM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM 18z GFS not far from something good next Sunday/Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted yesterday at 01:21 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:21 AM 9 hours ago, GaWx said: Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed. 6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold 0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days 0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground 0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL 0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday I'm guessing mid 20's for the ATL lows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:46 AM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Is anyone going to mention how the Euro has gone warmer again in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Pleasant Christmas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:03 PM After a slight moderation leading into Christmas weeek, the 06Z GFS drops the arctic hammer across the U.S. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 PM Ensembles have been showing a breakdown of the west coast ridge for a while. This should give us a nice relaxation in temperatures. DT was having none of it during his extended discussion that I saw on Saturday.We will have to see what actually occurs and if the breakdown does occur. Telecommunications weren’t strong enough last I checked to argue one way or the other. La Niña is waning which has big implications down the road.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:11 PM DT is about as accurate as Punxsutawney Phil 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:47 PM The Mjo will have a say also and most of the mid to long range warm ups haven't really verified this season except a couple. We will see though. Probably have a relaxation then another pattern shuffle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Pleasant Christmas? I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:56 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:56 PM 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol. I don't mind a warmup. My kids need to play outside (and me). 30s and rain is just miserable weather, especially with young kids who have tons of energy. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:18 PM 20 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Christmas hurricane? End times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 5 hours ago, wncsnow said: I don't mind a warmup. My kids need to play outside (and me). 30s and rain is just miserable weather, especially with young kids who have tons of energy. This sounds like my life right now. Add in working from home and it's chaos. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 48 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: This sounds like my life right now. Add in working from home and it's chaos. What?!? We need cold and snow! What have you done to yourself man? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Wouldn’t mind a little stretch of mild myself. Would love to be able to play some golf and get out with the grands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago And the 18z GFS has a doozy leading up to Christmas for parts of NC. TW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, CentralNC said: What?!? We need cold and snow! What have you done to yourself man? Lol. I still like cold and snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago We’ve seen headfakes regarding modeled warmth several times this fall, but Christmas week seems to be trending warmer and warmer across ensembles, ops, everything. Hopium can only get you so far! I think the pattern relaxation occurs that week but how long it lasts is tbd. With no southern stream energy flying around and a continued parade of Canadian clippers a reset might not be the worse thing bc no one’s scoring a big storm in this current regime without the motherload of luck (looking at you southern VA folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 13 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Wouldn’t mind a little stretch of mild myself. Would love to be able to play some golf and get out with the grands. Im good with the weather being cold and gloomy. Now, my family would like some sun and warm. I love the dark gloomy days. Just want to add some snow to the mix . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: We’ve seen headfakes regarding modeled warmth several times this fall, but Christmas week seems to be trending warmer and warmer across ensembles, ops, everything. Hopium can only get you so far! I think the pattern relaxation occurs that week but how long it lasts is tbd. With no southern stream energy flying around and a continued parade of Canadian clippers a reset might not be the worse thing bc no one’s scoring a big storm in this current regime without the motherload of luck (looking at you southern VA folks) Yeah, the overnight models were not good for Christmas week. They seem to indicate next week's moderation will last more than a few days. Still a lot of super cold air in Canada just waiting to dump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Saturday has been a crazy flip! Here the GFS went from a projected high around freezing here on the 6z run Sunday to a high of near 60 on today’s 6z!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Friday may deliver another snow for the Virginias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago Friday may deliver another snow for the Virginias. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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