Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

I created a new thread for tomorrow’s wintry event in mainly NC/VA:

 

[GaWx]

 Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? 
 
 The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed.

6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold

0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days

0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground

0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL

0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Christmas hurricane?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

18z GFS not far from something good next Sunday/Monday.  

[suzook]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? 
 
 The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed.

6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold

0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days

0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground

0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL

0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

I'm guessing mid 20's for the ATL lows.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Is anyone going to mention how the Euro has gone warmer again in the long range?

[wncsnow]

Pleasant Christmas? 

[Upstate Tiger]

After a slight moderation leading into Christmas weeek, the 06Z GFS drops the arctic hammer across the U.S. 

 

 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Ensembles have been showing a breakdown of the west coast ridge for a while. This should give us a nice relaxation in temperatures. DT was having none of it during his extended discussion that I saw on Saturday.


We will have to see what actually occurs and if the breakdown does occur. Telecommunications weren’t strong enough last I checked to argue one way or the other. La Niña is waning which has big implications down the road.


.

[wncsnow]

DT is about as accurate as Punxsutawney Phil 

[Met1985]

The Mjo will have a say also and most of the mid to long range warm ups haven't really verified this season except a couple.  We will see though.  Probably have a relaxation then another pattern shuffle.

[BooneWX]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Pleasant Christmas? 

I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol.

I don't mind a warmup. My kids need to play outside (and me). 30s and rain is just miserable weather, especially with young kids who have tons of energy. 

[Snowacane]

20 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christmas hurricane?

End times

[HKY_WX]

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I don't mind a warmup. My kids need to play outside (and me). 30s and rain is just miserable weather, especially with young kids who have tons of energy. 

This sounds like my life right now. Add in working from home and it's chaos.