Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

I created a new thread for tomorrow’s wintry event in mainly NC/VA:

 

[GaWx]

 Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? 
 
 The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed.

6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold

0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days

0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground

0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL

0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Christmas hurricane?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Upstate Tiger]

18z GFS not far from something good next Sunday/Monday.  

[suzook]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? 
 
 The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed.

6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold

0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days

0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground

0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL

0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

I'm guessing mid 20's for the ATL lows.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Is anyone going to mention how the Euro has gone warmer again in the long range?

[wncsnow]

Pleasant Christmas? 

[Upstate Tiger]

After a slight moderation leading into Christmas weeek, the 06Z GFS drops the arctic hammer across the U.S. 

 

 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Ensembles have been showing a breakdown of the west coast ridge for a while. This should give us a nice relaxation in temperatures. DT was having none of it during his extended discussion that I saw on Saturday.


We will have to see what actually occurs and if the breakdown does occur. Telecommunications weren’t strong enough last I checked to argue one way or the other. La Niña is waning which has big implications down the road.


.

[wncsnow]

DT is about as accurate as Punxsutawney Phil 

[Met1985]

The Mjo will have a say also and most of the mid to long range warm ups haven't really verified this season except a couple.  We will see though.  Probably have a relaxation then another pattern shuffle.

[BooneWX]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Pleasant Christmas? 

I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m off that week and would really enjoy some fishing in lieu of watching it rain and be 38°. Hope it trends warmer not gonna lie lol.

I don't mind a warmup. My kids need to play outside (and me). 30s and rain is just miserable weather, especially with young kids who have tons of energy. 

[Snowacane]

20 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christmas hurricane?

End times